Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
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2025 Election Proposal Costing Baseline

Jill Giswold ; Caroline Nicol ; Jason Stanton ; Mark Creighton ; Matt Dong ; Eskandar Elmarzougui ; Albert Kho ; Marianne Laurin ; Chris Matier ; Matthew McGoey ; Ulysse Robert-Lacroix ; Tim Scholz ; Zachary Vrhovsek
Published on March 24, 2025

This analysis presents PBO’s economic and fiscal baseline projection for the 2025 election proposal costing period.

Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s (PBO) general election mandate, this analysis presents an updated fiscal baseline projection. It is a combination of PBO’s fiscal outlook published in Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2025 and reflects measures announced after Fall Economic Statement 2024, up to and including March 14, 2025 (Table A). Given the evolving uncertainty around trade actions, our baseline projection does not include U.S. tariffs but does account for heightened economic uncertainty.

The baseline projection and its underlying assumptions will be used to prepare financial cost estimates during the 2025 election proposal costing (EPC) period. Political parties may use these assumptions and projections to prepare their own cost estimates.

To assist political parties and the public with estimating the potential revenue impacts that would arise from adjusting various federal tax rates, credits, and brackets, we have updated our online Ready Reckoner tool.[^1] In addition, our public debt charge calculator can be used by political parties and the public to estimate the potential impact of policy measures on public debt charges.[^2][^3]