[{"label":"Home","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en"},{"label":"Team","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}},{"label":"Caroline Nicol","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe\/caroline-nicol","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}}]

Caroline Nicol

Advisor-Analyst

Caroline Nicol is an Economist with the OPBO.

Caroline completed a Master’s degree in economics at the University of Toronto and also has a Bachelor’s degree in economics from Concordia University.

Caroline previously worked in telecommunications and industry.

Latest publications

    {"id":"RP-2425-001-S","is_published":"2024-04-11T12:57:03.000000Z","release_date":"2024-04-11T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-04-11T15:03:15.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2425-001-S","title_en":"Household Formation and the Housing Stock","title_fr":"La formation de m\u00e9nages et le stock de logements","slug":"RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-001-S--household-formation-housing-stock--formation-menages-stock-logements"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/72373cf7d223df67d5884cc755f9669690804b177e4b990fd4ea1217cbc36dee"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/0b8774d1a1ccd8eae2a3673a5372e39cffd69ca1875c5e56bc0fff54dcdd30e6"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/41bc94bda22afc21718a0fa6d7142ee322835d295620575263263ca7f2267242","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/12055e9737b5b9205dfe1d619c8f0376e6941d1c4e849866bdb3ad60cba403f2","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4f115224ffb1a87b9a7e7dfe6da331ded286428cbdd2456f603c9611f0d3ba5a","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/518a0cfad9f6e0ec174d93dcfb678646db64c58b0b6f4bb08fbabfc984c8206b","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/092581180c2c77239d5124ce94262587c3176e77020725212515bd00d0737393","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/20568c0d39c7dbd88b5732ddd858bad9630c34c4b69ad3f82a76dc20182dae84","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5818c05d8ebe502b61467064ad59735cf97e66a06da0e994eb8e3773ea2b8b86","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/145f3d422052650c68f01638fa93a5b6d3a9552e933204e9e979417776c0f291"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f45664688b790555b1e6dcb9c64d1028cda76c47554857a3df3bf6f1aa514a5d","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d9487d30a58cb7628257589a639b7f2e3ee0d40383a7565e86b5a1148f21c40b","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9be181c06c78b6bb76fce31a4a3f05b4fb02d20a8dfbb676a9d3118ad7629f36","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c9634f8d5cc99815c944c86b4964e8e7c50cd90fd5a78a0f05dfbbe1cd90518e","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/155a3b16a247fc3fc57c43cefcda9c3f5dfc508be72b604dfe3d9d5010f42b10","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/603e11cf579e0953235aa0d51c759fb8997e1973cb79af39fed55e8f30ef265b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ff197fcfb0c2db4bed0f89b30fbcf76db7e6077ed80e341e3fb66e4c5a72c33e","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/40fe8d509cc0f16e663859a0593fe61b9132cb467134496c552a62a4b195a4ed"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides estimates of household formation and the housing stock in Canada. The report also provides an estimate of the housing gap at the national level based on the total vacancy rate.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport pr\u00e9sente des estimations de la formation de m\u00e9nages et du stock de logements au Canada. On y trouve aussi une estimation de l\u2019\u00e9cart de l\u2019offre de logements \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale en fonction du taux d\u2019inoccupation total.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates suggest that household formation surged above pre-pandemic levels, reaching 460,000 (net) new households in 2023\u2014well in excess of record net housing completions of 242,000 units.","fr":"Les estimations du DPB indiquent que la formation de m\u00e9nage a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 ses niveaux d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 460\u2009000 (net) nouveaux m\u00e9nages en 2023, beaucoup plus que le nombre net d\u2019habitations achev\u00e9es record de 242\u2009000 unit\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates that suppressed household formation in Canada amounted to 631,000 households in 2021. That is, the number of households in 2021 in Canada would have been 631,000 (4.1 per cent) higher if attainable housing options had existed.","fr":"Le DPB estime que la non-formation de m\u00e9nages au Canada s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 631\u2009000 m\u00e9nages en 2021. Autrement dit, le nombre de m\u00e9nages en 2021 au Canada aurait compt\u00e9 631\u2009000 m\u00e9nages (4,1 %) de plus si des options de logement accessibles avaient exist\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"Based on PBO estimates, the total vacancy rate in Canada (the number of vacant units, for sale or rent, relative to the housing stock) reached a record low of 5.1 per cent in 2023\u20141.8 percentage points below its 2000-2019 average of 6.9 per cent.","fr":"Selon les estimations du DPB, le taux d\u2019inoccupation total au Canada (le nombre de logements vacants, \u00e0 vendre ou \u00e0 louer par rapport au stock total de logements) a atteint un creux record de 5,1 % en 2023, soit 1,8 point de pourcentage de moins que sa moyenne de 6,9 % de 2000 \u00e0 2019."}},{"content":{"en":"Under PBO\u2019s status quo baseline outlook, over 2024 to 2030, household formation outpaces net completions (272,000 households versus 255,000 units annually, on average). This imbalance pushes the total vacancy rate lower to 3.9 per cent in 2025, before stabilizing at around 4.0 per cent by 2030.","fr":"Selon les perspectives de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du statu quo du DPB, de 2024 \u00e0 2030, la formation de m\u00e9nages prend une avance consid\u00e9rable sur le nombre net d\u2019habitations achev\u00e9es (272\u2009000 m\u00e9nages contre 255\u2009000 logements annuellement en moyenne). Ce d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre donne lieu \u00e0 une baisse du taux d\u2019inoccupation total, qui s\u2019\u00e9tablira \u00e0 3,9 % en 2025 avant de se stabiliser \u00e0 4,0 % environ d\u2019ici 2030."}},{"content":{"en":"Relative to PBO\u2019s baseline outlook, 1.3 million additional units\u2014181,000 annually, on average\u2014would need to be completed by 2030 to eliminate Canada\u2019s housing gap, accounting for suppressed household formation.","fr":"Par rapport aux perspectives de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du DPB, il faudrait construire 1,3 million de logements additionnels, soit 181\u2009000 par ann\u00e9e en moyenne, d\u2019ici 2030 afin d\u2019\u00e9liminer l\u2019\u00e9cart de l\u2019offre de logement du Canada, en tenant compte de la non-formation de m\u00e9nages."}},{"content":{"en":"Combined with the baseline outlook for completions, closing the housing gap in Canada would result in 3.1 million net housing units completed by 2030, which translates into 436,000 units completed annually, on average, over 2024 to 2030.","fr":"Conjugu\u00e9e aux perspectives de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en ce qui concerne le nombre d\u2019habitations achev\u00e9es, l\u2019\u00e9limination de l\u2019\u00e9cart de l\u2019offre de logements au Canada n\u00e9cessiterait l\u2019ach\u00e8vement net de 3,1 millions de logements d\u2019ici 2030, ce qui est \u00e9quivalent \u00e0 l\u2019ach\u00e8vement de 436\u2009000 logements par ann\u00e9e en moyenne de 2024 \u00e0 2030."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425001S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Household Formation and the Housing Stock},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425001S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={La formation de m\\\u0027{e}nages et le stock de logements},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-011-S","is_published":"2023-07-27T12:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2023-07-27T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-09-19T18:08:03.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-011-S","title_en":"Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023","title_fr":"Rapport sur la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de 2023","slug":"RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/14112865d6961441f766fa6e8f511a29368a6a15a3e8b8445af18c7cbda6d632"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/141f168b00bd920bc9c6e23fa8192e335ec315ad6ab81a1311d298867ae44a28"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f5a6d162ca59b837a46677d33f93a808d448d23ce2f3d0f728a1b7615ca4c325","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b64905908e3cdb87a564f5d894fbe47a75d3c8b016f20e0591566ef8df799621","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d13ebfbc0b98705694fd02a04eff3b3ee7a5d8e9f49d050ff4cea132bdbed972","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06f22380d687d415721a031d2205907078627a6c93819aabb91ddb4ea46c7345","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3e543c446205fe491ea1a7a5f1597394f9c988b6ade37e61c5cf965b3aa39b6a","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7c0e5550bb823fd105884647233c025747cc6e69c71023211c12137b0759233","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2702f13fc68a6b62db3f6905fe58be6f048111855c0663fdfade4ca923f7aa79","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d9a2c6dfb4e772a996671d768061cd9ed59feb8cc09496488bc98207fe2a177b"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/17394f7f5b7d2cd2405e3a05d1082eb72400241c249bb030a32cabf60b3ac77e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1ecda173ac7eaaadda445b78990dab20fc050b7c65630f3d62d461a57a7fda53","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/908774ade4eeeff17628e025e84732f70148140d3beb90b5f55cc891c6b4cf0f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7b71afd96030c5a71fa6885b69081feae0cff58126658e6b4b95accc98f0b0b3","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d40754705857de30a699d201f37356fcabb00c65512f7987923cd34075fb92c1","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0b907eb1cceafb94d48d829eb11798bbecc24abf316b554c630ebcc6a049f8fe","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1f436a00db8d0634a5757f25182161be439d7df54a1d3ac0c2fcad73ba51c99d","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb38410c8893c2f09e0ade99c8fa497ca4fa62241ce6bd67f9858b59c5c75dfd"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides PBO\u2019s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.","abstract_fr":"Dans ce rapport, le DPB pr\u00e9sente son \u00e9valuation de la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re \u00e0 long terme du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, des administrations infranationales et des r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"From the perspective of the total general government sector, that is federal and subnational governments and public pension plans combined, current fiscal policy in Canada is sustainable over the long term. Relative to the size of the Canadian economy, total general government net debt is projected to decline steadily over the long term due to fiscal room at the federal level and to rising net asset positions in the public pension plans.","fr":"En ce qui concerne le secteur des administrations publiques consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un tout, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, les administrations infranationales et les r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux pris ensemble, la politique budg\u00e9taire actuelle au Canada est viable \u00e0 long terme. Par rapport \u00e0 la taille de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne, la dette publique g\u00e9n\u00e9rale nette devrait diminuer progressivement \u00e0 long terme en raison de la marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re au niveau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral et de l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la situation de l\u2019actif net des r\u00e9gimes de retraite publics."