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Distributional analysis of carbon pricing

Published on April 17, 2024
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The counterfactual scenario used in the report reflects the broad removal of carbon pricing\u2014that is, the removal of the federal-equivalent fuel charge and output-based pricing system (OBPS). Estimates of household net costs incorporating \u201cfiscal and economic impacts\u201d reflect the broad economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing.\n\n[April 17 2024 Additional Analysis](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-003--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone)\n\nJuly 4, 2024: Text in the March 24, 2022 version of this report was revised to ensure consistency with the economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing (that is, the fuel charge and output-based pricing system). Estimates of economic impacts and household costs have not been revised.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une analyse distributive de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan du gouvernement intitul\u00e9 \u00ab Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine \u00bb.\n\nLe 17 avril 2024 : Les estimations des r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es dans ce rapport (tableau 3-1) refl\u00e8tent la mise en \u0153uvre d\u2019une tarification du carbone \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 celle du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale. Le sc\u00e9nario contrefactuel utilis\u00e9 dans le rapport refl\u00e8te la suppression g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de la tarification du carbone, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire la suppression de l\u2019\u00e9quivalent f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de la redevance sur les combustibles et du syst\u00e8me de tarification fond\u00e9 sur le rendement (STFR). Les estimations des co\u00fbts nets pour les m\u00e9nages int\u00e9grant les \u00ab incidences financi\u00e8res et \u00e9conomiques \u00bb refl\u00e8tent les incidences \u00e9conomiques au sens large d\u2019une tarification du carbone \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 celle du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral.\n\n[Analyse compl\u00e9mentaire du 17 avril 2024](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-003--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone)\n\n4 juillet 2024 : Le texte de la version du 24 mars 2022 de ce rapport a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9 pour assurer la coh\u00e9rence avec l\u2019incidence \u00e9conomique de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire la redevance sur les combustibles et le syst\u00e8me de tarification fond\u00e9 sur le rendement). Les estimations des incidences \u00e9conomiques et des co\u00fbts pour les m\u00e9nages n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9es.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Under the Government\u2019s A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy (HEHE) climate plan, the federal carbon levy is set to rise by $15 per year from $50 per tonne in 2022 until it reaches $170 per tonne in 2030.","fr":"Dans le cadre du plan climatique du gouvernement intitul\u00e9 Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine (plan climatique), la taxe f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur le carbone devrait augmenter de 15 dollars par ann\u00e9e, passant de 50 dollars par tonne en 2022 \u00e0 170 dollars par tonne en 2030."}},{"content":{"en":"When losses in economic efficiency are added to fiscal impacts of federal carbon pricing, the net carbon cost increases for all households in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.","fr":"Lorsque les pertes d\u2019efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique sont ajout\u00e9es aux incidences fiscales de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone, le co\u00fbt net du carbone augmente pour tous les m\u00e9nages de l\u2019Ontario, du Manitoba, de la Saskatchewan et de l\u2019Alberta."}},{"content":{"en":"Most households in provinces under the backstop will see a net loss resulting from federal carbon pricing under the HEHE plan. That is, household carbon costs will exceed the Climate Action Incentive payments households receive.","fr":"La plupart des m\u00e9nages des provinces o\u00f9 le filet de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 s\u2019applique subiront une perte nette r\u00e9sultant de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan climatique. C\u2019est-\u00e0-dire que le co\u00fbt du carbone pour les m\u00e9nages sera sup\u00e9rieur aux paiements de l\u2019incitatif \u00e0 agir pour le climat que les m\u00e9nages re\u00e7oivent."