Zachary Vrhovsek

Latest publications

{"id":"RP-2425-001-S","is_published":"2024-04-11T12:57:03.000000Z","release_date":"2024-04-11T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-04-11T15:03:15.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2425-001-S","title_en":"Household Formation and the Housing Stock","title_fr":"La formation de m\u00e9nages et le stock de logements","slug":"RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/72373cf7d223df67d5884cc755f9669690804b177e4b990fd4ea1217cbc36dee"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/0b8774d1a1ccd8eae2a3673a5372e39cffd69ca1875c5e56bc0fff54dcdd30e6"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/41bc94bda22afc21718a0fa6d7142ee322835d295620575263263ca7f2267242","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/12055e9737b5b9205dfe1d619c8f0376e6941d1c4e849866bdb3ad60cba403f2","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4f115224ffb1a87b9a7e7dfe6da331ded286428cbdd2456f603c9611f0d3ba5a","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/518a0cfad9f6e0ec174d93dcfb678646db64c58b0b6f4bb08fbabfc984c8206b","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/092581180c2c77239d5124ce94262587c3176e77020725212515bd00d0737393","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/20568c0d39c7dbd88b5732ddd858bad9630c34c4b69ad3f82a76dc20182dae84","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5818c05d8ebe502b61467064ad59735cf97e66a06da0e994eb8e3773ea2b8b86","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/145f3d422052650c68f01638fa93a5b6d3a9552e933204e9e979417776c0f291"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f45664688b790555b1e6dcb9c64d1028cda76c47554857a3df3bf6f1aa514a5d","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d9487d30a58cb7628257589a639b7f2e3ee0d40383a7565e86b5a1148f21c40b","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9be181c06c78b6bb76fce31a4a3f05b4fb02d20a8dfbb676a9d3118ad7629f36","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c9634f8d5cc99815c944c86b4964e8e7c50cd90fd5a78a0f05dfbbe1cd90518e","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/155a3b16a247fc3fc57c43cefcda9c3f5dfc508be72b604dfe3d9d5010f42b10","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/603e11cf579e0953235aa0d51c759fb8997e1973cb79af39fed55e8f30ef265b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ff197fcfb0c2db4bed0f89b30fbcf76db7e6077ed80e341e3fb66e4c5a72c33e","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/40fe8d509cc0f16e663859a0593fe61b9132cb467134496c552a62a4b195a4ed"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides estimates of household formation and the housing stock in Canada. The report also provides an estimate of the housing gap at the national level based on the total vacancy rate.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport pr\u00e9sente des estimations de la formation de m\u00e9nages et du stock de logements au Canada. On y trouve aussi une estimation de l\u2019\u00e9cart de l\u2019offre de logements \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale en fonction du taux d\u2019inoccupation total.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates suggest that household formation surged above pre-pandemic levels, reaching 460,000 (net) new households in 2023\u2014well in excess of record net housing completions of 242,000 units.","fr":"Les estimations du DPB indiquent que la formation de m\u00e9nage a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 ses niveaux d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 460\u2009000 (net) nouveaux m\u00e9nages en 2023, beaucoup plus que le nombre net d\u2019habitations achev\u00e9es record de 242\u2009000 unit\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates that suppressed household formation in Canada amounted to 631,000 households in 2021. That is, the number of households in 2021 in Canada would have been 631,000 (4.1 per cent) higher if attainable housing options had existed.","fr":"Le DPB estime que la non-formation de m\u00e9nages au Canada s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 631\u2009000 m\u00e9nages en 2021. Autrement dit, le nombre de m\u00e9nages en 2021 au Canada aurait compt\u00e9 631\u2009000 m\u00e9nages (4,1 %) de plus si des options de logement accessibles avaient exist\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"Based on PBO estimates, the total vacancy rate in Canada (the number of vacant units, for sale or rent, relative to the housing stock) reached a record low of 5.1 per cent in 2023\u20141.8 percentage points below its 2000-2019 average of 6.9 per cent.","fr":"Selon les estimations du DPB, le taux d\u2019inoccupation total au Canada (le nombre de logements vacants, \u00e0 vendre ou \u00e0 louer par rapport au stock total de logements) a atteint un creux record de 5,1 % en 2023, soit 1,8 point de pourcentage de moins que sa moyenne de 6,9 % de 2000 \u00e0 2019."}},{"content":{"en":"Under PBO\u2019s status quo baseline outlook, over 2024 to 2030, household formation outpaces net completions (272,000 households versus 255,000 units annually, on average). This imbalance pushes the total vacancy rate lower to 3.9 per cent in 2025, before stabilizing at around 4.0 per cent by 2030.","fr":"Selon les perspectives de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du statu quo du DPB, de 2024 \u00e0 2030, la formation de m\u00e9nages prend une avance consid\u00e9rable sur le nombre net d\u2019habitations achev\u00e9es (272\u2009000 m\u00e9nages contre 255\u2009000 logements annuellement en moyenne). Ce d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre donne lieu \u00e0 une baisse du taux d\u2019inoccupation total, qui s\u2019\u00e9tablira \u00e0 3,9 % en 2025 avant de se stabiliser \u00e0 4,0 % environ d\u2019ici 2030."