}},{"content":{"en":"Current fiscal policy at the federal level is sustainable over the long term. We estimate that the federal government could permanently increase spending or reduce taxes by 1.7 per cent of GDP ($49.5 billion in current dollars, growing in line with GDP thereafter) while maintaining fiscal sustainability.","fr":"La politique budg\u00e9taire f\u00e9d\u00e9rale actuelle est viable \u00e0 long terme. Nous estimons que le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral pourrait augmenter ses d\u00e9penses ou r\u00e9duire les imp\u00f4ts de 1,7 % du PIB (49,5 milliards de dollars en dollars courants, augmentant par la suite au rythme du PIB) tout en demeurant viable sur le plan budg\u00e9taire."}},{"content":{"en":"For the subnational government sector, which includes provincial-territorial, local and Indigenous governments, current fiscal policy is sustainable over the long term. Under current policy, projected subnational government revenues and program spending are sufficient to keep the subnational government net debt-to-GDP ratio below its 2022 level over the 75-year projection horizon.","fr":"Pour ce qui est des administrations infranationales, qui comprennent les administrations provinciales, territoriales, locales et autochtones, les politiques budg\u00e9taires actuelles sont viables \u00e0 long terme. Selon la politique actuelle, les revenus et les d\u00e9penses de programmes pr\u00e9vus des administrations infranationales sont suffisantes pour maintenir le ratio de la dette nette par rapport au PIB des administrations infranationales en dessous de son niveau de 2022 pour l\u2019horizon de 75 ans."}},{"content":{"en":"The current structure of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) is sustainable over the long term. Under the current structure of the plans, projected contributions and benefits are sufficient to ensure that the net asset-to-GDP position is above its 2022 value after 75 years.","fr":"La structure actuelle tant du R\u00e9gime de pensions du Canada (RPC) que du R\u00e9gime de rentes du Qu\u00e9bec (RRQ) est viable \u00e0 long terme. Avec la structure actuelle des r\u00e9gimes, les cotisations et les prestations pr\u00e9vues sont suffisantes pour garantir que la position nette de l\u2019actif par rapport au PIB est sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 sa valeur de 2022 apr\u00e8s 75 ans."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324011S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324011S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Rapport sur la viabilit\\\u0027{e} financi\\`{e}re de 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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Par cons\u00e9quent, les dividendes re\u00e7us apr\u00e8s 2023 seront consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des revenus d\u2019entreprise normaux.","highlights":[]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-LEG2324008S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Elimination of dividend deductions from income tax for financial institutions},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-LEG2324008S,\n author={Nicol, Caroline},\n title={\\\u0027{E}limination de la d\\\u0027{e}duction pour les dividendes re\\c{c}us par des institutions financi\\`{e}res},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-008-S","is_published":"2023-06-14T12:27:03.000000Z","release_date":"2023-06-14T12:30:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-06-14T12:27:03.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-008-S","title_en":"Fiscal Analysis of Canada\u2019s 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response to interest from several Members of Parliament, this report provides a static cost estimate of the entirety of the Government of Canada\u2019s funding support for Volkswagen\u2019s electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant, as well as the economic and budgetary impacts of the plant\u2019s construction.","abstract_fr":"Afin de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat exprim\u00e9 par plusieurs d\u00e9put\u00e9s, le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une estimation statique des co\u00fbts de l\u2019ensemble du soutien financier apport\u00e9 par le gouvernement du Canada \u00e0 l\u2019usine de Volkswagen d\u00e9di\u00e9e \u00e0 la fabrication de batteries de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, ainsi que des r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires de cette construction.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The PBO estimates that the government will need to pay Volkswagen up to $16.3 billion over the period of the agreement.","fr":"Le DPB estime que le gouvernement devra verser \u00e0 Volkswagen jusqu\u0027\u00e0 16,3 milliards de dollars pendant la p\u00e9riode vis\u00e9e par l\u2019accord."}},{"content":{"en":"This report only examines the economic impact of the new facility\u2019s construction, which is marginal. We estimate that construction of the plant would increase real GDP by 0.01 per cent above its baseline projection by the end of 2027 and increase the level of employment by 1,400 jobs by that same time.","fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport n\u2019examine que les retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques de la construction de cette usine. Ces retomb\u00e9es sont marginales. Nous estimons que la construction de l\u2019usine augmenterait le PIB r\u00e9el de 0,01 % par rapport \u00e0 la projection de base d\u2019ici la fin de 2027 de m\u00eame que le niveau d\u2019emploi, avec 1 400 nouveaux postes d\u2019ici la m\u00eame \u00e9ch\u00e9ance."}},{"content":{"en":"The net budgetary impact of the plant\u2019s construction is expected to be approximately equal to the government\u2019s $0.7 billion contribution.","fr":"L\u2019incidence budg\u00e9taire nette de la construction de l\u2019usine devrait \u00eatre approximativement \u00e9gale \u00e0 la contribution du gouvernement (0,7 milliard de dollars)."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO continues to examine the government\u2019s support and will undertake an economic and fiscal analysis of the production support over the coming months.","fr":"Le DPB continue d\u2019examiner le soutien du gouvernement et entreprendra une analyse \u00e9conomique et financi\u00e8re du soutien \u00e0 la production au cours des prochains mois."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324008S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Fiscal Analysis of Canada\u2019s Support for Volkswagen\u2019s Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing Plant},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324008S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Analyse financi\\`{e}re du soutien du Canada \\`{a} la construction de l\u2019usine de fabrication de batteries pour v\\\u0027{e}hicules \\\u0027{e}lectriques de Volkswagen},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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2022."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government announced $69.7 billion in new spending (measured on a gross basis) that was partially offset by $14.0 billion in revenue-raising measures and by $12.8 billion in spending restraint measures. On a net basis, new measures further reduce the budgetary balance by $42.9 billion (or $7.2 billion per year, on average) over 2022-23 to 2027-28.","fr":"Le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 de nouvelles d\u00e9penses de l\u2019ordre de 69,7 milliards de dollars (mesur\u00e9es sur une base brute), qui sont en partie contrebalanc\u00e9es par des mesures d\u2019augmentation des recettes de 14,0 milliards de dollars et des mesures de r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9penses de 12,8 milliards de dollars. Sur une base nette, les nouvelles mesures r\u00e9duisent le solde budg\u00e9taire de 42,9 milliards de dollars (ou 7,2 milliards de dollars par ann\u00e9e en moyenne) de 2022-2023 \u00e0 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Budget 2023 does not provide an assessment of program effectiveness that the Government launched in Budget 2022 under Stream 1 of its comprehensive Strategic Policy Review.","fr":"Le budget de 2023 ne pr\u00e9sente aucune \u00e9valuation de l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 des programmes que le gouvernement a lanc\u00e9e dans le budget de 2022 dans le cadre du volet 1 de son examen exhaustif des politiques strat\u00e9giques."}},{"content":{"en":"Aside from proposing to reduce spending on consulting, other professional services and travel, Budget 2023 does not identify opportunities to save and reallocate resources \u201cto adapt government programs and operations to a new post-pandemic reality\u201d under Stream 2 of the comprehensive Strategic Policy Review launched in Budget 2022.","fr":"Outre le fait de proposer de r\u00e9duire les d\u00e9penses en services de consultation, en services professionnels et en d\u00e9placements, le budget de 2023 ne d\u00e9termine pas de possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9conomiser et de r\u00e9affecter les ressources \u00ab de fa\u00e7on \u00e0 adapter les activit\u00e9s et les programmes gouvernementaux \u00e0 la nouvelle r\u00e9alit\u00e9 post-pand\u00e9mique \u00bb sous le volet 2 de l\u2019examen exhaustif des politiques strat\u00e9giques lanc\u00e9 dans le budget de 2022."}},{"content":{"en":"In Budget 2023, the Government identified $798 million\u2014on a net basis\u2014in new \u201cnon-announced\u201d measures over 2022-23 to 2027-28. In absolute terms, this represents over $12 billion in either revenue or spending decisions for which there are no specific details.","fr":"Dans le budget de 2023, le gouvernement a cern\u00e9 de nouvelles mesures \u00ab non annonc\u00e9es \u00bb de 798 millions de dollars, sur une base nette, de 2022-2023 \u00e0 2027-2028. En valeur absolue, il s\u2019agit de d\u00e9cisions relatives aux recettes ou aux d\u00e9penses de plus de 12 milliards de dollars sur lesquelles aucun d\u00e9tail pr\u00e9cis n\u2019est donn\u00e9."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324003S,\n author={Behrend, Robert and Giswold, Jill and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Budget 2023: Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324003S,\n author={Behrend, Robert and Giswold, Jill and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Budget de 2023 : enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-025-S","is_published":"2023-03-02T13:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2023-03-02T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-03-02T13:57:04.