[{"label":"Home","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en"},{"label":"Team","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}},{"label":"Jason Stanton","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe\/jason-stanton","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}}]

Jason Stanton

Advisor-Analyst

Jason Stanton is an Advisor-Analyst with the OPBO. Prior to joining the Office, Jason worked as an analyst at the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat in the Expenditure Management Sector.

Jason has a Bachelor degree in International Business from Carleton University and is a CFA® charterholder.

Latest publications

    {"id":"RP-2425-002-S","is_published":"2024-04-30T12:57:10.000000Z","release_date":"2024-04-30T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-04-30T12:57:10.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2425-002-S","title_en":"Budget 2024: Issues for Parliamentarians","title_fr":"Budget de 2024 : enjeux pour les parlementaires","slug":"RP-2425-002-S--budget-2024-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2024-enjeux-parlementaires","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-002-S--budget-2024-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2024-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-002-S--budget-2024-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2024-enjeux-parlementaires"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-002-S--budget-2024-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2024-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-002-S--budget-2024-issues-parliamentarians--budget-2024-enjeux-parlementaires"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/277d778c7088ba1a197109b6c1a2b75002edeb736ffe2c5359352ed208673164"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b6f1d42a3c13b6a620e703b2f6f136b2e9be2638d3dc5bc341222e8d019b172"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cd87bca3054abbe08b3f1f79fa1aef08aed381dc7bd7d44bfa692c7d1449e350","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3a2693035543861abcf39057ade6aeea18126112ca9044d93f4b21b353a757a8","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/11640a318b37ba7850b781478730da63e2b9b2166074d053740df2f7ff22d8c3","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d0d2cc7a53a8e955c03acabed2bc5eb4a35c3ee8553a840586a9dc7a972e6861","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/965bddbce3fc3e44472591d952ab4a498333d61ba27455c5f75bb3790c4c50bf","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4317fca74cbc801de3a3b1de250dd6dd19daff0ec14a45c12264df4b35a7c387","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ed608b045567e90194db2974f783fb2d7a6ccc4274ffc98bde18624fe86d4a54","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0f1c1749e2fcc6bd67ffa4d6d54ef841616bc98f67772c4a57b0ae6996806b2b"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/01541eb61eb5f06f50ce7fca0d7c5ce2728c657e67a2212c4de4c0475af4f15f","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3c2867a024257d3fa42c1348d1032d6811fed06a88f82e4e5f4faf3f895585fb","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2c2a77c81bcf52c8f8bdf477bbca744cad517343eb9aa6bfafb2e5e00bed4567","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9a554ff15d405b1028796dda0582b2f2799c0861cc61442f339affc3a4a3b2c7","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c50b9edfe9e39c41d90dc955e9bad6912cf9b090cb58152955869ade2403d66e","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0a30d6f7b8b802d6d5415d7a69c7ff3843f455af11925e42042ff6ca35769056","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7d68f823a8cc2fd20482657014ea550109167eb7a0b8e7b22571ab63a3bb4580","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3aaab41151e459aa1bc2abe5114e4b688250189e258fd2c493cbecc29b4f0dc0"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2024.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport attire l\u2019attention sur les principales consid\u00e9rations que suscite le budget de 2024 dans le but d\u2019aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"In Budget 2024, the Government announced $61.2 billion in new spending that was partially offset by $21.9 billion in revenue-raising measures. On a net basis, the new measures reduce the budgetary balance by $39.3 billion over 2023-24 to 2028-29.","fr":"Dans le budget de 2024, le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 61,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles d\u00e9penses qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 partiellement compens\u00e9es par 21,9 milliards de dollars en mesure d\u2019accroissement des recettes. Sur une base nette, les nouvelles mesures r\u00e9duisent le solde budg\u00e9taire de 39,3 milliards de dollars entre 2023-2024 et 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"Budget 2024 marks the third consecutive fiscal plan in which the Government\u2019s new measures\u2014even after accounting for revenue-raising and spending reviews\u2014have exceeded the incremental \u201cfiscal room\u201d resulting from economic and fiscal developments. Indeed, the $39.3 billion in (net) new measures announced in Budget 2024 more than exhaust the $29.1 billion in new fiscal room over 2023-24 to 2028-29.","fr":"Le budget de 2024 est le troisi\u00e8me plan financier cons\u00e9cutif dans lequel les nouvelles mesures du gouvernement, m\u00eame apr\u00e8s la prise en compte des examens d\u2019accroissement des recettes et des d\u00e9penses, ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 la marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re suppl\u00e9mentaire d\u00e9coulant de l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation \u00e9conomique et financi\u00e8re. En effet, les 39,3 milliards de dollars (nets) de nouvelles mesures annonc\u00e9es dans le budget de 2024 ont plus qu\u2019\u00e9puis\u00e9 les 29,1 milliards de dollars de nouvelle marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re pour 2023-2024 \u00e0 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"Budget 2024 indicates that the Government will attempt to achieve the savings announced in the 2023 Fall Economic Statement mostly through natural attrition in the federal public service. This planned reduction would represent a shift in the trend increase in the size of the federal public service in recent years. It is also unclear how new measures announced in Budget 2024 will impact planned full-time equivalents over the medium term.","fr":"Le budget de 2024 indique que le gouvernement tentera de r\u00e9aliser les \u00e9conomies annonc\u00e9es dans l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2023, principalement par la r\u00e9duction naturelle des effectifs dans la fonction publique f\u00e9d\u00e9rale. Cette r\u00e9duction pr\u00e9vue repr\u00e9senterait un changement de tendance dans l\u2019augmentation de la taille de la fonction publique f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. On ne sait pas non plus quelle incidence les nouvelles mesures annonc\u00e9es dans le budget de 2024 auront sur les \u00e9quivalents temps plein pr\u00e9vus \u00e0 moyen terme."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government also announced in Budget 2023 and the 2023 Fall Economic Statement its intention to reallocate previously announced spending that has yet to occur. While some information has been provided in the Estimates, it remains difficult to track the overall plans, progress, and results of these measures as there is no central tracking document which is publicly available.","fr":"Le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 dans le budget de 2023 et dans l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2023 son intention de r\u00e9affecter les d\u00e9penses annonc\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment qui n\u2019ont pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9 engag\u00e9es. Bien que certains renseignements aient \u00e9t\u00e9 fournis dans le budget des d\u00e9penses, il demeure difficile de suivre l\u2019ensemble des plans, des progr\u00e8s et des r\u00e9sultats de ces mesures, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 qu\u2019aucun document de suivi central n\u2019est publiquement disponible."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425002S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Budget 2024: Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425002S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Budget de 2024 : enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-027-S","is_published":"2024-03-05T13:57:09.000000Z","release_date":"2024-03-05T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-03-05T13:57:09.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-027-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2014 March 2024","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2014 Mars 2024","slug":"RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/592b2821b72a722d94c7e2ec550869247372b74075bbba84f38f09c8b398fce9"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c4cdb97a9afd883daa9e3d3e5391752c1a3def1a44039e6ae978ac84625ab38"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06095f19ca30d6fc8a62e52d7c5a64f0b9c5aa6910c3c18996b34405155b6077","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/193cee6e59ff94014ee8cde3ef61c938752076572e540ed663955de3dd4d4253","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/333d8b06ff001133abd4a56b5d354ce264bb556a0084a4f3920ee4eff8d9489c","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ccdbba14afda98a8df3c8e1228b3605e6aa2c8b67096d0e2919fd593a7535eab","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2a83fb90de2a7d96a541a581e66b63da3d200e81f92b280d7e66a73ce06ab7ea","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2634b3c2c427a0819236effc902f3b958ea661c6d9bdf202154e68a836e7f7f5","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3076bacb621066bf6486b3c84dfce44e410ccf761d848121d3983861