PBO Releases Review of Budget 2025

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{"id":"RP-2526-017-S","is_published":"2025-11-14T13:57:10.000000Z","release_date":"2025-11-14T14:00:00.000000Z","last_revised_date":null,"title_en":"Budget 2025: Issues for Parliamentarians","title_fr":"Budget de 2025 : enjeux pour les parlementaires","internal_id":"RP-2526-017-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2025.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fait ressortir les enjeux du budget de 2025 afin d\u2019aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Under Budget 2025 the deficit is projected to average $64.3 billion annually over 2025-26 to 2029-30\u2014more than double that projected in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement (FES). This deterioration primarily reflects new \u201cday-to-day\u201d operating measures and increased provisions for liabilities.","fr":"Le d\u00e9ficit projet\u00e9 dans le budget de 2025 devrait s\u2019\u00e9lever \u00e0 64,3 milliards de dollars par an, en moyenne, entre 2025-2026 et 2029-2030, soit plus du double de ce qui \u00e9tait pr\u00e9vu dans l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2024 (EEA). Cette d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration tient principalement aux nouvelles mesures de d\u00e9penses de fonctionnement courantes ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019augmentation des provisions pour passifs."}},{"content":{"en":"Absent measures since the 2024 FES and measures announced in Budget 2025, the day-to-day operating balance would be in a surplus position over 2026-27 to 2029-30. New operating measures since the 2024 FES and in Budget 2025 shift the day-to-day operating balance from a surplus to a deficit position in 2026-27 and 2027-28.","fr":"En l\u2019absence de mesures adopt\u00e9es depuis l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2024 et de mesures annonc\u00e9es dans le budget de 2025, le solde de fonctionnement courant serait exc\u00e9dentaire de 2026-2027 \u00e0 2029-2030. Les nouvelles mesures op\u00e9rationnelles prises depuis l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2024 et dans le budget de 2025 font passer le solde de fonctionnement courant d\u2019une position exc\u00e9dentaire \u00e0 une position d\u00e9ficitaire en 2026-2027 et 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO maintains its view that the Government\u2019s definition of capital investments is overly expansive. Based on PBO\u2019s definition, capital investments would total $217.3 billion over 2024-25 to 2029-30\u2014approximately 30 per cent ($94 billion) lower compared to Budget 2025. Moreover, based on PBO\u2019s definition, the day-to-day operating balance after new measures would remain in a deficit position.","fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) maintient que la d\u00e9finition que donne le gouvernement aux investissements en capital est trop large. Selon la d\u00e9finition du DPB, les investissements en capital totaliseraient 217,3 milliards de dollars entre 2024-2025 et 2029-2030, soit environ 30 % (ou 94 milliards de dollars) de moins que ce qui est indiqu\u00e9 dans le budget de 2025. En outre, selon la d\u00e9finition du DPB, le solde de fonctionnement courant apr\u00e8s les nouvelles mesures resterait d\u00e9ficitaire."}},{"content":{"en":"Given the subjectivity involved in defining federal capital investments and their role in guiding fiscal policy decisions and in assessing fiscal performance, the PBO recommends that the Government establish an independent expert body to determine which federal spending categories and measures qualify as capital investment under an expanded definition beyond the Public Accounts of Canada.","fr":"\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 le caract\u00e8re subjectif de la d\u00e9finition des investissements en capital f\u00e9d\u00e9raux et du r\u00f4le que cela exerce dans l\u2019orientation des d\u00e9cisions de politique budg\u00e9taire et l\u2019\u00e9valuation de la performance financi\u00e8re, le DPB recommande que le gouvernement mette sur pied un organe d\u2019experts ind\u00e9pendant charg\u00e9 de d\u00e9terminer quelles cat\u00e9gories et mesures de d\u00e9penses f\u00e9d\u00e9rales peuvent \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme des investissements en capital selon une d\u00e9finition \u00e9largie allant au-del\u00e0 de celle qui figure dans les Comptes publics du Canada."