Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit

On January 26, the Government announced that it will increase benefits under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) credit and rename the program. Bill C-19 was tabled in the House of Commons on January 28 and proposes to provide a one‑time payment to individuals equal to 50 per cent of the GST credit’s annual 2025-26 value and to raise the annual credit by 25 per cent for five years starting in July 2026.[^1]

On February 2, PBO published its cost estimate of the new measure, estimating that it will cost $12.4 billion from 2025-26 to 2030-31. This note provides estimates of the number of recipients, as well as estimates of the average additional benefits they will receive. Our estimates were produced using the Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M), adjusted to match the income tax and transfer system for calendar years 2025 to 2029.[^2] To avoid distorting the distributional results, SPSD/M estimates of the number of recipients and average additional benefits were not rescaled.[^3]

One-time 50 per cent top-up (no later than June 2026)

A one-time top-up payment will be provided to individuals that received the GST credit for the July 2025 to June 2026 benefit period. The payment will be valued at 50 per cent of the annual amount and is expected to be paid by June 2026. PBO estimates that there will be 12.1 million recipients with an average one-time payment of $252 per recipient.[^4] Tables 1 and 2 present the estimated number of recipients and the average one-time payment for singles and couples by number of children. Tables 3 and 4 present the estimated number of recipients and the average one-time payment for singles and couples according to the age of the primary recipient.

Benefit period July 2025 to June 2026

On-going increase of 25 per cent (starting in July 2026)

For benefit periods from July 2026 to June 2031, the maximum value of the benefit will be increased by 25 per cent. The benefits are phased out with income, so increasing the maximum value will also expand eligibility, resulting in a greater number of recipients qualifying for the benefit.

PBO estimates that an average of 12.5 million recipients will receive the additional benefit over the July 2026 to June 2027 benefit period. This corresponds to an increase of 549,000 more recipients with an average additional benefit of $138. Tables 5 and 6 present the estimated number of recipients and the average additional payment for singles and couples by number of children. Tables 7 and 8 present the estimated number of recipients and the average additional payment for singles and couples according to the age of the primary recipient.

Supplementary tables (see file at the end of this page) present estimates for benefit periods from July 2027 to June 2031.

Benefit period July 2026 to June 2027