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Electric Vehicle Availability Standard: Potential Impacts on Ownership Costs and Charger Supply

Louis Perrault ; Tim Scholz
Published on August 29, 2024 PDF(opens a new window)

Under the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, manufacturers will be required to ensure light-duty fleet offerings consistent with a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market share of 20 per cent in 2026, 60 per cent in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2035. This report provides an analysis of how the relative ownership costs of ZEV and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, as well as the market provision of charging infrastructure, may need to adjust to meet the ZEV sales targets under the standard by 2030.

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Communications

Quote

  • Based on our modelling, significant adjustments to domestic market conditions are required to meet the annual ZEV sales targets. According to our estimates, in order to induce a change in consumer behaviour to reach the 2030 target, the relative cost of owning a ZEV compared to ICE vehicles will have to drop by 31% compared to its expected cost in 2030 without the standard.

Yves Giroux
Parliamentary Budget Officer

News Release

{"id":66,"created_at":"2024-08-29T07:26:41-04:00","updated_at":"2024-08-29T08:57:11-04:00","slug":"pbo-releases-analysis-of-canadas-electric-vehicle-availability-standard-le-dpb-publie-une-analyse-sur-la-norme-sur-la-disponibilite-des-vehicules-electriques-au-canada","title_en":"PBO Releases Analysis of Canada\u2019s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard","title_fr":"Le DPB publie une analyse sur la norme sur la disponibilit\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques au Canada","body_en":"The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) today released a report analyzing how the relative ownership costs of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will need to be adjusted to meet the ZEV sales targets set by Canada\u2019s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard by 2030.\n\nUnder this standard, released by Environment and Climate Change Canada in December 2023, ZEV sales targets are set at 20% in 2026, 60% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. \n\n\u201cBased on our modelling, significant adjustments to domestic market conditions are required to meet the annual ZEV sales targets,\u201d said PBO Yves Giroux. \u201cAccording to our estimates, in order to induce a change in consumer behaviour to reach the 2030 target, the relative cost of owning a ZEV compared to ICE vehicles will have to drop by 31% compared to its expected cost in 2030 without the standard.\u201d \n\nWe anticipate that achieving the ZEV sales targets will lead to an increase in public charging infrastructure, with an increase in Level 2 and Level 3 (fast) charging stations by 33,900 and 4,700 units respectively, compared to the levels expected in 2030 without the standard. However, this supply of public charging stations would be slightly below the estimated needs for 2030, according to a study commissioned by Natural Resources Canada.","body_fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) a publi\u00e9 aujourd\u2019hui un rapport qui analyse la mani\u00e8re dont les co\u00fbts de propri\u00e9t\u00e9 relatifs des v\u00e9hicules z\u00e9ro \u00e9mission (VZE) et des v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 moteur \u00e0 combustion interne devront \u00e9voluer pour atteindre les objectifs de vente de VZE pr\u00e9vus par la norme sur la disponibilit\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques au Canada, d\u0027ici \u00e0 2030. \n\nSelon cette norme, annonc\u00e9e par Environnement et Changement climatique Canada en d\u00e9cembre 2023, les objectifs de vente des VZE sont \u00e9tablis \u00e0 20 % en 2026, \u00e0 60 % en 2030 et \u00e0 100% en 2035. \n\n\u00ab Selon notre mod\u00e8le, des ajustements importants des conditions du march\u00e9 au pays seront n\u00e9cessaires pour atteindre les cibles annuelles de ventes de VZE \u00bb a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le DPB Yves Giroux. \u00ab D\u2019apr\u00e8s nos estimations, afin d\u0027induire un changement dans le comportement des consommateurs pour atteindre la cible de 2030, le co\u00fbt relatif de possession d\u2019un VZE comparativement aux v\u00e9hicules traditionnels devra diminuer de 31 % en comparaison \u00e0 son co\u00fbt attendu en 2030 sans la norme \u00bb.\n\nNous anticipons que l\u2019atteinte des objectifs de vente de VZE entra\u00eenera une augmentation du nombre de bornes de recharge publiques, soit une augmentation de bornes de recharge de niveau 2 et de niveau 3 (rapide) de 33 900 et 4 700 unit\u00e9s, respectivement, compar\u00e9 aux niveaux attendus en 2030 sans la norme. Cependant, cette offre de bornes de recharge publiques restera l\u00e9g\u00e8rement inf\u00e9rieure aux besoins estim\u00e9s pour 2030, selon une \u00e9tude command\u00e9e par Ressources naturelles Canada.","release_date":"2024-08-29T09:00:00-04:00","is_published":"2024-08-29T08:57:11-04:00","internal_id":"COM-2425-066","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/pbo-releases-analysis-of-canadas-electric-vehicle-availability-standard-le-dpb-publie-une-analyse-sur-la-norme-sur-la-disponibilite-des-vehicules-electriques-au-canada"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/blog\/news-releases--communiques-de-presse\/pbo-releases-analysis-of-canadas-electric-vehicle-availability-standard-le-dpb-publie-une-analyse-sur-la-norme-sur-la-disponibilite-des-vehicules-electriques-au-canada"}},"pivot":{"publication_id":814,"news_release_id":66}}