}},{"content":{"en":"Relative to disposable income, our estimates of household net carbon costs continue to show a progressive impact that is, larger net costs for higher income households.","fr":"En ce qui concerne le revenu disponible, nos estimations des co\u00fbts nets du carbone pour les m\u00e9nages continuent de montrer une incidence progressive, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire des co\u00fbts nets plus importants pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"We estimate that carbon pricing under HEHE will reduce the budgetary balance (increase the budgetary deficit) by $0.9 billion in 2021-22 and ultimately by $5.2 billion in 2030-31.","fr":"Nous estimons que la tarification du carbone dans le cadre du plan Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine r\u00e9duira le solde budg\u00e9taire (augmentera le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire) de 0,9 milliard de dollars en 2021-2022 et, \u00e0 terme, de 5,2 milliards de dollars en 2030-2031."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122032S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Bagnoli, Philip and Duncan, Krista and Scholz, Tim},\n title={A Distributional Analysis of Federal Carbon Pricing under A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122032S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Bagnoli, Philip and Duncan, Krista and Scholz, Tim},\n title={Une analyse distributive de la tarification f\\\u0027{e}d\\\u0027{e}rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan \u00ab Un environnement sain et une \\\u0027{e}conomie saine \u00bb},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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2030","slug":"RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/7590f619bb5d3b769ce09bdbc7c1ccce75ccd8b1bcfb506fc601a2409640bfdd"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/8886610d24c9ee4390e968a2fc6e736e1016819bc3e80cd58e04c6ab8400f977"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/471920ac275b376b60f56d6b1b326b4cfe0e12284d11c63107330b6849d58dd1","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d02dbc43dd7750d74fed9ac98cf33bb72573b1a18df0389a4740f42c3781bed0","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d82a6aa209b13f8e3b43fdb9aa5e0f8984a3ec69249f0b3bc146ea7971c500a8","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cfe2592f35d4b1b4a4891e1fb7a4d0469c4a5577b8be2e6000494831f511df48","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1713f7167294999c082ce16caca1029f4839366e52571ea4667e02e87e48acc3","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e00001e6e531b2ba40a301660e1b36d4190b9870c7def88ae3c23a3c01467ef8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dc13132b2188a7aab762b1934e28433aeee1ebd37919418a119b73c0072542fe","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f23ee4b0ef3a3a0c125497354a9978ba1f7adb4053f95c0af9c27cf879d531f9"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/65a774a7cada818a04fb27f93cf5d4652b5a4d196a341d42ded210f6901cf54d","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/21faa2ba702f6ba09eae4dad5a89c7876e03bbe9be61949995edb3a8c3d8b355","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f61c5f2415685a2ff51e66d385c5cb8e75b9c1c67f148ea2a5c83daf1ec18a30","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8b2497f5c8533ec6a362177c9574218777552e1f067e5bd421185ecd28f04a72","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/18851aac0f219f5e8ce813792130a582dfce0aec916281fad2404988b82abb38","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e6707a2e4f674b9d20f076743311e400bc6be7e07961fd6c8de874028df1aac8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d6c9b936b9a3e13e709c65a6785ae4c14ead7ad7ce4dbc93f349fd2d8bcd4a06","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/04b42764fc7ff98968c3424f47cc2ebef9a8339033e0d7a9fce1f62d105d6e03"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a distributional analysis of the federal fuel charge under the Government\u2019s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan.\n\nApril 17 2024: Estimates of household net costs incorporating \u201cfiscal and economic impacts\u201d reflect the broad economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing\u2014that is, the economic impact of the fuel charge and output-based pricing system (OBPS).\n\n[April 17 2024: Distributional analysis of carbon pricing (Additional Analysis)](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-003--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone)\n\n[March 24 2022: A Distributional Analysis of Federal Carbon Pricing under A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy (Report)](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco)\n\nJuly 4, 2024: Text in the March 30, 2023 version of this report was revised to ensure consistency with the economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing (that is, the fuel charge and output-based pricing system). Estimates of economic impacts and household costs have not been revised.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une analyse distributive de la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles dans le cadre du Plan de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions du Canada pour 2030.