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The Canada Disability Benefit: Model and Scenarios

Published on November 16, 2023 PDF(opens a new window)

This report presents the PBO’s microsimulation model to estimate the cost of the Canada Disability Benefit. The model can accommodate many different design elements of the announced benefit. In addition, the report explores the cost of three hypothetical implementations of the Canada Disability Benefit.

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Communications

Quote

  • Due to the lack of basic information in legislation, most parameters are still unknown, leading to cost estimates that vary widely. Across the three scenarios we examined, the cost of the CDB program could total between $2.1 billion and $20.1 billion in the first full fiscal year of implementation. Leaving virtually all parameters of such an important program to be determined solely by Cabinet, rather than Parliament, is surprising.

Yves Giroux
Parliamentary Budget Officer

News Release

{"id":57,"created_at":"2023-11-16T08:00:32-05:00","updated_at":"2023-11-16T08:57:06-05:00","slug":"costing-of-canada-disability-benefit-under-three-pbo-scenarios-letablissement-du-cout-de-la-prestation-canadienne-pour-les-personnes-handicapees-selon-trois-scenarios-du-dpb","title_en":"Costing of Canada Disability Benefit Under Three PBO Scenarios","title_fr":"L\u2019\u00e9tablissement du co\u00fbt de la prestation canadienne pour les personnes handicap\u00e9es selon trois sc\u00e9narios du DPB","body_en":"Today, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) published a report that presents three hypothetical scenarios to estimate the cost of the Canada Disability Benefit (CDB), enacted as part of Bill C-22. \n\nThe legislation, now called the Canada Disability Benefit Act, will come into force on a day set by order within one year of its receiving Royal Assent (June 22, 2023). For now, most of the design elements of the benefit remain undetermined. Crucial choices regarding eligibility criteria, the benefit amount and delivery method that will dictate the program\u2019s eventual cost are yet to be determined through regulations, rather than legislation. \n\nThe report Canada Disability Benefit: Model and Scenarios also summarizes the methodology the PBO used to develop a micro-simulation model that can adjust for the government\u2019s choices, which will influence the program\u2019s cost and the number of beneficiaries.\n\nAlongside the report, the PBO has released a new interactive tool to inform parliamentarians of the potential magnitude of the cost of implementing the CDB.\n\n\u201cDue to the lack of basic information in legislation, most parameters are still unknown, leading to cost estimates that vary widely. Across the three scenarios we examined, the cost of the CDB program could total between $2.1 billion and $20.1 billion in the first full fiscal year of implementation,\u201d explained Yves Giroux, Parliamentary Budget Officer. \u201cLeaving virtually all parameters of such an important program to be determined solely by Cabinet, rather than Parliament, is surprising.\u201d\n\nThe tool is available on our website.","body_fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) a publi\u00e9 aujourd\u2019hui un rapport qui pr\u00e9sente trois sc\u00e9narios hypoth\u00e9tiques \u00e9labor\u00e9s afin d\u2019estimer le co\u00fbt de la Prestation canadienne pour les personnes handicap\u00e9es (PCPH), adopt\u00e9e dans le cadre du projet de loi C-22. \n\nLa Loi sur la prestation canadienne pour les personnes handicap\u00e9es entrera en vigueur \u00e0 la date fix\u00e9e par d\u00e9cret dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e suivant la date de la sanction royale du projet de loi C-22 (le 22 juin 2023). Pour l\u2019instant la plupart des \u00e9l\u00e9ments de conception de la prestation restent \u00e0 d\u00e9terminer. Les d\u00e9cisions fondamentales concernant les crit\u00e8res d\u2019admissibilit\u00e9, le montant de la prestation et le mode de versement, joueront un r\u00f4le essentiel dans la d\u00e9termination du co\u00fbt du programme mais ne seront d\u00e9termin\u00e9s que par d\u00e9cret. \n\nLe rapport \u00ab Prestation d\u0027invalidit\u00e9 du Canada : Mod\u00e8le et sc\u00e9narios \u00bb, r\u00e9sume aussi la m\u00e9thodologie utilis\u00e9e par le DPB pour d\u00e9velopper un mod\u00e8le de micro-simulation qui peut s\u2019ajuster en fonction des choix du gouvernement, qui affecteront grandement le co\u00fbt du programme et le nombre de personnes qui pourraient en b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier. \n\nCe rapport s\u2019accompagne \u00e9galement d\u2019un nouvel outil interactif pour informer les parlementaires de l\u2019ampleur possible du co\u00fbt de l\u2019\u00e9tablissement de la PCPH. \n\n\u00ab En raison de l\u2019absence des renseignements de base dans la loi, la plupart des param\u00e8tres sont encore inconnus, ce qui conduit \u00e0 des estimations de co\u00fbts qui varient consid\u00e9rablement. Dans les trois sc\u00e9narios que nous avons examin\u00e9s, le co\u00fbt du programme PCPH pourrait \u00eatre entre 2,1 et 20,1 milliards de dollars au cours du premier exercice financier complet de mise en \u0153uvre \u00bb, a expliqu\u00e9 Monsieur Yves Giroux, directeur parlementaire du budget. \u00ab Il est \u00e9tonnant que la quasi-totalit\u00e9 des param\u00e8tres d\u2019un programme aussi important soient laiss\u00e9s \u00e0 la discr\u00e9tion du Cabinet plut\u00f4t que d\u00e9termin\u00e9s par le Parlement \u00bb. \n\nVous trouverez l\u2019outil sur notre site Web.","release_date":"2023-11-16T09:00:00-05:00","is_published":"2023-11-16T08:57:06-05:00","internal_id":"COM-2324-057","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/costing-of-canada-disability-benefit-under-three-pbo-scenarios-letablissement-du-cout-de-la-prestation-canadienne-pour-les-personnes-handicapees-selon-trois-scenarios-du-dpb"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/costing-of-canada-disability-benefit-under-three-pbo-scenarios-letablissement-du-cout-de-la-prestation-canadienne-pour-les-personnes-handicapees-selon-trois-scenarios-du-dpb"}},"pivot":{"publication_id":770,"news_release_id":57}}
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