The Evolution of Canada’s Social Housing Stock

Social housing is an important part of the targets and spending plans under CMHC’s 2017 National Housing Strategy.

We define “social housing” as housing which is both targeted to low-income households and offered at below-market rents, in a manner broadly consistent with the usage of that term by the OECD.[^1] These units are also referred to as rent assisted units, low-income units or rent-geared-to-income units.

Social housing is usually public housing (owned by the government) or community housing (owned by non-profits or co-operatives). In addition, spending on public and community housing can be fairly characterized as spending on the social housing units within that portfolio as social housing units drive a project’s need for subsidies. However, not all public and community housing units are targeted, and some social housing is offered in privately-owned rental housing, usually through a rent supplement that makes up the difference between an income-based rent and the unit’s market value.

Canada’s 2017 National Housing Strategy set an overall target of removing 530,000 households from core housing need by 2027-28.[^2] This overall target was to be achieved, in part, by targets to:

Preserve 255,559 provincially-administered social housing units;[^3]
Preserve 13,700 federally-administered social housing units;[^4] and,
Add 62,000 new social housing units.[^5]

As set out in our recent Model for Projecting the Number of Households in Core Housing Need, we expect that the preservation of Canada’s social housing will have the greatest impact on core housing need of all the programs included in Canada’s National Housing Strategy.[^6]

Support for existing social housing also accounts for the largest share of planned program spending on housing affordability. Over the course of Canada’s National Housing Strategy for 2018-19 to 2027-28, CMHC plans to spend a total of $6.4 billion to support federally-administered social housing, $11.5 billion to support and expand provincially-administered social housing and $14.7 billion on programs that support the addition of new social housing.[^7]

Despite the importance of social housing to CMHC’s housing strategy and spending, Canada lacks reliable data to understand the size and evolution of Canada’s social housing stock. Compiling and correcting the best available data, we estimate that Canada has roughly 600,000 to 700,000 units of social housing and this stock has been relatively stable over the last 30 years. However, these estimates may not be accurate and do not permit firm conclusions regarding the evolution of Canada’s social housing stock since the start of Canada’s National Housing Strategy in 2017. CMHC’s targets under the 2017 National Housing Strategy relate to the preservation of a subset of these social housing units, plus the addition of 62,000 new social housing units.

One alternative approach to understanding the evolution of Canada’s social housing stock is to look at investments in social housing over time, both in terms of spending and units created. In this regard, there is a significant discrepancy between when Canada’s social housing stock was built and when it was paid for. Canada’s social housing stock was largely built prior to 1994, with 87% of the 2023 social and affordable housing stock created prior to 1996. However, the federal spending that enabled these units was provided through operating agreements that spanned the subsequent decades, continuing to today for some units. This contrasts with the approach taken by programs since that time, which have primarily supported the creation of new social housing through upfront capital contributions.

National Data Regarding Canada’s Social Housing Stock

There are four national data sources regarding Canada’s social housing stock:

Statistics Canada’s Census and Canadian Housing Survey,
CMHC Social and Affordable Housing Survey,
CMHC’s Canadian Housing Statistics, and
Provincial and territorial progress reports submitted under the National Housing Strategy.

Only CMHC’s Canadian Housing Statistics is available prior to 2011.

While all four sources have issues with reliability, these issues are especially acute for the Social and Affordable Housing Survey prior to 2022 and for provincial reporting, where there are changes in the social housing stock from year to year, and in the composition of that stock that cannot reasonably be attributed to actual changes in the social housing stock.

Households in Subsidized Housing or Units of Housing by Data Source

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer based on Statistics Canada’s Census and Canadian Housing Survey, CMHC’s Social and Affordable Housing Survey, CMHC Canadian Housing Statistics, Provincial Reporting under the NHS, and other data provided by CMHC.

To produce the best possible estimate of Canada’s social housing stock, it is necessary to synthesize information from these sources and adjust for their limitations.

In some cases, these data sources did not capture units that were within the definition of what they were trying to measure. Notably:

The Social and Affordable Housing Survey omits units managed by the Société d'habitation du Québec (SHQ) and units on reserves; and,
Early provincial reporting included only units with renewed agreements for many provinces, rather than the remaining stock of public and community housing.

In addition, none of these data sources directly measure Canada’s social housing stock as we define it. These sources all define what they were measuring in a way that includes some units which are not social housing and omits other units which are social housing. Notably:

All data sources may include non-targeted units.
Federal administrative data and provincial reporting exclude social housing which is not receiving ongoing federal support, which represents a growing share of social housing over time.

Some of these issues can be partially resolved through adjustments, such as filtering for non-market units where possible, including omitted portions of the social housing stock, and averaging volatile year-to-year changes. Other limitations cannot be resolved, especially the increasing incompleteness of federal administrative data and the periods for which data is available. As a result, different data must be used to inform estimates for different periods.

With the above noted-adjustments, the best available data suggest that Canada has roughly 600,000 to 700,000 units of social housing and this stock has been relatively stable over the last 30 years. Expressed relative to Canada’s overall housing stock, our estimates represent a decline in the share of dwellings which are social housing from 6.2% in 1991 to 4.1% in 2021. However, these estimates may not be accurate and do not permit firm conclusions regarding the evolution of Canada’s social housing stock since the start of Canada’s National Housing Strategy in 2017. These estimates also omit social housing on reserves created outside of CMHC’s On-Reserve Housing Program.