\n\nLe 17 avril 2024 : Les estimations des co\u00fbts nets pour les m\u00e9nages int\u00e9grant les \u00ab incidences financi\u00e8res et \u00e9conomiques \u00bb refl\u00e8tent les incidences \u00e9conomiques au sens large d\u2019une tarification du carbone \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 celle du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral \u2014 c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019\u00e9quivalent f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de la redevance sur les combustibles et du syst\u00e8me de tarification fond\u00e9 sur le rendement (STFR).\n\n[Analyse compl\u00e9mentaire du 17 avril 2024 : Analyse distributive de la tarification du carbone](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-003--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone)\n\n[Rapport du 24 mars 2022 : Une analyse distributive de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan \u00ab Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine \u00bb](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco)\n\n4 juillet 2024 : Le texte de la version du 30 mars 2023 de ce rapport a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9 pour assurer la coh\u00e9rence avec l\u2019incidence \u00e9conomique de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire la redevance sur les combustibles et le syst\u00e8me de tarification fond\u00e9 sur le rendement). Les estimations des incidences \u00e9conomiques et des co\u00fbts pour les m\u00e9nages n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9es.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Under the Government\u2019s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the federal fuel charge is set to rise from $65 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023-24 to $170 per tonne in 2030-31.","fr":"Selon le Plan de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions du Canada pour 2030, la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles doit passer de 65 $ la tonne d\u2019\u00e9quivalent en dioxyde de carbone en 2023-2024 \u00e0 170 $ la tonne en 2030-2031."}},{"content":{"en":"In 2023-24, the federal fuel charge will be expanded to include Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador. The federal fuel charge will continue to apply to Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario.","fr":"En 2023-2024, la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles sera \u00e9tendue \u00e0 la Nouvelle-\u00c9cosse, \u00e0 l\u2019\u00cele-du-Prince-\u00c9douard et \u00e0 Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador. La redevance continuera de s\u2019appliquer \u00e0 l\u2019Alberta, \u00e0 la Saskatchewan, au Manitoba et \u00e0 l\u2019Ontario."}},{"content":{"en":"When both fiscal and economic impacts of the federal fuel charge are considered, we estimate that most households will see a net loss, paying more in fuel charges and GST, as well as receiving lower incomes, compared to the Climate Action Incentive payments they receive and lower personal income taxes they pay.","fr":"Selon nos estimations, si l\u2019on tient compte des r\u00e9percussions \u00e0 la fois financi\u00e8res et \u00e9conomiques de la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles, la plupart des m\u00e9nages enregistreront une perte nette, en payant davantage des sommes plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es en redevances sur les combustibles et en TPS, et en percevant des revenus plus faibles en comparaison des paiements de l\u2019incitatif \u00e0 agir pour le climat qu\u2019ils re\u00e7oivent et de la baisse d\u2019imp\u00f4t sur le revenu des particuliers qu\u2019ils acquittent."}},{"content":{"en":"However, relative to disposable income, our estimates of household net cost of the federal fuel charge show a progressive impact that is, larger net costs for higher income households.","fr":"Cependant, en proportion du revenu disponible, nos estimations du co\u00fbt net pour les m\u00e9nages de la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles indiquent une incidence progressive, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire des co\u00fbts nets sup\u00e9rieurs pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"In 2023-24, with the federal fuel charge set at $65 per tonne, we estimate that the Government will collect and return $11.8 billion in fuel charges in the seven provinces where the charge applies. With the charge rising to $170 per tonne in 2030-31, we project that the Government will collect and return $25.0 billion in fuel charges.","fr":"En 2023-2024, avec une redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles de 65 $ la tonne, le gouvernement devrait percevoir et remettre 11,8 milliards de dollars de la redevance sur les combustibles dans les sept provinces o\u00f9 elle s\u2019applique. Quand la redevance passera \u00e0 170 $ la tonne en 2030-2031, il devrait percevoir et remettre 25 milliards de dollars."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223028S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={A Distributional Analysis of the Federal Fuel Charge under the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223028S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={Analyse distributive de la redevance f\\\u0027{e}d\\\u0027{e}rale sur les combustibles dans le cadre du Plan de r\\\u0027{e}duction des \\\u0027{e}missions pour 2030},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}