Household Formation and the Housing Stock

Communications

Quote

• Combined with our baseline outlook for completions, closing Canada’s housing gap would result in 3.1 million net housing units completed by 2030, which translates into 436,000 units completed annually, on average, over 2024 to 2030. This pace of housing completion would represent an increase of 80 per cent above the record level of completions in 2023, sustained for 7 years.

News Release

{"id":62,"created_at":"2024-04-10T14:03:09-04:00","updated_at":"2024-04-11T08:57:03-04:00","slug":"13-million-more-housing-units-will-be-required-to-close-canadas-housing-gap-by-2030-according-to-the-pbo-selon-le-dpb-13-million-de-logements-de-plus-seront-necessaires-si-lon-veut-combler-les-lacunes-en-matiere-de-logements-au-canada-dici-2030","title_en":"1.3 million more housing units will be required to close Canada\u2019s housing gap by 2030, according to the PBO","title_fr":"Selon le DPB, 1,3 million de logements de plus seront n\u00e9cessaires si l\u2019on veut combler les lacunes en mati\u00e8re de logements au Canada d\u2019ici 2030","body_en":"The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) has released a new report on household formation and the housing stock in Canada. The report also provides an estimate of the housing gap at the national level based on the total vacancy rate. The report does not incorporate recently announced measures from the upcoming Budget 2024.\n\nPBO demographic demand-based estimates suggest that a record 460,000 (net) new households were formed in 2023\u2014well in excess of record net housing completions of 242,000 units. Based on PBO estimates, the unmatched increase in household formation pushed the total vacancy rate in Canada to a record low of 5.1 per cent in 2023, putting further upward pressure on house prices and rents.\n\nPBO estimates that suppressed household formation in Canada amounted to 631,000 households in 2021. That is, the number of households in 2021 in Canada would have been 631,000 (4.1 per cent) higher if attainable housing options had existed.\n\nThe report also estimates the housing gap in Canada\u2014the additional units that would be required to return the vacancy rate to its long-term historical average\u2014accounting for suppressed household formation. PBO estimates that in addition to its baseline outlook, 1.3 million housing units would need to be completed by 2030 to eliminate the housing gap in Canada.\n\n\u201cCombined with our baseline outlook for completions, closing Canada\u2019s housing gap would result in 3.1 million net housing units completed by 2030, which translates into 436,000 units completed annually, on average, over 2024 to 2030. This pace of housing completion would represent an increase of 80 per cent above the record level of completions in 2023, sustained for 7 years,\u201d says Yves Giroux, PBO. \n\nHowever, this would not likely be sufficient to fully address affordability concerns across all provinces and territories. Other factors, such as household income, interest rates and regional disparities would also need to be considered.\n\nCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) estimated a housing supply gap of 3.5 million units on top of 1.7 million baseline net completions. Combining baseline projections and housing gap estimates, CMHC analysis indicates that 5.1 million units will be needed over 2023 to 2030\u2014well above PBO\u2019s estimate of estimate of 3.1 million units over 2024 to 2030.","body_fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) a publi\u00e9 un nouveau rapport sur la formation de m\u00e9nages et le stock de logements au Canada. Dans le rapport, il pr\u00e9sente \u00e9galement une estimation de l\u2019\u00e9cart en mati\u00e8re de logements au niveau national, fond\u00e9e sur le taux de logements vacants au total. Il n\u2019inclut pas les mesures r\u00e9cemment annonc\u00e9es et pr\u00e9vues dans le Budget 2024.