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PBO reports on Canada’s 2030 emissions gap
Ottawa (Ontario), November 26, 2025
The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) has released a report that estimates Canada’s 2030 emissions gap in response to interest from parliamentarians. The report compares Canada’s projected greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 with the target set under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act.
“Under our updated projection, we estimate that Canada’s 2030 emissions gap could range from 49 to 102 megatonnes,” said Jason Jacques, Interim PBO. “This would leave Canada’s emissions in 2030 at 31.5% and 33.5% below 2005 levels, short of the 40 45% legislated target.”
PBO’s analysis uses the most recent data and projections from Environment and Climate Change Canada. It incorporates federal policy revisions announced earlier this year including the removal of the consumer carbon price, the delay to the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, and reconsideration of the oil and gas emissions cap.
The report notes that assessing cumulative emissions between 2025 and 2030 provides broader perspective on Canada’s short-term progress toward its climate goals.
“While the legislated target for 2030 focuses on a single year, it is also important to consider performance over time,” added Jacques. “Between 2025 and 2030, cumulative emissions could exceed the Government’s Pathway to 2030 by 221 to 289 megatonnes.”
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{"id":"RP-2526-021-S","is_published":"2025-11-26T13:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2025-11-26T14:00:00.000000Z","last_revised_date":null,"title_en":"Estimating Canada\u2019s 2030 Emissions Gap","title_fr":"Estimation de l\u2019\u00e9cart avec la cible d\u2019\u00e9missions du Canada pour 2030","internal_id":"RP-2526-021-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides estimates of the gap between Canada\u2019s projected greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 and the Government\u2019s legislated target under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act.","abstract_fr":"Le rapport pr\u00e9sente des estimations de l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre du Canada projet\u00e9es en 2030 et la cible du gouvernement pr\u00e9vue par la Loi canadienne sur la responsabilit\u00e9 en mati\u00e8re de carboneutralit\u00e9.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Under PBO\u2019s updated projection that accounts for federal policy revisions earlier this year, we estimate Canada\u2019s 2030 emissions gap could range from 49 megatonnes (Mt) to 102 Mt. That is, projected emissions in 2030 could be 49 Mt to 102 Mt above the legislated target of 40-45 per cent below 2005 levels. This would leave Canada\u2019s emissions in 2030 at 33.5 per cent and 31.5 per cent, respectively, below 2005 levels.","fr":"Selon la projection mise \u00e0 jour du DPB qui tient compte des r\u00e9visions apport\u00e9es aux politiques f\u00e9d\u00e9rales plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e, nous estimons que l\u2019\u00e9cart avec la cible d\u2019\u00e9missions du Canada pour 2030 pourrait se situer entre 49 m\u00e9gatonnes (Mt) et 102 Mt. Autrement dit, les \u00e9missions projet\u00e9es pour 2030 pourraient \u00eatre de 49 Mt \u00e0 102 Mt sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 la cible pr\u00e9vue par la loi de 40 % \u00e0 45 % sous les niveaux de 2005. Ainsi, les \u00e9missions du Canada en 2030 se situeraient respectivement \u00e0 33,5 % et \u00e0 31,5 % sous les niveaux de 2005."}},{"content":{"en":"While the legislated 2030 target puts the focus on emissions in a milestone year, it is also informative to consider the shortfall in performance over time. Based on the Government\u2019s Pathway to 2030 (40 per cent below 2005 levels), our updated projections indicate that cumulative emissions over 2025 to 2030 could exceed Pathway levels by between 221 Mt (6.7 per cent) and 289 Mt (8.8 per cent).","fr":"La cible de 2030 pr\u00e9vue par la loi est ax\u00e9e sur les \u00e9missions dans une ann\u00e9e jalon; cependant, le d\u00e9ficit de performance au fil du temps m\u00e9rite aussi d\u2019\u00eatre pris en consid\u00e9ration. Selon la Trajectoire vers 2030 du gouvernement (40 % sous les niveaux de 2005), nos projections mises \u00e0 jour indiquent que les \u00e9missions cumulatives de 2025 \u00e0 2030 pourraient d\u00e9passer les niveaux de la trajectoire de 221 Mt (6,7 %) \u00e0 289 Mt (8,8 %)."