}},{"content":{"en":"Relative to PBO\u2019s baseline outlook, 1.3 million additional units\u2014181,000 annually, on average\u2014would need to be completed by 2030 to eliminate Canada\u2019s housing gap, accounting for suppressed household formation.","fr":"Par rapport aux perspectives de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du DPB, il faudrait construire 1,3 million de logements additionnels, soit 181\u2009000 par ann\u00e9e en moyenne, d\u2019ici 2030 afin d\u2019\u00e9liminer l\u2019\u00e9cart de l\u2019offre de logement du Canada, en tenant compte de la non-formation de m\u00e9nages."}},{"content":{"en":"Combined with the baseline outlook for completions, closing the housing gap in Canada would result in 3.1 million net housing units completed by 2030, which translates into 436,000 units completed annually, on average, over 2024 to 2030.","fr":"Conjugu\u00e9e aux perspectives de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en ce qui concerne le nombre d\u2019habitations achev\u00e9es, l\u2019\u00e9limination de l\u2019\u00e9cart de l\u2019offre de logements au Canada n\u00e9cessiterait l\u2019ach\u00e8vement net de 3,1 millions de logements d\u2019ici 2030, ce qui est \u00e9quivalent \u00e0 l\u2019ach\u00e8vement de 436\u2009000 logements par ann\u00e9e en moyenne de 2024 \u00e0 2030."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425001S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Household Formation and the Housing Stock},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425001S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={La formation de m\\\u0027{e}nages et le stock de logements},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-027-S","is_published":"2024-03-05T13:57:09.000000Z","release_date":"2024-03-05T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-03-05T13:57:09.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-027-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2014 March 2024","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2014 Mars 2024","slug":"RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/592b2821b72a722d94c7e2ec550869247372b74075bbba84f38f09c8b398fce9"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c4cdb97a9afd883daa9e3d3e5391752c1a3def1a44039e6ae978ac84625ab38"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06095f19ca30d6fc8a62e52d7c5a64f0b9c5aa6910c3c18996b34405155b6077","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/193cee6e59ff94014ee8cde3ef61c938752076572e540ed663955de3dd4d4253","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/333d8b06ff001133abd4a56b5d354ce264bb556a0084a4f3920ee4eff8d9489c","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ccdbba14afda98a8df3c8e1228b3605e6aa2c8b67096d0e2919fd593a7535eab","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2a83fb90de2a7d96a541a581e66b63da3d200e81f92b280d7e66a73ce06ab7ea","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2634b3c2c427a0819236effc902f3b958ea661c6d9bdf202154e68a836e7f7f5","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3076bacb621066bf6486b3c84dfce44e410ccf761d848121d3983861487a7744","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/57aee2ca666b3496b4b887b4b6b374f872c8c6aabe9241457dbdab9ccca1372e"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/90f20a17fafa029f686260ced14140337e6f2188e8b1f3599b30eaf25ca5906d","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7bc398e2aac825d14c45c527125d0cbfa48fe76dd9ea7263985db5829b94e8c","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/47329158fe8dc39c56ae28a48ce0a82834432f9f7951cf313c1b33f030b21b8f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5dbaa3fe6b3a25c0c1f221ed7b11ef344a2c3e9690ef34db402122a50ff7a5f9","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/07544b6965ecbc93e866d9f5a34d45c70a4fe919ce66bbca45aae402b6a4b775","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f445fff1f4395e5a7bc05d3de9a0e4e4646d059d2a37f8d2c3956b3f773efc1c","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cc356e5be4e13ddaabf1c4d9a171b8407b4324294f84713134e868c1c8ef09d1","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6170b6fec1a23dedf88a5b804769aac1fae2ac0ec854b39e516b78aed786e9f6"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une projection de base pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires potentiels dans le contexte actuel des politiques.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) projects growth in the Canadian economy to remain sluggish through 2024. Restrictive monetary policy is expected to restrain growth in consumer spending in the first half of the year and to dampen residential investment over the course of this year. Inventory investment is projected to subtract from growth as businesses pullback on their stock building.","fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne demeure l\u00e9thargique tout au long de 2024. La politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive devrait limiter la croissance des d\u00e9penses de consommation au cours de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et freiner l\u2019investissement r\u00e9sidentiel tout au long de celle-ci. L\u2019investissement en stocks devrait freiner la croissance \u00e0 mesure que les entreprises reculent dans la constitution de leurs stocks."