[{"label":"Home","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en"},{"label":"News Releases","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse","section":{"id":4,"title_en":"Communications","title_fr":"Communications"}},{"label":"New immigration targets shrink Canada\u2019s population by 1.4 million, Says PBO","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/new-immigration-targets-shrink-canadas-population-by-14-million-says-pbo-les-nouveaux-objectifs-en-matiere-dimmigration-reduisent-la-population-du-canada-de-14-million-selon-le-dpb","section":{"id":4,"title_en":"Communications","title_fr":"Communications"}}]
New immigration targets shrink Canada’s population by 1.4 million, Says PBO
Ottawa (Ontario), January 23, 2025
The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) today published an independent report on the economic impact of the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan (ILP), which the government released on October 24, 2024.
The ILP sets out admission targets for permanent residents and, for the first time, targets for international students and temporary foreign workers admitted as temporary residents.
These new targets will result in a 3.2% reduction in Canada’s projected population, which amounts to 1.4 million fewer residents by the end of 2027 compared with the status quo. The reduction in international migration stemming from the 2025–2027 ILP will result in a slightly older overall population.
“The government’s new immigration targets are forecast to have a negative impact of 1.7% on real GDP by 2027,” explained Yves Giroux, Parliamentary Budget Officer. “However, because of the sizeable demographic impact, per capita GDP is expected to rise by 1.4% over the same period.”
The PBO estimates the new immigration targets will reduce nominal GDP—the broadest measure of the government tax base—by an average of $37 billion over the next three years.
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However, real GDP per capita would be 1.4 per cent higher by 2027.","fr":"Les changements d\u00e9coulant du Plan des niveaux d\u2019immigration (PNI) 2025-2027 entra\u00eeneraient une r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la baisse du Produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el qui atteindrait 1,7 % en 2027. En revanche, la hausse du PIB r\u00e9el par habitant atteindrait 1,4 % en 2027."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates that the new immigration targets would reduce nominal GDP\u2014the broadest measure of the government\u2019s tax base\u2014by 37 billion on average over the next three years.","fr":"Le DPB estime que les nouvelles cibles d\u2019immigration entra\u00eeneraient une baisse du PIB nominal \u2013 l\u2019indicateur le plus large de l\u2019assiette fiscale du gouvernement \u2013 de l\u2019ordre de 37 milliards de dollars en moyenne sur les trois prochaines ann\u00e9es."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-01-23T13:57:10.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-028-S--impact-assessment-2025-2027-immigration-level-plan--evaluation-incidence-plan-niveaux-immigration-2025-2027","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-028-S--impact-assessment-2025-2027-immigration-level-plan--evaluation-incidence-plan-niveaux-immigration-2025-2027","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-028-S--impact-assessment-2025-2027-immigration-level-plan--evaluation-incidence-plan-niveaux-immigration-2025-2027"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-028-S--impact-assessment-2025-2027-immigration-level-plan--evaluation-incidence-plan-niveaux-immigration-2025-2027","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-028-S--impact-assessment-2025-2027-immigration-level-plan--evaluation-incidence-plan-niveaux-immigration-2025-2027"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/697b8f42ff90f02f0e03097a22e700be21eb254e0cd433286efb98e2a0c9d3f9"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/3ddbd85a77ba56f4c9b27f783272e00b8a043edfe4522b2476808f2302e90044"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2313e420ba8551b36825f7880a697c6fdc19e6090cf0f80ce57440c60f76dbea","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ca88bfa4e8184a04e660a1ccc30af1c735f9f3237835af2724945df821943950","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e5ad6ec314fce5d9b07d44067c52765424c85b190b6953b3828ab656a5c4f7fa","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6ef17a0272a372e8f501dcc369b76ad1f5c200d3c305bcba810b6a20d70bd2c4","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1ea44efdc2eafa093e28974352588ed96830d41db4a78187075c22753fbc5826","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/12de983aad9529f9f96092f4b4d2cb1dc2ec688d4a63f106be0b76f74c3d501b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5d46c4cee469b55b68813c9d227af74fab8463b27b9faee7d29074906a8cca74","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/77eb5faaa817bd18a49c1a411c354f05cb27bb97a15f7be82a97f405b96874a8"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4f841b495a1212068495b0aaf494e9ff6f5f38fb0989ab86a2927e97ef598806","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/01a4689bb2cee3151c7407266fc07df831dc64c3d0017e9ee91391b8bbc9f613","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/66684105f67f2d07e2c7594af528b502f11793cd89cc09d984ec12cfdaeb9827","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7dc79e593046bc4f3c0852d36b81f8727f91fb0b85b131a171f010b6386e6095","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6362fa675215439c43183940699257d2a395fe54b4b87707fadd934fdad846d9","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/17286e4a146acf1fcf9cf70ed53e01faaa8bfa1c923627e480686b7ec249e209","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/187b86a62d0460929d47ab7b1e5eba439fd2b79aac99bc422ed606cc20479c48","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2ce264698bd6add3d94b40c8a4dac8409cf0288f40fdef5ba57bbd4fa9db17d5"}}},"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425028S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline and Kho, Albert},\n title={Impact assessment of 2025-2027 Immigration Level Plan},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425028S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline and Kho, Albert},\n title={\\\u0027{E}valuation de l\u2019incidence du Plan des niveaux d\u2019immigration 2025-2027},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}