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-025-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2014 March 2023","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2014 Mars 2023","slug":"RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/b91ed5d0fe5c8c8cbd7f4267be3aea5259b91fe8f6f48431bc565b2e280771cf"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/d712dda84b04c6449721fb3f4cb6b75abbbeee3d478b3ec9a3da6d1493a2ea40"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/89a6bae7810083bf1412af79096a587a43828ccda79d196c5b1861ca8327a1f7","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8bfd3dfc68c618671e3d50e1a9643091de164fa07d75e7053045f36dba5c1d07","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a2ea4aa1f1288a4ae5b1e4eb87efdb2a2580ecfdded631eeee1029810e0b55e5","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f0dfa56cfbb35df9706fae0f992ff8bbf4db9c896b118cb7ac8bd58e46b8d911","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e952dbe60316dd3f1dba81e0bcf583f50e55cd2d03c9e23bf1a35e8961c29297","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fa1727a263a3f7cf130e37ae86303c6c1b6d64517ce4c686dbff9c225c81226b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c747d4fc97d53b61e8645d4548e58344c96b177ca4e8296e8e41c27923470dd","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d7f5034323f7d43dfc6612441f1f47d065ef6d4cc474ee6852470619163b6444"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06b0bd214b776391e2f7933ab4ea62150223671502b22216b4ffeed322039308","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ae2d39c7bd531e0cd1cb56f77b68b0b71f4b40e2bac8da0c38c70a4421db3525","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e4c9739dc952f334f1ea353fc6909ee91550e415b0cb8352180bb75715cc19e2","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/47e2c3a6b39e5a38ff80ff5f9cd929bce1d2815d5c281c57c6b07afb1e025d96","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/09b9a1feb4ff88bc26fa95ed07dcf1a37a0d2f1454fe55b6710e81d7702e16b4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/877b35d507633ecc898443bb72f9df983cb9e02fde7faa20088a56f7c98b61a8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e0573bfbb576baa6bf96d81618ddee7aa4be2b68cff4b65b7b1ce2900a0bbf88","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/80485e6ad949ae3a7ceaef99875bb88d9746759e6ed5680e2b50d37e1e090068"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Following a stronger-than-expected performance in the second half of 2022, PBO projects the Canadian economy to stagnate through 2023. As the tightening of monetary policy takes hold, we expect a further decline in residential investment and weakness in consumer spending in the first half of this year.","fr":"Apr\u00e8s que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne ait affich\u00e9 une performance plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu lors du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de 2022, le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle stagne jusqu\u2019en 2023. \u00c0 mesure que le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire se concr\u00e9tise, nous pr\u00e9voyons de nouvelle baisse de l\u2019investissement r\u00e9sidentiel et une faiblesse des d\u00e9penses de consommation au cours de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the Bank of Canada to maintain its \u201cpause\u201d, holding the policy interest rate at 4.5 per cent, through December of this year. With CPI inflation solidly on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we then expect the Bank to start lowering its policy rate in January 2024, returning the rate to its estimated neutral level of 2.5 per cent in December 2024.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada observe sa \u00ab\u2009pause\u2009\u00bb, en maintenant le taux directeur \u00e0 4,5 % jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin du mois de d\u00e9cembre de cette ann\u00e9e. Puisque l\u2019inflation de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) est en voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque commencera \u00e0 r\u00e9duire son taux directeur en janvier 2024, puis le ram\u00e8nera \u00e0 son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 de 2,5 % en d\u00e9cembre 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"For the current fiscal year, 2022-23, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to be $36.5 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to increase to $43.1 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) in 2023-24 before resuming its downward trajectory, falling to $8.7 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP) in 2027-28.","fr":"Pour l\u2019exercice en cours de 2022-2023, le DPB pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 36,5 milliards de dollars (1,3 % du PIB) selon une politique de statu quo. En supposant qu\u2019il n\u2019y ait pas de nouvelles mesures et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit devrait augmenter \u00e0 43,1 milliards de dollars (1,5 % du PIB) en 2023-2024 avant de reprendre sa trajectoire descendante, chutant \u00e0 8,7 milliards de dollars (0,3 % du PIB) en 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Under status quo policy, PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to decline to 41.8 per cent in 2022-23 and then to temporarily rise to 42.2 per cent in 2023-24. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 38.1 per cent in 2027-28 but remain above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Selon une politique de statu quo, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB diminuera \u00e0 41,8 % en 2022-2023, puis qu\u2019il remontera temporairement \u00e0 42,2 % en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait diminuer \u00e0 38,1 % en 2027-2028. Cependant, il devrait rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau pr\u00e9-pand\u00e9mique, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to tax revenues) under status quo policy will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2023-24 and then decline gradually to 10.3 per cent in 2027-28\u2014two percentage points above its pre-pandemic low of 8.3 per cent in 2018 19.","fr":"Le DPB projette que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les charges de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes fiscales) culminera \u00e0 11,5 % en 2023-2024 selon une politique de statu quo. Ensuite, il diminuera progressivement pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 10,3 % en 2027-2028, soit deux points de pourcentage de plus que le niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie, \u00e0 savoir 8,3 % en 2018 2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223025S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook \\textemdash March 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223025S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res \\textemdash Mars 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-021-S","is_published":"2022-11-15T13:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2022-11-15T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-11-15T17:28:25.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-021-S","title_en":"Fall Economic Statement 2022 \u2014 Issues for Parliamentarians","title_fr":"\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2022 \u2014 Enjeux pour les parlementaires","slug":"RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4d3511f67746dce4f575f967ee8300b2d9cd5334ae13ed55e4eec7009a409a66"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/18fee0a19a3363e2df4f588d58c5800d850ea2b5ff6a13341ea952bcb356c0a6"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2ef05a2feca09a7d439acf30f5d960ab3f667686bd999604f4ead34858a15e1e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/52ac960b005b2dca366eefa3da5717ea0735d3d8281765b6c436841db35cd95b","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/83f40ec12cda12d943c8fcf2bbbf9057b87e955eb65d7d180ed66e997128f672","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/54763575707b0ab63a3523ad7c4bc2c2d964714b8d6d44b718627e936933765c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6a9aa78ef6b5c383e1ba589531ffd5d134892bb26b8b7dfdda13f860ca5371dc","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c5cb4d4f38eab62f1ef4eb4006843f0063dc0d42c0f1fa1d08415329e5dd72b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f4d4f67f9d9e912e802043a8d237f32e0f5f897a4a5568b6963398a3ca49eb60","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6070a7f54a4bd53c1e4686cb24c6d36401bceaa7fe26dbe711a2444caebe51a6"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a71b7ecc8c0ad9d09fa3bbdab8f3db2795c35b17b519fa72ec95c766819e096c","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/574170f474850b71fec0bbe8c12810f6bad6c2f32822d87068616664cd21d35f","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/15776af5d18c4a584eb2f78773b39f888ef73051601ddb39b4c1694ff0c45b11","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9e7f044d5da24b4eb02a54ea9a0635901ecbac64d3605fb6123a7648a3e96a0d","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3513a66f9fd1075187415f3ffb855ad251d31149740e833f00eb3741a5260cb9","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9a1d3fe894596f0c05961899b5f0275d0087e91d1ededaf0eb0a9c374e6cd7b6","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4170ef8df446310c20be3c30272b2d7b438d431d2c43fee8e0fa84fa15914206","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/42fa837fa136b4b069aacf50798eb32206a9c2a6ec435e4610df2dd94b7a0ad1"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from the 2022 Fall Economic Statement.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fait ressortir les faits saillants de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2022* pour aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Revisions to the private sector economic outlook and fiscal developments in the Fall Economic Statement provide a total of $81.2 billion in new \u201cfiscal room\u201d, which finances $52.2 billion in (net) new measures over 2022-23 to 2027-28.","fr":"Les r\u00e9visions apport\u00e9es aux perspectives \u00e9conomiques du secteur priv\u00e9 et \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution budg\u00e9taire dans l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne* procurent une nouvelle \u00ab marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re \u00bb de 81,2 milliards de dollars, ce qui permet de financer 52,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures (nettes) de 2022-2023 \u00e0 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Over 40 per cent ($21.6 billion) of new measures are \u201coff-cycle\u201d in nature, that is, they preceded the $30.6 billion in new spending identified as Fall Economic Statement measures.","fr":"Plus de 40 % (21,6 milliards de dollars) des nouvelles mesures sont de nature \u00ab hors cycle \u00bb, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire qu\u2019elles ont pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 les 30,6 milliards de dollars de nouvelles d\u00e9penses d\u00e9sign\u00e9es comme \u00e9tant des mesures de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne*."