Today, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) published a report that presents three hypothetical scenarios to estimate the cost of the Canada Disability Benefit (CDB), enacted as part of Bill C-22.
The legislation, now called the Canada Disability Benefit Act, will come into force on a day set by order within one year of its receiving Royal Assent (June 22, 2023). For now, most of the design elements of the benefit remain undetermined. Crucial choices regarding eligibility criteria, the benefit amount and delivery method that will dictate the program’s eventual cost are yet to be determined through regulations, rather than legislation.
The report Canada Disability Benefit: Model and Scenarios also summarizes the methodology the PBO used to develop a micro-simulation model that can adjust for the government’s choices, which will influence the program’s cost and the number of beneficiaries.
Alongside the report, the PBO has released a new interactive tool to inform parliamentarians of the potential magnitude of the cost of implementing the CDB.
“Due to the lack of basic information in legislation, most parameters are still unknown, leading to cost estimates that vary widely. Across the three scenarios we examined, the cost of the CDB program could total between $2.1 billion and $20.1 billion in the first full fiscal year of implementation,” explained Yves Giroux, Parliamentary Budget Officer. “Leaving virtually all parameters of such an important program to be determined solely by Cabinet, rather than Parliament, is surprising.”
The tool is available on our website.