487a7744","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/57aee2ca666b3496b4b887b4b6b374f872c8c6aabe9241457dbdab9ccca1372e"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/90f20a17fafa029f686260ced14140337e6f2188e8b1f3599b30eaf25ca5906d","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7bc398e2aac825d14c45c527125d0cbfa48fe76dd9ea7263985db5829b94e8c","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/47329158fe8dc39c56ae28a48ce0a82834432f9f7951cf313c1b33f030b21b8f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5dbaa3fe6b3a25c0c1f221ed7b11ef344a2c3e9690ef34db402122a50ff7a5f9","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/07544b6965ecbc93e866d9f5a34d45c70a4fe919ce66bbca45aae402b6a4b775","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f445fff1f4395e5a7bc05d3de9a0e4e4646d059d2a37f8d2c3956b3f773efc1c","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cc356e5be4e13ddaabf1c4d9a171b8407b4324294f84713134e868c1c8ef09d1","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6170b6fec1a23dedf88a5b804769aac1fae2ac0ec854b39e516b78aed786e9f6"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une projection de base pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires potentiels dans le contexte actuel des politiques.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) projects growth in the Canadian economy to remain sluggish through 2024. Restrictive monetary policy is expected to restrain growth in consumer spending in the first half of the year and to dampen residential investment over the course of this year. Inventory investment is projected to subtract from growth as businesses pullback on their stock building.","fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne demeure l\u00e9thargique tout au long de 2024. La politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive devrait limiter la croissance des d\u00e9penses de consommation au cours de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et freiner l\u2019investissement r\u00e9sidentiel tout au long de celle-ci. L\u2019investissement en stocks devrait freiner la croissance \u00e0 mesure que les entreprises reculent dans la constitution de leurs stocks."}},{"content":{"en":"As excess supply in the economy increases and commodity prices continue to weaken, PBO projects that Consumer price index (CPI) inflation will return to its 2 per cent target by the end of 2024. With CPI inflation on track to return to target later this year, we continue to expect the Bank of Canada to start lowering its policy rate in April.","fr":"Avec l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie et la baisse des prix des produits de base, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019inflation de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) reviendra \u00e0 sa cible de 2 % d\u2019ici la fin de 2024. L\u2019inflation de l\u2019IPC \u00e9tant en bonne voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible plus tard cette ann\u00e9e, nous nous attendons toujours \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada commence \u00e0 baisser son taux directeur en avril."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to rise to $46.8 billion (1.6 per cent of the Gross domestic product (GDP)) in 2023-24 from the $35.3 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) deficit recorded in 2022\u201123. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $16.9 billion (0.5 per cent of GDP) in 2028-29.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire augmente \u00e0 46,8 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB)) en 2023-2024 par rapport au d\u00e9ficit de 35,3 milliards de dollars (1,3 % du PIB) enregistr\u00e9 en 2022-2023. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 16,9 milliards de dollars (0,5 % du PIB) en 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to increase from its 2022-23 level of 41.7 per cent, reaching 42.4 per cent in 2023\u201124 and 42.5 per cent in 2024\u201125. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.2 per cent in 2028\u201129 but remain well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019\u201120.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB augmente par rapport \u00e0 son niveau de 41,7 % en 2022-2023 pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 42,4 % en 2023-2024 et 42,5 % en 2024-2025. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,2 % en 2028\u20112029, mais rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) to rise from 7.8 per cent in 2022\u201123 to 10.2 per cent in 2023\u201124. As the effective interest rate on debt edges higher in 2024\u201125, we project the debt service ratio to increase further and average 10.7 per cent through 2028\u201129\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les frais de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes totales) augmente, passant de 7,8 % en 2022-2023 \u00e0 10,2 % en 2023-2024. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat effectif sur la dette sera plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en 2024-2025, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que le ratio du service de la dette augmente encore et s\u2019\u00e9tablisse \u00e0 10,7 % en moyenne jusqu\u2019en 2028-2029, bien au-dessus du niveau plancher pr\u00e9pand\u00e9mique de 7,0 % en 2018-2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324027S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook \\textemdash March 2024},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324027S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res \\textemdash Mars 2024},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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response to a request by the Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates, this report provides an overview of the $500 million in announced reductions in spending on consulting, professional services and travel for 2023-24 proposed in Budget 2023.","abstract_fr":"En r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 une demande du Comit\u00e9 permanent des op\u00e9rations gouvernementales et des pr\u00e9visions budg\u00e9taires, le pr\u00e9sent rapport donne un aper\u00e7u des r\u00e9ductions de d\u00e9penses de 500 millions de dollars en services d\u2019experts-conseils, services professionnels et d\u00e9placements en 2023-2024 annonc\u00e9es dans le budget de 2023.","highlights":[]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324024C,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Refocusing Government Spending in 2023-24},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324024C,\n 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assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from the 2023 Fall Economic Statement.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fait ressortir les faits saillants de l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2023 pour aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Revisions to the private sector economic outlook and fiscal developments in the Fall Economic Statement lower the outlook for the budgetary balance by $18.7 billion (or $3.7 billion per year, on average) over 2023-24 to 2027 28 relative to Budget 2023.","fr":"Les r\u00e9visions apport\u00e9es aux perspectives \u00e9conomiques du secteur priv\u00e9 et l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation financi\u00e8re dans l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne donnent lieu \u00e0 des perspectives inf\u00e9rieures pour le solde budg\u00e9taire de 18,7 milliards de dollars (ou 3,7 milliards de dollars par ann\u00e9e, en moyenne) de 2023-2024 \u00e0 2027 2028 par rapport au budget de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government announced $23.6 billion in new spending that was partially offset by $2.9 billion in \u201crefocusing and reallocation\u201d spending measures. On a net basis, new measures further reduce the budgetary balance by $20.7 billion (or $3.4 billion per year, on average) over 2023-24 to 2028-29.","fr":"Le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 23,6 milliards de dollars de nouvelles d\u00e9penses, partiellement compens\u00e9es par 2,9 milliards de dollars de mesures consistant \u00e0 \u00ab\u2009recentrer et \u00e0 r\u00e9affecter\u2009\u00bb les d\u00e9penses. Sur une base nette, les nouvelles mesures r\u00e9duisent le solde budg\u00e9taire de 20,7 milliards de dollars (ou 3,4 milliards de dollars par ann\u00e9e, en moyenne) de 2023-2024 \u00e0 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"The Fall Economic Statement expands on the Budget 2023 commitment to refocus government spending, with the goal to identify an additional $2.4 billion in savings over 2025-26 to 2028-29. In addition, the Government intends to reallocate $0.5 billion in originally planned spending.","fr":"L\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne d\u00e9veloppe l\u2019engagement pris dans le budget de 2023 de recentrer les d\u00e9penses publiques, avec l\u2019objectif de d\u00e9gager 2,4 milliards de dollars d\u2019\u00e9conomies suppl\u00e9mentaires sur la p\u00e9riode de 2025-2026 \u00e0 2028-2029. De plus, le gouvernement a l\u2019intention de r\u00e9affecter 0,5 milliard de dollars de d\u00e9penses initialement pr\u00e9vues."}},{"content":{"en":"There is currently little information available on the status of $15.4 billion in Budget 2023 spending reviews and the additional $2.4 billion in savings announced in the Fall Economic Statement. Further, there is currently no publicly available information related to the $3.6 billion in spending to be reallocated in 2023-24.","fr":"Peu de renseignements sont actuellement disponibles sur l\u2019\u00e9tat des 15,4 milliards de dollars concernant les examens des d\u00e9penses pr\u00e9vus dans le budget de 2023 et des 2,4 milliards de dollars en \u00e9conomies suppl\u00e9mentaires annonc\u00e9es dans l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne. En outre, il n\u2019existe actuellement aucun renseignement public li\u00e9 aux 3,6 milliards de dollars de d\u00e9penses qui seront r\u00e9affect\u00e9s en 2023-2024."