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government highlighted that it exceeded its first spending review target of $3.0 billion by achieving savings of $3.8 billion from lower-than-anticipated spending on certain COVID 19 support measures in the previous fiscal year, 2021-22. However, the source of this savings is inconsistent with the intention and timing that was announced in Budget 2022.","fr":"Le gouvernement a soulign\u00e9 qu\u2019il avait d\u00e9pass\u00e9 sa premi\u00e8re cible d\u2019examen des d\u00e9penses de 3,0 milliards de dollars en r\u00e9alisant des \u00e9conomies de 3,8 milliards de dollars gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des d\u00e9penses moins \u00e9lev\u00e9es que pr\u00e9vu pour certaines mesures de soutien li\u00e9es \u00e0 la COVID-19 au cours de l\u2019exercice pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, soit 2021-2022. Toutefois, la source de ces \u00e9conomies n\u2019est pas conforme \u00e0 l\u2019intention et au calendrier annonc\u00e9s dans le budget de 2022."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government identified $14.2 billion in new measures without providing specific details on this spending. This spending represents 27 per cent of all new measures ($52.2 billion) in the Fall Economic Statement. This lack of transparency presents challenges for parliamentarians and the public in scrutinizing the Government\u2019s spending plans.","fr":"Le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 14,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures sans fournir de d\u00e9tails sur ces d\u00e9penses. Ces d\u00e9penses repr\u00e9sentent 27 % de toutes les nouvelles mesures (52,2 milliards de dollars) de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne*. Ce manque de transparence pr\u00e9sente des d\u00e9fis pour les parlementaires et les membres du public au cours de l\u2019examen des plans de d\u00e9penses du gouvernement."}},{"content":{"en":"This year the Public Accounts were tabled on October 27\u2014seven months after the close of the fiscal year. Canada continues to fall short of the standard for advanced practice in the International Monetary Fund\u2019s financial reporting guidelines, which recommends that governments publish their annual financial statements within six months.","fr":"Cette ann\u00e9e, les Comptes publics ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9pos\u00e9s le 27 octobre \u2014 sept mois apr\u00e8s la cl\u00f4ture de l\u2019exercice. Le Canada ne respecte toujours pas la norme de pratique avanc\u00e9e des lignes directrices du Fonds mon\u00e9taire international en mati\u00e8re de rapports financiers, o\u00f9 il est recommand\u00e9 aux gouvernements de publier leurs \u00e9tats financiers annuels dans un d\u00e9lai de six mois."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223021S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and Laurin, Marianne and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Fall Economic Statement 2022 \\textemdash Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223021S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and Laurin, Marianne and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={\\\u0027{E}nonc\\\u0027{e} \\\u0027{e}conomique de l\u2019automne 2022 \\textemdash Enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-020-S","is_published":"2022-11-10T13:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2022-11-10T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-11-10T13:57:05.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-020-S","title_en":"Risk Scenario Analysis \u2014 November 2022","title_fr":"Analyse de sc\u00e9nario de risque \u2014 Novembre 2022","slug":"RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/1784db049839a6abc9fce1862c044808c8f5395a2e6cd4ff6bc72ed642de352b"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4add25f0f3fe0524f9c433ba45ef4924dabde62e3e5d5e7f973ae656a4d43a70"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9ba2db66a0231ab8aa5b2c0099153c6042de983e216631333fdbd030fee443a4","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3caca905b6e0bb2962ed687fe19c6cc86a1090a6d695b4da233285a878bb7919","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3f6fa1760a0bae5d2a6d3edcab270fa53a490feb8e2d12f1de11d6ebfe3f3a7e","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/24b7f01db1ed2e1c05e4a4bf3855260440c9a2f9b0bc21dbe5d1295689d019c3","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b386a4acb137ce93d95c5a358bb89f1aa3ec86457664e9b9549510e0825ba487","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3cebe4cb090ff42b371b22f59326e72a57591b65f30ec28d03598f32480052d2","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06c5f829ec5b71c436108ae2031e4d47400ddf6a28bfac56fe983426945cf640","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/19244a50c1cc10599289bd9f560870402a1ff345f376c67c23c2ee3b62fa45b3"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/864e05e30bbd443b983df6ce74adab5067394fe483ea07485cd980baa419e8ad","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fb87d4f0ee7ef2867e8305574cac5ecfef7af2015a1ba90ceae30a5f78413daa","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0203f253d0c718aa7dd4f59961cce2266f702b91a880a4a1ef5ad47609d59bb7","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/df6b5342fbd6e3c834bdcede16ffd86a9f015d4425335d87cb995278bc326167","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1bb0219a6f866dec9f554e01e6d484ecd1c3718e2dfbc4ffae181a3e82571e1c","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/39d9221f1edfd01bd00c9fe70a99a207e66eeac8e5eab755c9c37b31cff16ce3","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2cf79e87b40ad197102eaeafb72b079efa16750e211bd59913dca52069867edb","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2c5bb7701b5ea810495b8bef191eeacf5d1cb8b27de3e88fbe7da744d15081ab"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a risk scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of central banks over-tightening monetary policy. **The scenario is not a most-likely forecast. It is an illustrative scenario of one possible outcome.**","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport propose une analyse de sc\u00e9nario de risque pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les possibles r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res d\u2019un resserrement excessif de la politique mon\u00e9taire par les banques centrales. **Le sc\u00e9nario ne constitue pas une pr\u00e9vision. Il ne montre qu\u2019une des issues possibles \u00e0 la situation.**","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Our risk scenario assumes that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will continue to rapidly raise their policy interest rates to 5.25 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively, in early 2023 (100 basis points above our October outlook). We assume that the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada will begin to lower their policy rates in early 2024.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, nous supposons que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine et la Banque du Canada continueront d\u2019augmenter rapidement leur taux directeur, de sorte qu\u2019il atteigne 5,25 % et 5,0 % respectivement au d\u00e9but de 2023 (100 points de base de plus que dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre). Nous supposons qu\u2019elles commenceront \u00e0 abaisser leur taux au d\u00e9but de 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"With the over-tightening of monetary policy, real GDP in Canada begins to contract in the fourth quarter of 2022 and declines further over the course of 2023 in our risk scenario. Annual real GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 is -0.3 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, which is 1.5 and 1.0 percentage points lower compared to our October outlook.","fr":"Compte tenu du resserrement excessif de la politique mon\u00e9taire pr\u00e9vu dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le PIB r\u00e9el du Canada commence \u00e0 se contracter au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2022 et continue de diminuer en 2023. La croissance annuelle du PIB r\u00e9el en 2023 et en 2024 est de 0,3 % et 1,3 % respectivement, ce qui repr\u00e9sente une baisse de 1,5 et 1,0 point de pourcentage par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives d\u2019octobre."}},{"content":{"en":"Under our risk scenario, employment growth essentially stalls in late 2022 and over the course of 2023. Employment falls below levels projected in our October outlook, resulting in a loss of 177,000 (net) jobs by the end of 2024. The unemployment rate rises to 6.2 per cent in early 2024 in our risk scenario, which is 0.5 percentage points above our October outlook.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, la croissance de l\u2019emploi stagne essentiellement \u00e0 la fin de 2022 et en 2023. L\u2019emploi tombe sous les niveaux pr\u00e9vus dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre, ce qui se traduit par une perte de 177 000 emplois (nets) d\u2019ici la fin de 2024. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage passe \u00e0 6,2 % au d\u00e9but de 2024 dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, soit 0,5 point de pourcentage de plus que ce que nous pr\u00e9voyions dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to weaker economic activity and higher interest rates in 2023 and 2024 under our risk scenario, the budgetary deficit reaches $42.9 billion in 2023-24 (1.5 per cent of GDP) and $36.5 billion in 2024-25 (1.3 per cent of GDP). Compared to our October outlook, the budgetary deficit is $15.6 billion higher per year, on average, over 2023-24 to 2027-28.","fr":"En raison du ralentissement de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et de la hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, en 2023 et 2024 pr\u00e9vus dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 42,9 milliards de dollars en 2023-2024 (1,5 % du PIB) et \u00e0 36,5 milliards en 2024-2025 (1,3 % du PIB). Par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives d\u2019octobre, il est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de 15,6 milliards de dollars par ann\u00e9e, en moyenne, de 2023-2024 \u00e0 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Under our risk scenario, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio increases to 43.2 per cent of GDP in 2023-24 and remains elevated before gradually falling to 39.2 per cent in 2027-28. The debt service ratio (that is public debt charges relative to tax revenues) reaches 14.3 per cent in 2024-25 and then declines to 12.0 per cent in 2027-28.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB augmente pour passer \u00e0 43,2 % du PIB en 2023-2024 et reste \u00e9lev\u00e9 avant de revenir graduellement \u00e0 39,2 % en 2027-2028. Le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes fiscales) atteint 14,3 % en 2024-2025 avant de retomber \u00e0 12,0 % en 2027-2028."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223020S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Behrend, Robert and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Risk Scenario Analysis \\textemdash November 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223020S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Behrend, Robert and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Analyse de sc\\\u0027{e}nario de risque \\textemdash Novembre 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-018-S","is_published":"2022-10-13T12:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2022-10-13T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-13T12:57:05.