\n\nSelon les estimations d\u00e9mographiques du DPB, ax\u00e9es sur la demande, un nombre record (net) de 460\u2009000 nouveaux m\u00e9nages se sont form\u00e9s en 2023, ce qui exc\u00e8de largement le nombre record net de 242\u2009000 logements achev\u00e9s. Toujours d\u2019apr\u00e8s les estimations du DPB, l\u2019augmentation in\u00e9gal\u00e9e de la formation de m\u00e9nages a fait passer le taux d\u2019inoccupation total au Canada \u00e0 un plancher record de 5,1 % en 2023, ce qui a ajout\u00e9 une pression accrue sur les prix des maisons et des loyers.\n\nLe DPB estime que la non-formation de m\u00e9nages au Canada s\u2019\u00e9levait \u00e0 631\u2009000 en 2021. En d\u2019autres termes, le nombre de m\u00e9nages en 2021 au Canada aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 de 631\u2009000 (4,1 %) plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 si des options de logement accessible avaient exist\u00e9.\n\nCe m\u00eame rapport estime \u00e9galement le manque de logements au Canada (les logements suppl\u00e9mentaires qu\u2019il faudrait construire pour ramener le taux d\u2019inoccupation \u00e0 la moyenne historique \u00e0 long terme) incluant la non-formation de m\u00e9nages. Le DPB estime que par rapport \u00e0 ses perspectives de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, il faudrait construire 1,3 million de logements additionnels d\u2019ici 2030 afin d\u2019\u00e9liminer l\u2019\u00e9cart de l\u2019offre de logement du Canada.\n\n\u00ab Combin\u00e9e \u00e0 nos perspectives de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour la cr\u00e9ation de nouveaux logements, combler le manque de logements au Canada n\u00e9cessiterait l\u2019ach\u00e8vement net de 3,1 millions d\u2019unit\u00e9s d\u2019habitation d\u2019ici 2030, ce qui \u00e9quivaut \u00e0 436\u2009000 unit\u00e9s par ann\u00e9e en moyenne de 2024 \u00e0 2030. Ce rythme repr\u00e9senterait une augmentation de 80 % au-dessus du niveau record d\u2019habitations achev\u00e9es en 2023, maintenue pendant 7 ans \u00bb, affirme Yves Giroux, DPB.\n\nToutefois, cela ne suffirait probablement pas \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre les probl\u00e8mes li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019abordabilit\u00e9 dans l\u2019ensemble des provinces et des territoires. D\u2019autres facteurs, tels que le revenu des m\u00e9nages, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et les disparit\u00e9s entre les diverses r\u00e9gions g\u00e9ographiques, devront \u00e9galement \u00eatre examin\u00e9s.\n\nLa Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 canadienne d\u2019hypoth\u00e8ques et de logement (SCHL) a estim\u00e9 le d\u00e9ficit de l\u2019offre de logement \u00e0 3,5 millions d\u2019unit\u00e9s d\u2019habitation, et c\u2019est sans compter les 1,7 million d\u2019ach\u00e8vements nets de base. Si l\u2019on combine les projections de base et les estimations du manque de logements, d\u2019apr\u00e8s l\u2019analyse de la SCHL, 5,1 millions de logements seront n\u00e9cessaires de 2023 \u00e0 2030, ce qui est bien au-dessus des 3,1 millions d\u2019unit\u00e9s estim\u00e9 par le DPB pour la p\u00e9riode allant de 2024 \u00e0 2030.","release_date":"2024-04-11T09:00:00-04:00","is_published":"2024-04-11T08:57:03-04:00","internal_id":"COM-2425-062","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/13-million-more-housing-units-will-be-required-to-close-canadas-housing-gap-by-2030-according-to-the-pbo-selon-le-dpb-13-million-de-logements-de-plus-seront-necessaires-si-lon-veut-combler-les-lacunes-en-matiere-de-logements-au-canada-dici-2030"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/13-million-more-housing-units-will-be-required-to-close-canadas-housing-gap-by-2030-according-to-the-pbo-selon-le-dpb-13-million-de-logements-de-plus-seront-necessaires-si-lon-veut-combler-les-lacunes-en-matiere-de-logements-au-canada-dici-2030"}},"pivot":{"publication_id":794,"news_release_id":62}}