Le DPB publie ses dernières Perspectives économiques et financières

-30-

{"id":"RP-2526-012-S","is_published":"2025-09-25T12:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2025-09-25T13:00:00.000000Z","last_revised_date":null,"title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 September 2025","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Septembre 2025","internal_id":"RP-2526-012-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO has revised down its economic outlook. Reflecting increased trade uncertainty and the implementation of tariffs, real GDP growth is projected to average 1.2 per cent annually over 2025 and 2026. While economic growth is projected to rebound to 1.8 per cent in 2027, structurally weaker trade conditions are expected to lower the level of real GDP by 0.5 per cent by 2030.","fr":"Le DPB a revu \u00e0 la baisse ses perspectives \u00e9conomiques. Compte tenu de l\u2019incertitude croissante entourant les \u00e9changes commerciaux et de l\u2019application des droits de douane, la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el devrait s\u2019\u00e9tablir en moyenne \u00e0 1,2 % par an en 2025 et en 2026. M\u00eame si la croissance \u00e9conomique devrait rebondir pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 1,8 % en 2027, la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration structurelle des conditions commerciales devrait faire baisser le niveau du PIB r\u00e9el de 0,5 % d\u2019ici 2030."}},{"content":{"en":"Nominal GDP\u2014the broadest measure of the Government\u2019s tax base\u2014is projected to be $12.9 billion lower annually, on average, over 2025 to 2029 primarily due to the lasting impact of tariffs and less favourable trading conditions with the United States.","fr":"Le PIB nominal, la mesure la plus \u00e9largie de l\u2019assiette fiscale de l\u2019\u00c9tat, devrait \u00eatre inf\u00e9rieur de 12,9 milliards de dollars par an, en moyenne, sur la p\u00e9riode 2025-2029, principalement en raison de l\u2019effet durable des droits de douane et des conditions commerciales moins favorables avec les \u00c9tats-Unis."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO\u2019s status quo fiscal outlook includes new measures announced since the 2024 Fall Economic Statement amounting to $115.1 billion in (net) new spending over 2024-25 to 2029-30.","fr":"Les perspectives financi\u00e8res du statu quo du DPB incluent les nouvelles mesures annonc\u00e9es depuis l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2024, qui s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vent \u00e0 115,1 milliards de dollars en nouvelles d\u00e9penses (nettes) sur la p\u00e9riode s\u2019\u00e9chelonnant de 2024-2025 \u00e0 2029-2030."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to increase sharply from $51.7 billion (1.7 per cent of GDP) in 2024-25 to $68.5 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP) in 2025-26 reflecting weaker economic growth and additional measures impacting both revenues and expenses.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit une forte augmentation du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire, qui passerait de 51,7 milliards de dollars (1,7 % du PIB) en 2024-2025 \u00e0 68,5 milliards de dollars (2,2 % du PIB) en 2025-2026, en raison d\u2019une croissance \u00e9conomique plus faible et de mesures suppl\u00e9mentaires affectant \u00e0 la fois les recettes et les d\u00e9penses."}},{"content":{"en":"Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to decline slightly but remain close to $60 billion through the medium term as growth in revenues only slightly outpaces growth in expenses.","fr":"En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit introduite et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait descendre l\u00e9g\u00e8rement, mais restant proche de 60 milliards de dollars \u00e0 moyen terme, la croissance des recettes ne d\u00e9passant que l\u00e9g\u00e8rement celle des d\u00e9penses."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to persistent budgetary deficits of over 1 per cent of GDP, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase from 41.7 per cent in 2024-25, rising above 43 per cent over the medium term. Compared to our March outlook, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is 4.5 percentage points higher in 2029-30 and is no longer projected to be on a declining path over the medium term.","fr":"En raison de d\u00e9ficits budg\u00e9taires persistants de plus de 1 % du PIB, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB, estim\u00e9 \u00e0 41,7 % en 2024-2025, devrait s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 plus de 43 % \u00e0 moyen terme. Par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives de mars, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB est sup\u00e9rieur de 4,5 points de pourcentage en 2029-2030 et ne devrait plus \u00eatre sur une trajectoire descendante \u00e0 moyen terme."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-09-25T12:57:04.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/e40b5816b0130180b69a3e321f211634180a563c54de15cdafa64434e2b43ad3"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b00a252bd26135a3adb49dde6d0c4dee626c582d5355d6416af744af6ef46e0"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6769297bca43963ba26c19d02ef18a4e5e84480c566edd64a8b0be587418d8f6","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/13c478ff6b7eee5b933e4b4df07731fbde51f36b231214d0b2cb80ae8a4e5761","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7d3fea48ab69dde3586d8bee8ae19495295a590534e54154098f37ca7f9b889a","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7be048d7baddbc1055bef6dcfd20411259b01b56cc0aaf463f10a22e66e95f95","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/034ae446f8a156cb2445030e0b23cbc5da96fc931686b39b4656255635660c8c","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3fc2d916d181961ac3713f7e7ca8b346b1222714fb8d849345b8b63b073180de","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0b992df7591c3a00e326df1c9c5497503e547448a0ba3d9217d9d3d1b0dea8a0","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b2af8e968b70363c03fcab835c78d9618851f66a249b7d6d762ae4014d689a93"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/42a8e45b2c0aefcc1b2194c9c5486f55a0c1ad871fef1b5acde5eb81d820e24c","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d4dc1ce5c02c420379d9671fab3c30b97538e0f5a1a4a27a10038c38e3bbc44a","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/24384117472e4a3343a378f7132916e5843b17f3044e19a86cd2e8790345160b","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/155d3862f422333a91eb89166366a9cb30ebfca8bef4157a7c442f4bb9c47dbc","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5ddf69d3b33d60792eb16ae3732a9089a9608f996727c041abf51f2bed27b6b6","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d265bb42ff8713762cc0fb79af1e3f700ec72e248efe0b0f987af4d3c3d52fce","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb814b3d54b7f68e6c4992ffbd5ff80f46ee75b352cf184d3b87c3207df7f8e4","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/38f619531b1f732147eeaa17e979340a701a029e961864546096685eb8a8bddd"}}},"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2526012S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - September 2025},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2526012S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Septembre 2025},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}