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-018-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 October 2022","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Octobre 2022","slug":"RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/258865a69ecf369e99f05a9e799d04136ed8c0b04830967d0ad5aecfd59f90f9"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/51a083e93dd377e22512a1bded7c9ec3406c0f7fac7eb2d3cc34b5fb31543ee6"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d7fa73999c04307e23d86d96180e5f91c31033c5a98ee407dc6b62cf9055991a","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9d332a78925718b07fbda3f93d76ab9bb2aebdba80cd6e29adc6f4cb242d2ddf","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fbb974d4b634d9d774e0b6d9a8963dcc027d71682e31681f69f8d3b8a772ef81","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b1ed7e24b589eb9697f566532534e451fdf683e36f72b4528766a85f31585db4","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fd5194e7f1ad4e2700932baba6f3337de968a2b78fbf3ac192ba3f9ddbca25f2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/569284196971fde0ae04a2fe40f3fb15fd9aeb8212b3a92d03fa50b47895fe1b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9c606032b827b08e41f6ef8fcef2179d1759bc6853619320448436732c0eb62c","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4e27d041a155bc9dbb184b1c2a2a5f0188b46d4baea9c42d68345e6e2188e539"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e868718d7e6d6970c4c12049c275e08082aad802f134c34933002ffffb819e10","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f6a27cfedbbd466a775bce54ecdf70d3f89806f124a864cedfd28e534ff00e9f","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/765b7fa64713a56d6569df337c447227e123b34ac1898507a5cadc055ea531f1","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3c2ccb74035ad35fa788f6075f4f194cfa212d85ad15450156ab4e19a9370a68","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ca52aaabbc28d4b60d603d25ababb7e5100d76064e4e8ffdef1c0cfb6c1ce1d2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d2b396382ddf283ac93c1e58d239a0485c786a64e9c61c61435e62d76eddc6ad","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b0bd984003014b83e12072b4962d24e1abbf54f1bdcbdac4f1f3a62f069bef29","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6b3117d563ea91e5017f03f8b53059e09c7bd98995dbfa2b78a825de0b37a3d6"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Since the beginning of March, the Bank of Canada has increased its policy rate by a total of 300 basis points. We expect the Bank to increase its policy rate further, reaching 4 per cent by the end of this year. With the tightening of monetary policy, PBO projects real GDP growth in Canada to slow considerably in the second half of 2022 and remain weak through 2023.","fr":"Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois de mars, la Banque du Canada a relev\u00e9 son taux directeur de 300 points de base au total et on peut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle le rel\u00e8ve encore pour qu\u2019il atteigne 4 % d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Avec le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire, le DPB pr\u00e9voit un net ralentissement de la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el du Canada pendant la seconde moiti\u00e9 de 2022 et une faible croissance tout au long de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"As supply constraints ease and commodity prices recede from elevated levels in the first half of 2022, softer demand in 2023 is expected to contribute to sustained reductions in CPI inflation. With CPI inflation solidly on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we expect the Bank of Canada to start lowering its policy interest rate in late 2023.","fr":"Les difficult\u00e9s d\u2019approvisionnement s\u2019estompant et le cours des produits de base baissant par rapport aux niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s dans la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de 2022, le fl\u00e9chissement de la demande en 2023 devrait contribuer \u00e0 la baisse continue de l\u2019inflation des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC). Celle-ci \u00e9tant alors en tr\u00e8s bonne voie pour revenir \u00e0 la cible de 2 %, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada commence \u00e0 baisser son taux directeur \u00e0 la fin de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"In the absence of final financial results for the past fiscal year, PBO estimates that there was a budgetary deficit of $97.0 billion (3.9 per cent of GDP) in 2021-22. For the current fiscal year 2022-23, PBO projects the deficit to decline to $25.8 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy.","fr":"En l\u2019absence de r\u00e9sultats financiers d\u00e9finitifs pour le dernier exercice, le DPB estime que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire pour 2021-2022 s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vait \u00e0 97 milliards de dollars (3,9 % du PIB). Pour l\u2019exercice en cours, 2022-2023, il devrait revenir \u00e0 25,8 milliards de dollars (0,9 % du PIB), si la politique demeure inchang\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to decline further, reaching $3.1 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in 2027-28, as growth in tax revenue tracks gains in nominal GDP and growth in program spending remains constrained.","fr":"En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne sera introduite et que les mesures temporaires actuelles prendront fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait continuer de baisser pour atteindre 3,1 milliards de dollars (0,1 % du PIB) en 2027-2028, la croissance des recettes fiscales suivant la hausse du PIB nominal et l\u2019augmentation des d\u00e9penses de programmes restant limit\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to continue to decline from its peak in 2020-21, gradually reaching 36.2 per cent in 2027-28, but remain above its pre-pandemic level. We project the debt service ratio (public debt charges relative to tax revenues) will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2024-25 and then decline gradually, reaching 10.9 per cent in 2027-28.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB continuera de baisser par rapport au pic atteint en 2020-2021 pour revenir graduellement \u00e0 36,2 % en 2027-2028, mais qu\u2019il restera sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il \u00e9tait avant la pand\u00e9mie. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes fiscales) atteindra 11,5 % en 2024-2025, avant de redescendre graduellement \u00e0 10,9 % en 2027-2028."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223018S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223018S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Octobre 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"LEG-2223-014-S","is_published":"2022-09-22T12:57:01.000000Z","release_date":"2022-09-22T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-02-07T18:33:45.000000Z","type":"LEG","internal_id":"LEG-2223-014-S","title_en":"Canada Recovery Dividend","title_fr":"Dividende pour la relance au Canada","slug":"LEG-2223-014-S--canada-recovery-dividend--dividende-relance-canada","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2223-014-S--canada-recovery-dividend--dividende-relance-canada","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2223-014-S--canada-recovery-dividend--dividende-relance-canada"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2223-014-S--canada-recovery-dividend--dividende-relance-canada","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2223-014-S--canada-recovery-dividend--dividende-relance-canada"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/f32c8c959f20ab81f51320b6613b4cb03c712a723270eee3554374dfd8ed64c4"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/07ad9fd932fab276cfad6e1fe1606b4b6d3febc60219fbe7725cab7fa6a0606d"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f0f93a5617abbab7d0cc80539cacdde1fe5ea138e3b59c140fa484bb40cee2a5","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ff79eefb29b8ba525a87c8d46e89bef663d50cc337c2bb3dc895ccd131254f6d","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/20c68f88f1456241c31c356ecc336aa9e8bacaa6f757b84f3fe00439584d5bcd","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8193c939c12957e506b8746485e848ae7923ce807f52e7d859a8406e8d2c031d","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/822d12d46832e9ad99d90e718db6ea823e47f46306c1795ed28d8af4bafde30d","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dfcac3c316967c86990126138c834bdcc1441f5a71bd024a5e8c9030120e21bd","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/18fc146a33e6e945566fb3c4ddc68c5d8487268b327292ab43633600e06c8730","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c4e14cc6d234d2fd1d0ae18a0ff1a6e3f251292db1cad727cd206d027d22e6a3"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3ccf49498d0ba095b606ef4b894bbcc8d17d06b7ad0a2808bb781901c99d57d8","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4eeaa3ffd6315d1759f525179e0197fe9b83d96f8fb09e07987ce8b1875e0bda","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb957ad1e559a6443a5a63fc933f4428c241c27f8c9cd14e7e7365b08ce8f3c2","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/63ea35bf8db4345b642ddf2032c0ec632e99b185e8d6dc7e0a6c6c2e348c7cb9","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/78ce26dd3e71aeacd14aab2211f61d78dce0752875dff0c6f18b6f734407134a","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dbb4cbacbe9eb406a662e1db45c0012a482348bdc67aec505b16f7935c24ddee","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/49f455b46f793fd85eed81a40c0e9ad81d4ac243b0f33babeedc6b215c33a4e4","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2186bfe22c9b11b97cdc2cec00ec5eb7e9a5b2b4df1d12286ddd9dbb2ee5e30b"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"The Canada Recovery Dividend is a one-time tax on banking and life insurance groups. The amount payable is calculated as 15% of the average Canadian-based taxable income over 2020 and 2021 minus a 1 billion deduction. It will be imposed for the 2022 taxation year and will be paid in equal installments over five years.\n\nIt is to be noted that this definition follows what is laid out in the draft legislation and differs from what was published in Budget 2022. The initially proposed tax base for this measure was the 2021 Canadian-based taxable income instead of the two-year average.\n\nThe PBO estimates the total revenue from the corporate surtax of financial institutions to be $3.0 billion.","abstract_fr":"Le Dividende pour la relance au Canada est un imp\u00f4t ponctuel impos\u00e9 aux groupes de banques et d\u2019assureurs-vie. Le montant \u00e0 payer est calcul\u00e9 comme \u00e9tant 15 % du revenu imposable moyen bas\u00e9 au Canada pour 2020 et 2021, moins une d\u00e9duction de 1 milliard. Celui-ci sera impos\u00e9 pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e d\u2019imposition 2022 et sera payable en montants \u00e9gaux sur cinq ans.