}},{"content":{"en":"Since Budget 2021, the Government has projected a total of $212.8 billion in new fiscal room. Essentially all of this fiscal room has now been exhausted through increased spending (on a net basis), with only $0.5 billion used to reduce the deficit (on a cumulative basis). Of the $212.8 billion in new fiscal room, $188.8 billion (89 per cent) has been used to finance new non-COVID 19 measures over 2021-22 to 2028-29.","fr":"Depuis le budget de 2021, le gouvernement a projet\u00e9 une nouvelle marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re totale de 212,8 milliards de dollars. Pratiquement toute cette marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9puis\u00e9e sous l\u2019effet de l\u2019augmentation des d\u00e9penses (sur une base nette); seulement 0,5 milliard de dollars ont \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9s pour r\u00e9duire le d\u00e9ficit (sur une base cumulative). Des 212,8 milliards de dollars de nouvelle marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re, 188,8 milliards (89 %) ont \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9s pour financer de nouvelles mesures non li\u00e9es \u00e0 la COVID 19 sur la p\u00e9riode de 2021-2022 \u00e0 2028-2029."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324022S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Fall Economic Statement 2023: Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324022S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={\\\u0027{E}nonc\\\u0027{e} \\\u0027{e}conomique de l\u2019automne 2023 \\textemdash Enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Following the contraction in real GDP in the second quarter, PBO projects the Canadian economy to stagnate in the second half of 2023. As the Bank of Canada maintains its restrictive monetary policy to restore price stability, we project that consumer spending will remain weak in the second half of this year and the first half of 2024.","fr":"Apr\u00e8s la contraction du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne stagnera au cours du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2023. Alors que la Banque du Canada maintient sa politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive afin de r\u00e9tablir la stabilit\u00e9 des prix, nous pr\u00e9voyons que les d\u00e9penses de consommation demeureront faibles au cours du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de cette ann\u00e9e et de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the Bank of Canada to hold the policy interest rate at 5 per cent through the first quarter of 2024. With CPI inflation on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we then expect the Bank to start lowering its policy rate in April 2024.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada maintienne le taux directeur \u00e0 5 % jusqu\u2019au premier trimestre de 2024. L\u2019inflation de l\u2019IPC \u00e9tant en bonne voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque commencera \u00e0 abaisser son taux directeur en avril 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"For the current fiscal year, 2023-24, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to rise to $46.5 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP). Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $8.2 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in 2028-29.","fr":"Pour l\u2019exercice financier en cours, soit 2023-2024, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire atteindra 46,5 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du PIB). En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 8,2 milliards de dollars (0,2 % du PIB) en 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 42.6 per cent in 2023 24. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 37.8 per cent in 2028-29 but remain above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit une augmentation du ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB de 42,6 % en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 37,8 % en 2028 2029, mais rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019 2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to tax revenues) under status quo policy will peak at 12.0 per cent in 2023-24 and then decline gradually to 11.0 per cent in 2028-29\u2014well above its pre-pandemic low of 8.3 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB projette que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les charges de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes fiscales), selon une politique de statu quo, culminera \u00e0 12,0 % en 2023 2024, puis diminuera progressivement pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 11,0 % en 2028 2029, soit bien au-dessus de son niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie, \u00e0 savoir 8,3 % en 2018 2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324017S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324017S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - octobre 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-013-M","is_published":"2023-09-15T12:57:06.000000Z","release_date":"2023-09-15T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-09-20T14:14:35.