Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
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Federal Disaster Relief Costs Set to Rise Further, Says PBO

Ottawa (Ontario), October 23, 2025

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) has released a new report projecting increases in federal disaster relief spending through the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements (DFAA) program.

The DFAA provides financial support to provinces and territories following disasters caused by natural hazards. Since its launch in 1970, the program has delivered over $14 billion in federal aid, with the majority directed toward flooding, followed by wildfires and storms.

“Federal costs under the program have increased rapidly,” said Jason Jacques, Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer. “Looking ahead, the frequency and severity of natural hazards are expected to rise, which will put more strain on the DFAA program.”

The PBO estimates that federal disaster relief costs will increase from an average of $881 million per year between 2010 and 2024 to $1.8 billion per year between 2025 and 2034. Flooding is expected to be the most expensive disaster, costing the federal government about $1.2 billion annually.

“There remains a high degree of uncertainty in any given year, as natural hazards are inherently unpredictable,” added Mr. Jacques.

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The program has provided more than $14 billion in support since its inception in 1970.","fr":"Le programme des Accords d\u2019aide financi\u00e8re en cas de catastrophe (AAFCC) fournit une aide financi\u00e8re aux gouvernements provinciaux et territoriaux \u00e0 la suite de catastrophes caus\u00e9es par des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes naturels. Le programme a fourni plus de 14 milliards de dollars de soutien depuis sa cr\u00e9ation en 1970."}},{"content":{"en":"Federal costs under the program have increased rapidly. PBO projects that costs will increase further from $881 million per year, on average, over 2010 to 2024 to $1.8 billion per year, on average, over 2025 to 2034. Floods are projected to be the costliest type of disaster, with DFAA support averaging $1.2 billion per year over 2025 to 2034.","fr":"Les co\u00fbts f\u00e9d\u00e9raux dans le cadre du programme ont augment\u00e9 rapidement. Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le co\u00fbt augmentera encore de 881 millions de dollars par an, en moyenne, entre 2010 et 2024 \u00e0 1,8 milliard de dollars par an, en moyenne, entre 2025 et 2034. Les inondations devraient \u00eatre le type de catastrophe le plus co\u00fbteux, le soutien du programme des AAFCC s\u2019\u00e9levant en moyenne \u00e0 1,2 milliard de dollars par an entre 2025 et 2034."}},{"content":{"en":"Earlier this year the Government announced that the DFAA program would be updated effective April 1, 2025. The updated DFAA program is expected to increase federal assistance by 3 to 4 per cent relative to support projected under the previous structure. This incremental cost is reflected in our projection.","fr":"Plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e, le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 que le programme des AAFCC serait mis \u00e0 jour \u00e0 compter du 1er avril 2025. 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