\n\nIl est \u00e0 noter que cette d\u00e9finition suit ce qui est pr\u00e9vu dans l\u2019avant-projet de loi et diff\u00e8re de ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 dans le budget 2022. L\u0027assiette fiscale initialement propos\u00e9e pour cette mesure \u00e9tait le revenu imposable de 2021 bas\u00e9 au Canada au lieu de la moyenne sur deux ans.\n\nLe DPB estime \u00e0 3,0 milliards de dollars les recettes totales de la surtaxe sur les profits des institutions financi\u00e8res.","highlights":[]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-LEG2223014S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim},\n title={Canada Recovery Dividend},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-LEG2223014S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim},\n title={Dividende pour la relance au Canada},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"LEG-2223-013-S","is_published":"2022-09-22T12:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2022-09-22T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-07-13T14:18:25.000000Z","type":"LEG","internal_id":"LEG-2223-013-S","title_en":"Additional Tax on Banks and Life Insurers","title_fr":"Taxe suppl\u00e9mentaire aux banques et aux assureurs-vie","slug":"LEG-2223-013-S--additional-tax-banks-life-insurers--taxe-supplementaire-banques-assureurs-vie","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2223-013-S--additional-tax-banks-life-insurers--taxe-supplementaire-banques-assureurs-vie","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2223-013-S--additional-tax-banks-life-insurers--taxe-supplementaire-banques-assureurs-vie"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2223-013-S--additional-tax-banks-life-insurers--taxe-supplementaire-banques-assureurs-vie","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2223-013-S--additional-tax-banks-life-insurers--taxe-supplementaire-banques-assureurs-vie"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/ff6e87a3e89a5a03690a45c3ec9cfe5f51c391a2aac4535b019e28cd1ee3b8bf"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/ad5dad852a6833521e2ec0b4cb497f5408ea3dc8b27edd705734684034cf694e"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/88463aadb3cad87f65299b5272a7b45b9561c667626a12656d14a47b9e08a737","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/21ffa133e5600118994477a4496a15ae1664cc3dc59c00afe87751eed46c4a86","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8f54ca1103396e0b440a9170fd76b45bac1680e62aff752c259426d546de664d","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9c9b6cb348a078d429808691d840491988aa0c671de400be793786f3f9c2367e","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/492c190e4e4d84cc9b29135b5fe0132c0ee8af1f34e6ad24fddbede4ad9b4551","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/216e06a952749245742d3b3c0482a35503193e0c8880bdebf0ac29efbc2f6b74","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/aa16e6f86ad9ab991db6e5a1a670ea6a323531587e02825f9b4ebcef88232d71","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7fbf29c4d1b769071843451cabe19c7d86c4e968ac4b67d4f48996ec0f53725"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ef285f159713e64da86bc2af1784c881c55e1b7f3c58508304c4f492e1923b71","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a9f5ed279ce6a8f4687631c00066a759cdcac4c1f827e25d61181625b9e8ed5b","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1d9ac82b4cfe0b10c70a2745ab69fd1ca68e1b2298253dedac1ccec6a02463c0","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8da0b2aa690fbb83ef645e501bf288f57abe39f74bde9798ae3b29ecd2f46802","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/123a15824e2f99db6e219958f5d47a739637b5a3b8f86c8969736280995712c4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6d591bc3b4ee625f288ddb4b54773234f193fbe93783288db80d142abc10e006","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/822cc244b5776cf0ec9361cb1bd2248f28902245e5d2a075a19268afcf983aed","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/27af2fd45e0aa799572120a7b4c1e324996f9d0ed03cb3acb3f5dd113b227c30"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"Budget 2022 introduced an increase of the corporate income tax rate of 1.5 percentage points on the taxable income of banking and life insurance groups above $100 million. This will increase the overall federal corporate income tax rate above this threshold from 15.0 per cent to 16.5 per cent for all taxation years that end after Budget Day 2022. For a taxation year that includes Budget Day, the additional tax is prorated based on the number of days in the taxation year after Budget Day.\n\nThe PBO estimates the total revenue from the Additional Tax on Banks and Life Insurers to be $2.3 billion.","abstract_fr":"Le budget de 2022 pr\u00e9voit une augmentation de 1,5 point de pourcentage du taux d\u2019imposition du revenu des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s sur le revenu imposable des groupes de banques et d\u2019assureurs-vie au-del\u00e0 d\u2019un seuil de 100 millions de dollars. Au-del\u00e0 de ce seuil, le taux f\u00e9d\u00e9ral global d\u2019imposition du revenu des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s passera de 15,0 pour cent \u00e0 16,5 pour cent pour toutes les ann\u00e9es d\u2019imposition se terminant apr\u00e8s le jour du budget de 2022. Dans le cas d\u2019une ann\u00e9e d\u2019imposition comprenant le jour du budget, l\u2019imp\u00f4t suppl\u00e9mentaire est calcul\u00e9 au prorata selon le nombre de jours compris dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e d\u2019imposition apr\u00e8s le jour du budget.\n\nLe DPB estime \u00e0 2,3 milliards de dollars les recettes totales de la taxe suppl\u00e9mentaire aux banques et aux assureurs-vie.","highlights":[]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-LEG2223013S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Additional Tax on Banks and Life Insurers},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-LEG2223013S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Taxe suppl\\\u0027{e}mentaire aux banques et aux assureurs-vie},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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2022","slug":"RP-2223-012-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2022--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-012-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2022--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-012-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2022--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-012-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2022--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-012-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2022--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/faf2336e3e33f177db17e07f924f79858bc02357a5d58b1c77a55afc3d0598d8"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/cd43a38a920edb3f0d052e0a807291bc3efe2ba54c82387d5378b204cbf05b7d"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/64d30f3965d40248b57fbaf8002cc3ae495f0a275997652b9648c1792fd5d85e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5d2f561200af25edd7e00e5b36ed0696941cf189de13c7986962d75d4d300de4","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5b3a161d754e4462d3758315f2d6b0adbee1122d7534cbd71e62d3966a676c5e","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4ddc6bbbbf62a71c542ac4135fb26a13afb06e0294ea353d4544fe242afb2db2","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e19002ead850791370446485498789c9d57aa5c45bd9970fb84c5ccad38e7f4a","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7bf6659d427b89908c6ec3fce0ef77593a7599e3390db38db327cb61a40498ef","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c21e1cf014674f73c9da71bae9964304b7e5e7a3885cee64e9455423bd6e0891","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/29402b68d07d2f08191cd63fa7853600f0c5021a567cd8ace6862e29e54d5ed1"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b12b07d5bfd0956831f79bf0a08416478ddc5dd82b93437b4a66d53c57e7ae7f","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/384f437ccc54a3cc97f7005d13b41b6b2d68a21b04384402f1d1f741b6c1a4a2","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/509ec720c4008ef8c7b7ec50f3ab902177b2cd09721252d81c8f010b27af0bf4","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d525b4e0ce2ffaa0d9c3f19b606e509b48a6a826288c6b7861d68ae6f9f4b35e","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c15826e42ded842c563528e6f56d2f520fa18977e6c4e96893c25ad3672c7aee","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/46addf1b47701e813ad2f309f8c25bb326875be462929ce9c2a1fbc329de0fbd","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/69e3628c85efdc9718c716e46fb7e5fcdced9037fc8e56eb7639462bd8fd3a07","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ad71a823b3439bd66005413a835dba55ad85d5719b194e182d900dec6ed60c19"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides PBO\u2019s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.","abstract_fr":"Dans ce rapport le DPB pr\u00e9sente son \u00e9valuation de la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re \u00e0 long terme du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, des administrations infranationales et des r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"From the perspective of the total general government sector, that is federal and subnational governments and public pension plans combined, current fiscal policy in Canada is sustainable over the long term. Relative to the size of the Canadian economy, total general government net debt is projected to decline steadily over the long term primarily due to fiscal room at the federal level.","fr":"En ce qui concerne le secteur des administrations publiques consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un tout, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, les administrations infranationales et les r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux pris ensemble, la politique budg\u00e9taire actuelle au Canada est viable \u00e0 long terme. Par rapport \u00e0 la taille de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne, la dette nette de l\u2019ensemble du secteur des administrations publiques devrait diminuer progressivement \u00e0 long terme principalement en raison de la marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re au niveau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral."}},{"content":{"en":"Current fiscal policy at the federal level is sustainable over the long term. We estimate that the federal government could permanently increase spending or reduce taxes by 1.8 per cent of GDP ($45 billion in current dollars, growing in line with GDP thereafter) while maintaining fiscal sustainability.","fr":"La politique budg\u00e9taire actuelle au niveau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral est viable \u00e0 long terme. Nous estimons que le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral pourrait, de fa\u00e7on permanente, augmenter ses d\u00e9penses ou r\u00e9duire ses imp\u00f4ts de 1,8 % du PIB (45 milliards de dollars en dollars courants, augmentant par la suite au rythme du PIB) tout en maintenant la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re."