PBO Releases Review of Budget 2025
Ottawa (Ontario), November 14, 2025
The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) has published an independent assessment of Budget 2025. The report highlights financial pressures and concerns about transparency.
According to the PBO, the Government has limited room to cut taxes or increase spending if it wants to keep the federal debt-to-GDP ratio in 2055–56 at or below its current level.
“Budget 2025 projects the debt-to-GDP ratio will stay mostly stable over the next 30 years,” said Jason Jacques, Interim PBO. “This is different from the last three years, when fiscal policy provided more flexibility to deal with future risks.”
Budget 2025 also sets out new fiscal anchors - to balance the operating budget and make sure the deficit-to-GDP ratio declines over time.
“Our analysis shows there is only a 7.5% chance the deficit-to-GDP ratio will fall every year from 2026–27 to 2029–30,” Jacques said. “This means the Government’s new anchor is unlikely to hold.”
The PBO also says the Government’s definition of capital investment is too broad. Using the PBO’s definition based on international practice, capital investments would total $217 billion from 2024–25 to 2029–30—about $94 billion less than Budget 2025 estimates.
“To improve transparency, an independent expert group should decide what counts as capital investment under the expanded definition,” Jacques added.