}},{"content":{"en":"As excess supply in the economy increases and commodity prices continue to weaken, PBO projects that Consumer price index (CPI) inflation will return to its 2 per cent target by the end of 2024. With CPI inflation on track to return to target later this year, we continue to expect the Bank of Canada to start lowering its policy rate in April.","fr":"Avec l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie et la baisse des prix des produits de base, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019inflation de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) reviendra \u00e0 sa cible de 2 % d\u2019ici la fin de 2024. L\u2019inflation de l\u2019IPC \u00e9tant en bonne voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible plus tard cette ann\u00e9e, nous nous attendons toujours \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada commence \u00e0 baisser son taux directeur en avril."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to rise to $46.8 billion (1.6 per cent of the Gross domestic product (GDP)) in 2023-24 from the $35.3 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) deficit recorded in 2022\u201123. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $16.9 billion (0.5 per cent of GDP) in 2028-29.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire augmente \u00e0 46,8 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB)) en 2023-2024 par rapport au d\u00e9ficit de 35,3 milliards de dollars (1,3 % du PIB) enregistr\u00e9 en 2022-2023. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 16,9 milliards de dollars (0,5 % du PIB) en 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to increase from its 2022-23 level of 41.7 per cent, reaching 42.4 per cent in 2023\u201124 and 42.5 per cent in 2024\u201125. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.2 per cent in 2028\u201129 but remain well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019\u201120.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB augmente par rapport \u00e0 son niveau de 41,7 % en 2022-2023 pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 42,4 % en 2023-2024 et 42,5 % en 2024-2025. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,2 % en 2028\u20112029, mais rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) to rise from 7.8 per cent in 2022\u201123 to 10.2 per cent in 2023\u201124. As the effective interest rate on debt edges higher in 2024\u201125, we project the debt service ratio to increase further and average 10.7 per cent through 2028\u201129\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les frais de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes totales) augmente, passant de 7,8 % en 2022-2023 \u00e0 10,2 % en 2023-2024. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat effectif sur la dette sera plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en 2024-2025, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que le ratio du service de la dette augmente encore et s\u2019\u00e9tablisse \u00e0 10,7 % en moyenne jusqu\u2019en 2028-2029, bien au-dessus du niveau plancher pr\u00e9pand\u00e9mique de 7,0 % en 2018-2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324027S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook \\textemdash March 2024},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324027S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res \\textemdash Mars 2024},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"LEG-2324-020-S","is_published":"2024-01-18T13:57:06.000000Z","release_date":"2024-01-18T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-01-18T13:57:06.000000Z","type":"LEG","internal_id":"LEG-2324-020-S","title_en":"Enhancements to the Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program","title_fr":"Am\u00e9liorations apport\u00e9es au Programme pour la conversion abordable du mazout \u00e0 la 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March 2023 to October 2023, the OHPA program offered eligible households a grant of up to $10,000 toward the cost of a qualified heat pump. After October 2023 and until March 2027, the enhanced OHPA program offers eligible households in co-delivery provinces a federal grant of up to $15,000, supplementary provincial grants, and a one-time bonus payment of $250.","abstract_fr":"De mars \u00e0 octobre 2023, le PCAMT a offert aux m\u00e9nages admissibles une subvention pouvant atteindre 10 000 $ pour le co\u00fbt d\u0027une thermopompe admissible. Depuis octobre 2023 et jusqu\u2019en mars 2027, le PCAMT am\u00e9lior\u00e9 offrira une subvention f\u00e9d\u00e9rale allant jusqu\u2019\u00e0 15 000 $, des subventions provinciales suppl\u00e9mentaires et une prime unique de 250 $ aux m\u00e9nages admissibles des provinces ayant conclu une entente de prestation conjointe.","highlights":[]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-LEG2324020S,\n author={Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Enhancements to the Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-LEG2324020S,\n author={Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Am\\\u0027{e}liorations apport\\\u0027{e}es au Programme pour la conversion abordable du mazout \\`{a} la thermopompe},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}