}},{"content":{"en":"For provincial-territorial, local and Indigenous governments, current fiscal policy is not sustainable over the long term\u2014albeit to a modest extent. We estimate that permanent tax increases or spending reductions amounting to 0.1 per cent of GDP would be required to achieve fiscal sustainability over the long term.","fr":"Pour les administrations provinciales-territoriales, locales et autochtones, la politique budg\u00e9taire actuelle n\u2019est pas viable \u00e0 long terme, bien que dans une mesure modeste. Nous estimons qu\u2019il faudrait augmenter les imp\u00f4ts ou r\u00e9duire les d\u00e9penses en permanence de 0,1 % du PIB pour atteindre la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re \u00e0 long terme."}},{"content":{"en":"The current structure of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) is sustainable over the long term. Under the current structure of the plans, projected contributions and benefits are sufficient to ensure that the net asset-to-GDP position is at or above its 2021 value after 75 years.","fr":"La structure actuelle du R\u00e9gime de pensions du Canada (RPC) et du R\u00e9gime de rentes du Qu\u00e9bec (RRQ) est viable \u00e0 long terme. Selon la structure actuelle des plans, les cotisations et les prestations pr\u00e9vues sont suffisantes pour que la position de l\u2019actif net par rapport au PIB soit \u00e9gale ou sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 sa valeur de 2021 apr\u00e8s 75 ans."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223012S,\n author={MacPhee, Sarah and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Kho, Albert and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Fiscal Sustainability Report 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223012S,\n author={MacPhee, Sarah and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Kho, Albert and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Rapport sur la viabilit\\\u0027{e} financi\\`{e}re de 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-001-S","is_published":"2022-04-22T12:57:10.000000Z","release_date":"2022-04-22T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-04-22T13:03:40.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-001-S","title_en":"Budget 2022: Issues for parliamentarians","title_fr":"Budget de 2022 : Consid\u00e9rations pour les 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assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2022.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fait ressortir les faits saillants du budget de 2022 pour aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Since the start of the pandemic, the Government has spent, or has planned to spend, $576 billion in new measures\u2014over 35 per cent, $204.5 billion, of this spending is not part of the COVID-19 Response Plan.","fr":"Depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie, le gouvernement a d\u00e9pens\u00e9, ou pr\u00e9vu de d\u00e9penser, 576 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures \u2013 plus de 35 % de ces d\u00e9penses, soit 204,5 milliards de dollars, ne fait pas partie du Plan d\u2019intervention \u00e9conomique du Canada pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la COVID-19."}},{"content":{"en":"Implementation of any remaining measures from the Liberal Party of Canada\u2019s 2021 election platform, as well as additional commitments not included in Budget 2022, such as Pharmacare, will impact the budgetary balance going forward.","fr":"La mise en \u0153uvre de toute mesure restante du programme \u00e9lectoral de 2021 du Parti lib\u00e9ral du Canada, ainsi que tout engagement suppl\u00e9mentaire non indiqu\u00e9 au budget de 2022, comme l\u2019assurance-m\u00e9dicaments, aura une incidence sur le solde budg\u00e9taire ult\u00e9rieur."}},{"content":{"en":"Budget 2022 includes new spending on tax compliance, which is expected to recover $3.4 billion in revenues. There is downside risk to the projected recovery in revenues due to a likely increase in the number of objections and appeals from taxpayers and CRA\u2019s performance on the collection of arrears.","fr":"Le budget de 2022 comporte de nouvelles d\u00e9penses pour l\u2019observation fiscale, dont on s\u2019attend qu\u2019elles entra\u00eenent le recouvrement de recettes fiscales de 3,4 milliards de dollars. Les recettes recouvr\u00e9es pourraient toutefois \u00eatre moins \u00e9lev\u00e9es que pr\u00e9vu, en raison d\u2019une probable augmentation du nombre d\u2019oppositions et d\u2019appels des contribuables et du rendement de l\u2019ARC en mati\u00e8re de perception des arri\u00e9r\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government expects to reduce spending by $9.0 billion beginning in 2023-24. The Government intends to review and identify areas to reduce spending. However, specific details regarding the scope of the review have not yet been announced.","fr":"Le gouvernement s\u2019attend \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les d\u00e9penses de 9,0 milliards de dollars en 2023-2024. Il entend proc\u00e9der \u00e0 un examen afin de d\u00e9terminer les secteurs o\u00f9 les d\u00e9penses seront r\u00e9duites. Cependant, certains d\u00e9tails sur la port\u00e9e de l\u2019examen n\u2019ont pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"The tabling of Budget 2022 a month after the Government\u2019s Main Estimates decouples the Government\u2019s fiscal planning from the medium-term operational plans tabled in Parliament. Parliamentarians could be well served by adopting a new legislative or administrative framework to enforce better alignment among the Government\u2019s various financial reports.","fr":"Le d\u00e9p\u00f4t du budget de 2022 un mois apr\u00e8s la pr\u00e9sentation du budget principal des d\u00e9penses dissocie la planification financi\u00e8re du gouvernement des plans op\u00e9rationnels \u00e0 moyen terme d\u00e9pos\u00e9s au Parlement. Il pourrait \u00eatre utile que les parlementaires adoptent un nouveau cadre l\u00e9gislatif ou administratif pour imposer une meilleure harmonisation entre les divers rapports financiers du gouvernement."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223001S,\n author={Bernier, Govindadeva and Grinshpoon, Kristina and Jacques, Jason and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Perrault, Louis and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Budget 2022: Issues for parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223001S,\n author={Bernier, Govindadeva and Grinshpoon, Kristina and Jacques, Jason and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Perrault, Louis and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Budget de 2022 : Consid\\\u0027{e}rations pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2122-030-S","is_published":"2022-03-01T14:00:03.000000Z","release_date":"2022-03-01T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-03-01T14:00:03.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2122-030-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 March 2022","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Mars 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report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente des pr\u00e9visions de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles en vertu des cadres d\u2019action actuels.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO projects growth in the Canadian economy to rebound sharply in the second quarter and remain robust in the second half of 2022 as the reopening of the economy continues.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne reprendra nettement au cours du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre et qu\u2019elle demeurera solide durant la deuxi\u00e8me moiti\u00e9 de 2022 alors que se poursuit la r\u00e9ouverture progressive de l\u2019\u00e9conomie."}},{"content":{"en":"Based on our outlook for inflation and the output gap, PBO projects that the Bank of Canada will increase its policy interest rate by a cumulative 75 basis points, lifting its rate to 1.00 per cent by the end of 2022.","fr":"En s\u2019appuyant sur ses perspectives concernant l\u2019inflation et l\u2019\u00e9cart de production, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la Banque du Canada va augmenter son taux directeur de 75 points de base cumulatifs, relevant le taux \u00e0 1 % d\u2019ici la fin de 2022."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects a budget deficit of $139.8 billion (5.6 per cent of GDP) in 2021-22 and $47.9 billion (1.8 per cent of GDP) in 2022-23. We project the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to peak at 47.7 per cent in 2021-22 and then gradually decline over the medium term to 42.3 per cent.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 139,8 milliards de dollars en 2021-2022 (5,6 % du PIB) et de 47,9 milliards de dollars en 2022-2023, soit 1,8 % du PIB. Le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB devrait atteindre un sommet \u00e0 47,7 % du PIB en 2021-2022 avant de revenir progressivement \u00e0 moyen terme \u00e0 42,3 %."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to low interest rates, the cost of servicing the federal debt reached its lowest recorded level in 2020-21 of 7.2 per cent of tax revenues. While interest rates are projected to rise, the debt service ratio will remain low, reaching 11.5 per cent of tax revenues over the medium term.","fr":"\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 les faibles taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, le co\u00fbt de service de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale a atteint son niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 en 2020-2021, \u00e0 7,2 % des recettes fiscales. Malgr\u00e9 la hausse anticip\u00e9e des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, le ratio du service de la dette du gouvernement demeurera bas, atteignant 11,5 % des recettes fiscales \u00e0 moyen terme."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122030S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Duncan, Krista and Forsyth, Jamie and Giswold, Jill and MacPhee, Sarah and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Segel-Brown, Ben and Sourang, Diarra and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122030S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Duncan, Krista and Forsyth, Jamie and Giswold, Jill and MacPhee, Sarah and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Segel-Brown, Ben and Sourang, Diarra and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Mars 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2122-028-S","is_published":"2022-02-03T14:00:09.000000Z","release_date":"2022-02-03T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-02-03T14:00:09.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2122-028-S","title_en":"Cost Estimate of the Federal National Child Care Plan","title_fr":"Estimation des co\u00fbts du plan national de garde 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report provides an estimated cost of the provincial and territorial aspects of the federal national child care plan announced in Budget 2021.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une estimation du co\u00fbt des volets provinciaux et territoriaux du plan national de garde d\u2019enfants annonc\u00e9 dans le budget de 2021.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The PBO estimated the provincial and territorial aspects of the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care Plan to be a cumulative net cost of $26,439 million by the end of 2025-26.","fr":"Le DPB a estim\u00e9 que les volets provinciaux et territoriaux du plan pancanadien d\u2019apprentissage et de garde des jeunes enfants repr\u00e9senteraient un co\u00fbt net cumulatif de 26 439 millions de dollars d\u2019ici fin 2025-2026."