Comparison of Real GDP Growth Forecasts
PBO’s most recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) was published on October 13 and incorporated economic data up to and including September 30. This note provides a comparison of PBO’s real GDP growth projection to recent external forecasts.
PBO’s most recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) was published on October 13 and incorporated economic data up to and including September 30. This note provides a comparison of PBO’s real GDP growth projection to recent external forecasts.
PBO’s projection of Canadian real GDP growth in 2022 (Figure 1) and 2023 (Figure 2) in its October EFO is well within the range of recent external forecasters surveyed by Consensus Economics in October (released on October 13).
Consensus Economics
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Consensus Economics
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
External forecasts are taken from the October 2022 Consensus Economics survey (released on October 13). IMF forecasts are from the October 2022 World Economic Outlook. OECD forecasts are taken from the September 2022 OECD Economic Outlook.
Consensus Economics
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Consensus Economics
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
The Consensus Economics October survey also included longer-term consensus forecasts. Figure 3 compares PBO’s October EFO real GDP projection for Canada over 2022 to 2027 with the October consensus forecast over the same period. Over the period 2022 to 2027, PBO projects real GDP growth in Canada to average 2.1 per cent annually, which is in line with the consensus forecast (2.05 per cent annually on average).
The Consensus Economics October survey also included longer-term consensus forecasts. Figure 3 compares PBO’s October EFO real GDP projection for Canada over 2022 to 2027 with the October consensus forecast over the same period. Over the period 2022 to 2027, PBO projects real GDP growth in Canada to average 2.1 per cent annually, which is in line with the consensus forecast (2.05 per cent annually on average).
Consensus Economics
Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Consensus Economics
Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer