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Distributional and Fiscal Analysis of a National Guaranteed Basic Income – A focus on Canadians with a disability

Published on April 19, 2021

On April 7, 2021 PBO published a report regarding a proposed Guaranteed Basic Income (GBI)

Parliamentarians requested details regarding the distributional impact on Canadians with a disability – specifically those who are eligible for the disability tax credit.

Table 1 shows that of the roughly 1 million Canadians eligible for the disability tax credit, just over half (544,000) were in the 18 to 64 age category and thus eligible for GBI.  Of those eligible, the majority (488,000 or 89.8%) are estimated to see an 11.2% increase in their disposable income, which is equivalent to about $5,000.  On the other hand, roughly 56,000 Canadians (10.2%) with a disability would be worse off, with an average decline in their disposable income of 3.6% or some $2,500. 

Overall, PBO estimates the total loss (gain) among Canadians with disabilities is $139 million ($2.5 billion) in 2022.

Table 1: Net gainers and net losers from the GBI among disabled people, by gender

 

Sex

Men

Women

Both

Unit Count (000)

521

522

1,043

Net beneficiaries (000)

258

230

488

Beneficiaries’ percentage share of disabled population

24.7%

22.1%

46.8%

Average disposable income of winners, pre-GBI scenario 

$51,022 

$38,309 

$45,028 

Change in disposable income of net beneficiaries ($)

$4,998 

$5,102 

$5,047 

Change in disposable income of net beneficiaries (%)

9.8%

13.3%

11.2%

Total change in the disposable income of net beneficiaries (M)

1,290

1,175

2,465

Individuals with income losses (000)

25

31

56

Percentage share of individuals with income losses

2.4%

2.9%

5.3%

Average disposable income of losers, pre-GBI scenario 

$92,047 

$52,541 

$70,240 

Change in disposable income of individuals with income losses ($)

($1,103)

($3,629)

($2,497)

Change in disposable income of individuals with income losses (%)

-1.2%

-6.9%

-3.6%

Total change in the disposable income of individuals with income losses (M)

-27

-111

-139

Source:                         Source: PBO calculations using 2022 SPSD/M.