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-013-M","title_en":"Overview of the Government\u2019s Digital Service Transformation","title_fr":"Aper\u00e7u de la transformation num\u00e9rique des services gouvernementaux","slug":"RP-2324-013-M--overview-government-digital-service-transformation--apercu-transformation-numerique-services-gouvernementaux","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-013-M--overview-government-digital-service-transformation--apercu-transformation-numerique-services-gouvernementaux","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-013-M--overview-government-digital-service-transformation--apercu-transformation-numerique-services-gouvernementaux"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-013-M--overview-government-digital-service-transformation--apercu-transformation-numerique-services-gouvernementaux","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-013-M--overview-government-digital-service-transformation--apercu-transformation-numerique-services-gouvernementaux"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/0bb560a836b8ea85a16c69ef20a3e87d3ade88e785cac9c73b18e29213f827a1"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/faaea5e5a5d1a7dbb6da514551ad0959e815029547a26ab7fd4bfbc97cc72401"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dca176c5965411bc9691f3ca36c4ec4d492126c79507d3a903b844a88f559822","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ce08b6d0cec12ebf9583fda89dfeb946f8d7786e7f4635f53b02bce5d9a15dee","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/14aafaf6187e9649944f31af515ef004c8080b2e08aebff4b974e055ffcb88be","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/517b62fa3ac0b0de7e66a0cfc22230dc973781f6ca62805395525fd964c01f17","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3d08127c665b7e5474ef901c8e13b8d69fb9ebd29ca74864b4d73b46eaad005e","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8bf6bb2547c360e63093dc7f375850441f9f95f33ea204b467db67595ab3c46c","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6316ef21f7ae99a0ffc44033391c0afde41fa843d0a62360ae88471c13ec4af4","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4631232a9f08b2728dd00e727f7a968bd46b77a3d0456ee8039a396a0df82bbc"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/620caaf649c98d129538302a217db8404d49bddc1b1bd4b2360412649dfda441","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fed55597b47a582a92879d92f0bdb8f9c58a01733e46d5a28d31bfb74915a3e4","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/188368614671a4ce08287d78923add7f08cbcabc10629bc228cb211424e6ff16","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7f3589b6b9cef33030901ce7f9e2c1451b0558c8b4908a911204267713550d66","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fff50056f114479fee9908acfda6ff3d1bad1751387e3b57752fe09b52dc1a55","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/568f69a1f614c40bf1f7d0f2a2a5731c7618c3a657e16e6cc791f7cffe453524","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/973afd724c489ae47656ec99460aca7d72f64663d067ca9e87e86eb36aec86af","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/10e4846fb45882add51b6bd66bd15cc0049ae24eb1e87160331f891cd899416b"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report is in response to a request by Senator Colin Deacon to estimate the financial cost of Motion No. 107 \u2013 That the Senate call on the Government of Canada to replace its outdated program delivery and information technology systems by urgently accelerating the implementation of user-friendly, digital solutions that transform the public service delivery experience of Canadians, and ultimately reduces the cost of program delivery.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fait suite \u00e0 la demande du s\u00e9nateur Colin Deacon qui souhaitait obtenir une estimation du co\u00fbt financier de la motion no 107 \u2013 Que le S\u00e9nat demande au gouvernement du Canada de remplacer ses syst\u00e8mes de prestation de programmes et de technologie de l\u2019information d\u00e9suets en acc\u00e9l\u00e9rant, de toute urgence, la mise en \u0153uvre des solutions num\u00e9riques ax\u00e9es sur les usagers qui transforment l\u2019exp\u00e9rience des Canadiens en mati\u00e8re de prestation des services publics et, en fin de compte, r\u00e9duisent le co\u00fbt de la prestation des programmes.