}},{"content":{"en":"This estimate was then compared to the funding outlined for this plan in Budget 2021.","fr":"Cette estimation a ensuite \u00e9t\u00e9 compar\u00e9e au financement d\u00e9crit pour ce plan dans le budget de 2021."}},{"content":{"en":"The gross cost would be $28,283 million, $1,083 million more than the $27,200 million outlined in Budget 2021 for the provincial and territorial aspects of the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care Plan.","fr":"Le co\u00fbt brut serait de 28 283 millions de dollars, soit 1 083 millions de dollars de plus que les 27 200 millions de dollars pr\u00e9vus dans le budget de 2021 pour les volets provinciaux et territoriaux du plan pancanadien d\u2019apprentissage et de garde des jeunes enfants."}},{"content":{"en":"In addition to increasing the number of child care spaces and providing fee subsidies, the plan would impact Child Care Expense Deduction (CCED) claims, income tax revenue, and Canada Child Benefit (CCB) transfers. This would lead to a cumulative cost recovery of $1,844 million by the end of 2025-26.","fr":"En plus d\u2019augmenter le nombre de places en garderie et de subventionner les frais de garde, le plan aurait une incidence sur les demandes de d\u00e9duction pour frais de garde d\u2019enfants (DFGE), les recettes tir\u00e9es de l\u2019imp\u00f4t sur le revenu et les transferts de l\u2019Allocation canadienne pour enfants (ACE). Cela entra\u00eenerait un recouvrement cumulatif des co\u00fbts de 1 844 millions de dollars d\u2019ici la fin 2025-2026."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122028S,\n author={Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Cost Estimate of the Federal National Child Care Plan},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122028S,\n author={Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Estimation des couts du plan national de garde d\u2019enfants},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2122-027-S","is_published":"2022-01-19T14:00:10.000000Z","release_date":"2022-01-19T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-01-19T14:00:10.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2122-027-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Update 2021: Issues for Parliamentarians","title_fr":"Mise \u00e0 jour 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report highlights key issues arising from the 2021 Economic and Fiscal Update to assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fait ressortir les faits saillants de la mise \u00e0 jour \u00e9conomique et budg\u00e9taire de 2021 pour aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"To promote fiscal transparency, the report recommends legislative amendments for Parliament to consider, such as moving the release date of the Public Accounts by three months to no later than September 30th.","fr":"Par souci de transparence budg\u00e9taire, le rapport recommande au Parlement d\u2019\u00e9tudier des modifications l\u00e9gislatives, visant notamment \u00e0 devancer la publication des Comptes publics de trois mois, soit au plus tard le 30 septembre."}},{"content":{"en":"The report shows that since the start of the pandemic, the Government has spent, or has planned to spend, $541.9 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The report estimates that remaining platform measures would amount to $48.5 billion in net new spending.","fr":"Les 71,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures dans la Mise \u00e0 jour du gouvernement s\u2019ajoutent en grande partie aux mesures incluses dans le programme \u00e9lectoral du Parti lib\u00e9ral du Canada pour 2021. Le rapport estime que les autres mesures de la plateforme s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8veraient \u00e0 48,5 milliards de dollars en nouvelles d\u00e9penses nettes."}},{"content":{"en":"Fiscal guardrail indicators in the Update have effectively returned to their pre-pandemic benchmarks. The report notes that the policy rationale for the additional spending initially presented as stimulus spending no longer exists.","fr":"Les indicateurs que sont les garde-fous budg\u00e9taires sont revenus \u00e0 leur niveau de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie. Le rapport note que les d\u00e9penses suppl\u00e9mentaires initialement pr\u00e9vues pour la relance \u00e9conomique ne sont plus n\u00e9cessaires."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122027S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and MacPhee, Sarah and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Update 2021: Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122027S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and MacPhee, Sarah and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Mise \\`{a} jour \\\u0027{e}conomique et budg\\\u0027{e}taire de 2021 : Enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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report updates PBO\u2019s February 2020 assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans. It incorporates federal and provincial budgetary measures up to 1 September and 30 October, respectively.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport actualise l\u2019\u00e9valuation qu\u2019a faite le DPB en f\u00e9vrier 2020 de la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re \u00e0 long terme du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, des administrations infranationales et des r\u00e9gimes de pensions publics. Il inclut des mesures financi\u00e8res f\u00e9d\u00e9rales et provinciales jusqu\u0027au 1er septembre et au 30 octobre, respectivement.","highlights":null},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2021033S,\n author={Bergeron, \\\u0027{E}tienne and MacPhee, Sarah and Busby, Carleigh and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={Fiscal Sustainability Report 2020: Update},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2021033S,\n author={Bergeron, \\\u0027{E}tienne and MacPhee, Sarah and Busby, Carleigh and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={Rapport sur la viabilit\\\u0027{e} financi\\`{e}re de 2020 : Mise \\`{a} jour},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2021-027-S","is_published":"2021-01-26T20:16:02.000000Z","release_date":"2020-09-29T04:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2021-01-26T20:16:02.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2021-027-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 September 2020","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Septembre 2020","slug":"RP-2021-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2020--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2020","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2021-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2020--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2020","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2021-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2020--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2020"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2021-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2020--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2020","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2021-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2020--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2020"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/8059b833d83a3c8eeef55a64fe8229d860c3224f72f87882e6a2689107db96cc"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/cd6fc56f52dd24674b4ab3b58ae193ae09c121ff716798c904497880793f7399"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/04e180f534ebbd5434b4e42b9a2abb17f894d5e6","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b6a33221f0a83495d2feb46766ae5edb21ea8074","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d39288ff1ddda4506695f5d5126064f69e4d9f4c","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dbdcd5ae9785d0ddd01c1e16fcdf7f232d726a6a","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8f1b138a0dce94f3cd943f8e2293440f7013a237","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2bfe982efaeae12fa678368aece1a937fd9b534f","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5ae5e0d6b7097c9bbd1458ee381f4136e63b022f","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/62d3dcfad42c3d5dfe148c03c2b5e5ded478982e"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7cf000de2c3d22e6e7337e14c748f647fef4a1c7","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7b5393d01473a0408e33e0308b25c2c6abf0b533","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a7a4169e3c04466fe0b0cb1020257445bc8e78db","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d827f5112f1ac0dbd1a570fab6bde1961088155d","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4db54f1a9d78884d78f03cb1fa830d4e8999bd7b","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ec39254e1a77524171d23106e02c78bf2f04c14c","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9fc986fe1074f04ce74ec1cb1c7c0def3cbab5ca","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e85080154ec3c0bc6a74d54788c5cb0dceb5018b"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings. **PBO\u2019s outlook is not a prediction of future economic and budgetary outcomes.**\n\nThis report incorporates announced federal budgetary measures up to and including 1 September 2020. Financial results for fiscal year 2019-20 shown in this report are PBO estimates and not final Public Accounts results.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport propose une pr\u00e9vision de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles. **Les perspectives du DPB ne constituent pas une pr\u00e9diction des r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers futurs.**\n\nCe rapport tient compte des mesures budg\u00e9taires f\u00e9d\u00e9rales annonc\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 1er septembre 2020 inclusivement. Les r\u00e9sultats financiers de l\u2019exercice 2019-2020 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s dans ce rapport sont des estimations du DPB et non les r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9finitifs des comptes publics.","highlights":null},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2021027S,\n author={Grinshpoon, Kristina and Scholz, Tim and Behrend, Robert and Bergeron, \\\u0027{E}tienne and Devakos, Tessa and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Forsyth, Jamie and Giswold, Jill and Liberge-Simard, Rapha\\\u0022{e}l and MacPhee, Sarah and Mohamed Ahmed, Salma and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra and Wodrich, Nigel},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - September 2020},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2021027S,\n author={Grinshpoon, Kristina and Scholz, Tim and Behrend, Robert and Bergeron, \\\u0027{E}tienne and Devakos, Tessa and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Forsyth, Jamie and Giswold, Jill and Liberge-Simard, Rapha\\\u0022{e}l and MacPhee, Sarah and Mohamed Ahmed, Salma and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra and Wodrich, Nigel},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Septembre 2020},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}