Estimated Social Housing Stock by Estimation Method

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

National Data Regarding Social Housing Investments

Another approach to understanding the evolution of Canada’s social housing stock is to look at investments in social housing over time, both in terms of spending and units/beds created. In this regard, there is a significant discrepancy between when Canada’s social housing stock was built and when it was paid for.

Units/Beds Created

Almost all federally administered community housing was constructed prior to 1994. Since 1994, new federally-administered units have been exclusively or almost exclusively on-reserve units, with a total of about 30,000 such units built from 1995 to 2021. Most provincial and territorially administered housing was also created with federal support prior to 1994.[^16] Nevertheless, federal support for the construction of new “affordable” housing of various definitions has been provided under various subsequent programs.[^17]

Claimed Commitments to New Public, Community and Rent Supplement Housing Units under Federal Programs by Year

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer based on CMHC’ Canadian Housing Statistics, Annual Reports, National Housing Strategy Progress reports, and National Housing Strategy targets.

Units are counted from date of commitment rather than date of start/completion. Some annual values are interpolated to hit cumulative numbers of units created where annual data was not available. Units created for 2025 onwards reflect linear achievement of the targets of Canada’s National Housing Strategy (or commitments to date where greater).

There are major issues with comparing and summing the units created across programs and with using this as a proxy for changes in the social housing stock or public and community housing stocks. One issue is stacking where the same units may be counted under multiple programs. For example, a unit might be built under the Rapid Housing Fund then double counted as a new rent assisted unit under the Federal/Provincial/Territorial Partnership. Another issue is that units created under different programs vary significantly in the share of units which are social housing.[^18] Furthermore, the expansion of new rent assisted units under the Federal/Provincial/Territorial Partnership includes rent supplements provided in private rentals, which expand the social housing stock without resulting in a non-profit or co-op housing completion. Also, there can be significant delays between commitments and completions. These issues result in significant discrepancies between the claimed number of units created through new commitments, and the number of completed units of public and community housing observed through CMHC’s Starts and Completions Survey, as shown in the figure below.

Comparison of Summed Commitments to New Public, Community and Rent Supplement (RS) Housing and Completed Public and Community Housing by Year

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer based on CMHC data.

Commitments are based on CMHC’ Canadian Housing Statistics, Annual Reports, and National Housing Strategy Progress reports. Values for some years are linearly interpolated to hit reported cumulative commitments. Completions are based on CMHC’s Starts and Completions Survey based on observations of CMHC field enumerators and include government funded social and affordable housing, non-profit groups building social affordable housing, and units constructed under affordable homeownership programs (e.g. Habitat for Humanity). Completions are only collected in population centres 10,000+ up to 2022, and in CMAs (population 100,000+), plus Charlottetown, Whitehorse, and Yellowknife for 2023 onwards.

An alternative approach to determining the timing of social housing additions is to look at the period of construction of the housing currently used as social and affordable housing. As of 2023, 87% of social and affordable housing was created prior to 1996.[^19]

Spending

Although Canada’s non-profit and cooperative housing stock was largely built prior to 1994, the federal spending that enabled these units was provided through operating agreements that spanned the subsequent decades. For example, under the post-1978 Cooperative Housing programs, CMHC did not provide any capital contributions and financing was provided by approved private lenders. CMHC’s assistance for the projects took the form of annual contributions over the following 30-35 years, with contributions set to reduce interest rates and provide rent assistance for low-income residents.[^20] In this way, CMHC spent $1.9 billion on cooperative housing from 1997 to 2016, even though no new federally administered cooperative housing was constructed during that period. This spending supported construction which had occurred decades earlier.

This differs substantially from the approach taken under the Affordable Housing Initiative, Investment in Affordable Housing, and Affordable Housing Fund. Under these “affordable” housing programs, CMHC only provided/provides upfront contributions accepting no future responsibilities in relation to those units. This reduces the number of units whose construction is supported in the current year but also avoids creating future funding responsibilities.

CMHC Real Spending on Public and Community Housing by Year ($ millions of 2025 dollars)

Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer based on CMHC’ Canadian Housing Statistics and Information Request response.

Real spending power is adjusted based on Statistics Canada’s implicit price index for residential structures, including the PBO Econ model projection for that index. Spending for 2024 to 2027 reflects planned spending. Some minor programs are omitted, including the Federal Lands Initiative, Affordable Housing Innovation Fund, and Federal Lands Initiative. Spending data is not available for 1994 to 1996 as it was aggregated with other spending into “Housing Supply”.

Conclusion

There is a lack of reliable data to understand the size and evolution of Canada’s Social Housing Stock, including over the course of Canada’s National Housing Strategy. The best available data suggest that Canada has roughly 600,000 to 700,000 units of social housing (excluding non-CMHC units on reserves) and this stock has been relatively stable over the last 30 years. This reflects a comparison of the best recent estimate that is based on the Social and Affordable Housing Survey, to the best estimate as of 1990 based on CMHC’s number of households assisted through long-term commitments. Although Canada’s non-profit and cooperative housing stock was largely built prior to 1994, the federal spending that enabled these units was provided through operating agreements that continued over the subsequent decades.