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PBO pegs total cost of federal government’s Volkswagen plant deal at $16.3 billion

Ottawa (Ontario), June 14, 2023

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) today released his analysis of the Government of Canada’s electric vehicle battery manufacturing facility agreement with Volkswagen.

The PBO’s latest report provides an estimate of total cost of the funding support to Volkswagen, which was recently announced by the government.

“Based on our analysis, the federal government’s financial commitment to Volkswagen will total around $16.3 billion over the period of the agreement,” says PBO Yves Giroux.

The PBO’s total cost estimate includes $12.8 billion in production support, a $0.7 billion contribution through the Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF) for the construction of the plant, and an estimated $2.8 billion in tax adjustments, that are needed to achieve an after-tax equivalency to support offered under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as per the Government’s stated intention.

The additional $0.5 billion in direct support to Volkswagen announced by the Government of Ontario will be funded by the province and is not included in the PBO’s federal cost estimate.

The PBO’s report also examines the economic and budgetary impacts of the Volkswagen plant’s construction.

“The economic benefits of building the new facility are marginal,” adds Mr. Giroux. “We estimate the plant will increase real GDP in Canada by 0.01 per cent above its baseline projection by 2027 and will add around 1,400 jobs by the same time.”

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response to interest from several Members of Parliament, this report provides a static cost estimate of the entirety of the Government of Canada\u2019s funding support for Volkswagen\u2019s electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant, as well as the economic and budgetary impacts of the plant\u2019s construction.","abstract_fr":"Afin de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat exprim\u00e9 par plusieurs d\u00e9put\u00e9s, le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une estimation statique des co\u00fbts de l\u2019ensemble du soutien financier apport\u00e9 par le gouvernement du Canada \u00e0 l\u2019usine de Volkswagen d\u00e9di\u00e9e \u00e0 la fabrication de batteries de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, ainsi que des r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires de cette construction.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The PBO estimates that the government will need to pay Volkswagen up to $16.3 billion over the period of the agreement.","fr":"Le DPB estime que le gouvernement devra verser \u00e0 Volkswagen jusqu\u0027\u00e0 16,3 milliards de dollars pendant la p\u00e9riode vis\u00e9e par l\u2019accord."}},{"content":{"en":"This report only examines the economic impact of the new facility\u2019s construction, which is marginal. We estimate that construction of the plant would increase real GDP by 0.01 per cent above its baseline projection by the end of 2027 and increase the level of employment by 1,400 jobs by that same time.","fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport n\u2019examine que les retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques de la construction de cette usine. Ces retomb\u00e9es sont marginales. Nous estimons que la construction de l\u2019usine augmenterait le PIB r\u00e9el de 0,01 % par rapport \u00e0 la projection de base d\u2019ici la fin de 2027 de m\u00eame que le niveau d\u2019emploi, avec 1 400 nouveaux postes d\u2019ici la m\u00eame \u00e9ch\u00e9ance."}},{"content":{"en":"The net budgetary impact of the plant\u2019s construction is expected to be approximately equal to the government\u2019s $0.7 billion contribution.","fr":"L\u2019incidence budg\u00e9taire nette de la construction de l\u2019usine devrait \u00eatre approximativement \u00e9gale \u00e0 la contribution du gouvernement (0,7 milliard de dollars)."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO continues to examine the government\u2019s support and will undertake an economic and fiscal analysis of the production support over the coming months.","fr":"Le DPB continue d\u2019examiner le soutien du gouvernement et entreprendra une analyse \u00e9conomique et financi\u00e8re du soutien \u00e0 la production au cours des prochains mois."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324008S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Fiscal Analysis of Canada\u2019s Support for Volkswagen\u2019s Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing Plant},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324008S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Analyse financi\\`{e}re du soutien du Canada \\`{a} la construction de l\u2019usine de fabrication de batteries pour v\\\u0027{e}hicules \\\u0027{e}lectriques de Volkswagen},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}