}},{"content":{"en":"Finance Canada projects the deficit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio to increase to 2.5 per cent in 2025-26, before declining over the medium term to reach 1.5 per cent in 2029-30. Based on PBO stress testing, there is a 7.5 per cent chance that the deficit-to-GDP ratio will decline in every year over 2026-27 to 2029-30. This suggests it is unlikely that the Government\u2019s declining deficit-to-GDP fiscal anchor will be respected.","fr":"Le minist\u00e8re des Finances du Canada pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du d\u00e9ficit au produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) augmentera pour atteindre 2,5 % en 2025 2026, avant de diminuer \u00e0 moyen terme pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 1,5 % en 2029-2030. D\u2019apr\u00e8s les tests de r\u00e9sistance faits par le DPB, il y a 7,5 % de chances que le ratio du d\u00e9ficit au PIB diminue chaque ann\u00e9e entre 2026-2027 et 2029-2030. Il est donc peu probable que l\u2019ancrage budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement, qui consiste \u00e0 r\u00e9duire le d\u00e9ficit par rapport au PIB, puisse \u00eatre respect\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"Based on the long-term baseline projection in Budget 2025, there is limited fiscal room for the Government to reduce revenues or increase program spending while ensuring the federal debt-to-GDP ratio in 2055-56 is at or below its initial (2024-25) level. This contrasts with fiscal policy settings over the last 3 years that would have provided more fiscal room to address future challenges and risks.","fr":"Si l\u2019on se fie \u00e0 la projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 long terme du budget de 2025, le gouvernement dispose d\u2019une marge de man\u0153uvre limit\u00e9e pour r\u00e9duire les recettes ou augmenter les d\u00e9penses de programme tout en veillant \u00e0 ce que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB en 2055-2056 soit \u00e9gal ou inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau initial (2024-2025). Cela contraste avec les orientations de la politique budg\u00e9taire des trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, qui auraient laiss\u00e9 une plus grande marge de man\u0153uvre budg\u00e9taire pour faire face aux difficult\u00e9s et risques \u00e0 venir."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-11-14T15:33:44.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2526-017-S--budget-2025-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2025-enjeux-parlementaires","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-017-S--budget-2025-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2025-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-017-S--budget-2025-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2025-enjeux-parlementaires"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-017-S--budget-2025-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2025-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-017-S--budget-2025-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2025-enjeux-parlementaires"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/190ba7d3612031a7e15f5b45833a685e0e579add5a40fc0d2730ef043aeea0b1"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/11797a4a5a96402a6dff5e71d18bb4fc678ec811231050e8fc72d915c5d35c8d"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e08841cae2811e27880d501dce5832241dc4fe34dc19f4afe3decec187de3bf5","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1a20f4ab18092d07b4521a444ab210b87423419a8fe5fdbc3a14e121267a4a3f","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9d2b9079f7b09aaaceba9f80da40a84923056a85392109f12449c60bdb02ba98","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c4a10d55deeadda8a99a189b7947730ed35bd681c48a52301c320b10f3a8e30","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6781bb9a6bf8ff4359e2fcae3aff84088305ea7682058d4408ed39c5bf9a3c38","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/91134b534e7e39cd35883cb453f9ea962b5b6bb29b198a87cee5f17a7fb2a3d1","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/110c41a7c0202fe3d30f209b87f2d63279a20d230d76ec962fff452a57069779","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d039c68fb3012dbb63f372e1d023235ec052381f8ec3a67679bb5fd06d862acf"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/616c4c41bd7c0a774429ff29fc2121bf654394e95b5ed04065ae7acbbae8980d","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3bd2d88773ac214b3d3d1716ea55dd33afb784f10a4e7009ac41d658200b74a2","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/40a2f134b31f66d5ec92ed4d3d0d9e8ab5c3d4076f1ad6c5f5e027c649a50b4a","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a93250fe7d1a3a4b2e82b8581064d70ae1be9636bfe1cd9ce10cf17b915fa9ae","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/84163b7b9556102c6374415d47ecab059783139209f554369c0152d2194bfab8","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eead0848d471975a9a7bd9ce84285b122ee77dbef4134a1316fccf774844ab37","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d494a395628f808e08fe08e526dbe2abb8f21fab9fdb2cb30b8a2da237bfacc9","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bfd4d73fe10ff2ecff87305b7fb0187ef19bf1f4a6373dd1908c6909a49433bd"}}},"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2526017S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Kho, Albert and Penney, Christopher E. and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Budget 2025: Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2526017S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Kho, Albert and Penney, Christopher E. and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Budget de 2025 : enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}