}},{"content":{"en":"Given the construction of our updated projection, PBO estimates of Canada\u2019s 2030 emissions gap should be seen as approximate. Our analysis does not attempt to account for potential interactions between the policy revisions, nor does it consider any policy revisions made by provincial and territorial governments earlier this year. That said, our estimate of the 2030 emissions gap is, on balance, lower than recent external estimates.","fr":"Compte tenu de la fa\u00e7on dont notre projection mise \u00e0 jour a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9e, les estimations de l\u2019\u00e9cart avec la cible d\u2019\u00e9missions du Canada pour 2030 du DPB doivent \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme approximatives. Notre analyse ne tient pas compte des interactions possibles entre les r\u00e9visions apport\u00e9es aux politiques, ni des r\u00e9visions apport\u00e9es \u00e0 la politique par les gouvernements provinciaux et territoriaux plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e. Cela dit, notre estimation de l\u2019\u00e9cart avec la cible d\u2019\u00e9missions pour 2030 est, dans l\u2019ensemble, inf\u00e9rieure aux estimations externes r\u00e9centes."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-11-26T13:57:08.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2526-021-S--estimating-canada-2030-emissions-gap--estimation-ecart-cible-emissions-canada-2030","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-021-S--estimating-canada-2030-emissions-gap--estimation-ecart-cible-emissions-canada-2030","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-021-S--estimating-canada-2030-emissions-gap--estimation-ecart-cible-emissions-canada-2030"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-021-S--estimating-canada-2030-emissions-gap--estimation-ecart-cible-emissions-canada-2030","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-021-S--estimating-canada-2030-emissions-gap--estimation-ecart-cible-emissions-canada-2030"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/047b12eceac2b265879ac61f9adf9ec965944db6ef53ddc16207abc7f32da5c0"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/646732bb57ea4f2c83344021339dfa7438e76681d9d4be8266e40277a9e9b515"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f7fbe252d00c055df78a88b8dad1fc6ded6f0d0baf171ce1c6e1a3147391cb27","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f0ec1a99dcd7f562ce535433a6255deefe146f5575fc695b9614e184786deb4c","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/aef60cff868dbba88aca15e01367ff14266d8f00dfdbc860b838f43a55403aea","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/94aef3588e61454a2e9f993dd120bb729537f0052f14aba7a403054727e6ab9c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e57634cf0ef3b3f7d0edc6930e11ce1a2f1f63455455793fa00d27ebeb6ab83c","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c7ae24263d1dee6a711c563289d6b52381cf0c563977d4708a5606e07dd347b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/26c29ed3fe9462a884accb0604b34024feddc337fb078d2225bc0664e163fa07","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/86e81135cfa417729588e6d475874cf1f1150bddfb5ff86c37fc00c3d9cfa850"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cfb81ebffda0b351da1d49a83b87bfbe298277ef36ea6b2fdc6c90b21326459f","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/95c6fb2b44a0a5797e906dcc70bf6b9cf8894cca872e2770aaa4ec63340dc8bb","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c365f8443edc4e1f30702da38639a2e605f53c1ee38a63e09843dd23d4cb8bfa","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/494411babe03c359acbda7329f0435390e2b43ff284096f5af49eb6ef3761a65","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e1cf393b900bade8548b9af57b2fb6b9cffa49e41691c243aae7928eb5265e3e","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bc2933f9746710bc6b680a4cb1b0b552a6baa8ce15090cc7a9dc645e5883559d","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/35786bcde6cc372d719cb3604f9694cda8eeeb65066fe9966645e8e65d81eb35","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9f2db00cb00a6a05c3492536d13aa23c6e9ca27978b504ed0db5d2412c532e8a"}}},"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2526021S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine},\n title={Estimating Canada\u2019s 2030 Emissions Gap},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2526021S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine},\n title={Estimation de l\u2019\\\u0027{e}cart avec la cible d\u2019\\\u0027{e}missions du Canada pour 2030},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}
