Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
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Despite recent drop in house prices, Canadians still face widening affordability gap, says PBO

Ottawa (Ontario), September 29, 2022

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) today released an updated assessment of house prices in Canada.

The report examines house prices relative to a household’s capacity to borrow and pay for the purchase of a house in selected Canadian cities.

The Bank of Canada has increased its policy interest rate by 300 basis points since the beginning of March and the average 5-year fixed mortgage lending rate breached 5% in June—a first since 2010. As a result, despite the reduction in the average house price since the peak in February 2022, housing is becoming less affordable for average households across all the census metropolitan areas (CMAs) considered.

“The gap between the national average house price and what an average household could afford has increased from 45% in December 2021 to 67% in August 2022, a jump of 22 percentage points in just eight months” says Yves Giroux, PBO. “This increase is attributable to higher mortgage rates, which have lowered household borrowing capacity.”

To gauge the potential downward adjustment in house prices in 2022, the report considers scenarios based on assumed increases in mortgage rates (to 6.25% for the 5-year fixed rate) over the remainder of 2022 and household debt service ratios. These illustrative scenarios imply house price declines at the national level (relative to peak) ranging from 12% to 23% by the end of this year.

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    {"id":"RP-2223-014-S","is_published":"2022-09-29T12:57:10.000000Z","release_date":"2022-09-29T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"House Price Assessment \u2013 Update","title_fr":"\u00c9valuation du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s \u2013 Mise \u00e0 jour","internal_id":"RP-2223-014-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides an update of PBO\u2019s assessment of house prices relative to a household\u2019s capacity to borrow and pay for the purchase of a house in selected Canadian cities. In addition, to gauge the potential downward adjustment in house prices in 2022, we consider scenarios based on assumed increases in mortgage rates and household debt service ratios.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une mise \u00e0 jour de l\u2019\u00e9valuation, par le DPB, du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s par rapport \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 des m\u00e9nages d\u2019emprunter et de payer pour l\u2019achat d\u2019une maison dans certaines villes canadiennes. De plus, afin de mesurer un potentiel rajustement \u00e0 la baisse du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s en 2022, nous utilisons des sc\u00e9narios fond\u00e9s sur des hausses attendues des taux hypoth\u00e9caires et sur diff\u00e9rents ratios du service de la dette des m\u00e9nages.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The rapid increase in house prices during the pandemic pushed the national average price up 52 per cent to a peak of $839,600 in February 2022 from $551,100 in February 2020. The average house price has since declined by 7 per cent to $777,200 in August as mortgage rates have increased sharply.","fr":"La hausse rapide du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s durant la pand\u00e9mie a fait grimper de 52 % le prix national moyen, qui est ainsi pass\u00e9 de 551 100 $, en f\u00e9vrier 2020, \u00e0 un sommet de 839 600 $ en f\u00e9vrier 2022. Le prix moyen des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s a depuis recul\u00e9 de 7 %, passant \u00e0 777 200 $ en ao\u00fbt, parall\u00e8lement \u00e0 la forte augmentation des taux hypoth\u00e9caires."}},{"content":{"en":"We estimate that the gap between the average house price and the affordable house price nationally in August was 67 per cent. Average house prices in Hamilton, Toronto, Halifax, Ottawa, Montreal, Victoria and Vancouver were more than 50 per cent higher than their respective affordable prices.","fr":"Nous estimons que, \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale, l\u2019\u00e9cart entre le prix moyen et le prix abordable des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s atteignait 67 % en ao\u00fbt. \u00c0 Hamilton, Toronto, Halifax, Ottawa, Montr\u00e9al, Victoria et Vancouver, le prix moyen des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s surpassait de plus de 50 % les niveaux abordables estim\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"To gauge the potential downward adjustment in house prices in 2022, we construct scenarios based on assumed increases in mortgage rates (to 6.25 per cent for the 5-year fixed rate) over the remainder of 2022 and assumed household debt service ratios. Our scenarios imply price declines at the national level (relative to peak) ranging from 12 per cent to 23 per cent by the end of this year.","fr":"Afin de mesurer un potentiel rajustement \u00e0 la baisse du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s en 2022, nous avons \u00e9tabli des sc\u00e9narios fond\u00e9s sur des hausses attendues des taux hypoth\u00e9caires (qui passeraient \u00e0 6,25 % dans le cas du taux fixe de 5 ans) pour le reste de 2022 et sur diff\u00e9rents ratios du service de la dette des m\u00e9nages. Dans nos sc\u00e9narios, nous estimons que d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, les prix \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale diminueraient de 12 % \u00e0 23 % (par rapport au sommet)."}}]},"updated_at":"2022-09-29T12:57:10.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/ccabbe7e676a533ff044e2643532a0a670f862c0692b927843b35bc8487110df"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/f746ce731c0b8aa8348f6aa6413278447d2bfdc366f239ec452d4d83d86c094d"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/25701fbe40bc3e1230b1f4b2e5055943c6ddb31ab3ad4558c7e900f43650d782","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2d7fd6eec49c6bdc90bb4f3072e061741b4c092ab72d0dde4dd17466414fe070","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2ab495c776e5308a2cd3dbd51d97f75b1ea3b97b77143b5bbe4f6e8dacc53c36","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b29406fa48e0b28a6a9fd7903bd75e4db0b90a99e0b43a7391a7391da2025d02","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fad47dcf7246ebc41e3237f11cd28fa068bf527875e918c7a01b743cbc55b3cb","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/98a06b98f7df2fa21128800f43be3e437212dd9ad9da5dabc737f379972936c0","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/386dee45529e8e81b5a5803e93ce51af23f0c0c9bfc17b4b9b3c8334ee8fe0a1","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/91283212087ca01332b551aacd784239aac32179e39160be01fff406d3bd7147"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f5224a838e6d90674a693e632311c8bd3589ab0d061439f826c9a92a934ee157","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0a9cd2356996eaeb261076cee95e71147092a793bc5ee55795c5364b426d0e2b","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6a28693fab7f7b72c5d5b9bdb40da45b298cdc0114c21875e90e2f1ffb20a781","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/762a793a5176da48d9b8c20da3f8c24d45062d603b6a288833fd20c6c225bc8d","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cea3d809215f59169b301417c3141b5f07274a835b30dc214d0d65d26d9f495c","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3b5457d8ca423610685a64e0b939c037635541cf9adba777728ce21359093c73","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/373dcfb6b0e1069ddd68a3aaa7b06f89a03574d4f1a7514eef8436cb9b8b5d8b","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c299fd868cce9ab63c048a9da5ddcc6828632e280b7eeeca616b8b35ff31ce98"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223014S,\n author={Laurin, Marianne},\n title={House Price Assessment - Update},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223014S,\n author={Laurin, Marianne},\n title={\\\u0027{E}valuation du prix des propri\\\u0027{e}t\\\u0027{e}s - Mise \\`{a} jour},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}