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Given the scope of the motion, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) has narrowed the focus of the report to highlight some of the key areas where the Government has made investments in digitizing services.","fr":"\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 la port\u00e9e de la motion, le directeur parlementaire du budget (le DPB) a cibl\u00e9 le rapport de mani\u00e8re \u00e0 souligner quelques-uns des principaux domaines o\u00f9 le gouvernement a investi dans la num\u00e9risation des services."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324013M,\n author={Stanton, Jason},\n title={Overview of the Government\u2019s Digital Service Transformation},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324013M,\n author={Stanton, Jason},\n title={Aper\\c{c}u de la transformation num\\\u0027{e}rique des services gouvernementaux},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-008-S","is_published":"2023-06-14T12:27:03.000000Z","release_date":"2023-06-14T12:30:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-06-14T12:27:03.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-008-S","title_en":"Fiscal Analysis of Canada\u2019s Support for Volkswagen\u2019s Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing Plant","title_fr":"Analyse financi\u00e8re du soutien du Canada \u00e0 la construction de l\u2019usine de fabrication de batteries pour v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques de Volkswagen","slug":"RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/a3c5d4d96c20f870bb387b5acc23cef9aaffa368c8a7f704d6aff1f7a81fced1"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/edf2a11c09fe6cf48871e0c3396e1e16b0d8e5bc0cf0b02a793a67f869e18aa4"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cf7a2a6ab7b7654f82939649c7947cb654cebc2fa2ac07eb683e50a814ef10e1","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3506cc4bfabeb05cef520a1426e14486c6706825cd73bbadc7c4fc602102ee71","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6ac12dd95d3a5811d4eee50eb19dc745050b7f15116b0cd68c595a5ea640d089","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/475548b5c45a574e2c86f7af9211562384d26b787d202572b0395ce4c6e4bd4c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/81721d6f5f470082b61e900fcc23cb9880c3adb743b5bbf3352a284adeee062a","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/21af4280a5a9357addaa0c47da5fcafe3dffc68dc2f8fe33cc53d4c4a2a28dca","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c1fcf55f7b988f2a6a5025c0e02e2dfa7449ae48c6c402e18985df570252cdce","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d47cbd2b5fb693f3ee54cd30e2d09c41c878204687bc0c5b145ff3d77e2544ff"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4bf054e2367ba7376be9b80130b94096a4994d267e4abd1249e59ed65fd92bff","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f14488407d30a33eab6de2a3813e142bf47bcb35e87d1178a978ef4e443816e8","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fb90b472be5a233ddbcbd05f19955d29e0a694de5b678701b94875f0d69d0552","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f2b883881916e91962325d7986fed2a919b123c5564623598b46a41bc985f74c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/069d2cdab81f32d51dcf659b35ee3c19e21f836fa9e6d4e607a16b73a4867489","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/38fc1724c66539af02bc53e70ac35422fcc1a2586ea4ecb943cb5c66f2a61b96","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/09e21417e79a7008c6c5039c0ccfe1ccb4390ecabf74d3672c9bb9ae4962c76d","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1a9a000087d517f09c75e87554212af83e2fa41128087dc2c9db6e8ee46d996e"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"In response to interest from several Members of Parliament, this report provides a static cost estimate of the entirety of the Government of Canada\u2019s funding support for Volkswagen\u2019s electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant, as well as the economic and budgetary impacts of the plant\u2019s construction.","abstract_fr":"Afin de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat exprim\u00e9 par plusieurs d\u00e9put\u00e9s, le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une estimation statique des co\u00fbts de l\u2019ensemble du soutien financier apport\u00e9 par le gouvernement du Canada \u00e0 l\u2019usine de Volkswagen d\u00e9di\u00e9e \u00e0 la fabrication de batteries de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, ainsi que des r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires de cette construction.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The PBO estimates that the government will need to pay Volkswagen up to $16.3 billion over the period of the agreement.","fr":"Le DPB estime que le gouvernement devra verser \u00e0 Volkswagen jusqu\u0027\u00e0 16,3 milliards de dollars pendant la p\u00e9riode vis\u00e9e par l\u2019accord."}},{"content":{"en":"This report only examines the economic impact of the new facility\u2019s construction, which is marginal. We estimate that construction of the plant would increase real GDP by 0.01 per cent above its baseline projection by the end of 2027 and increase the level of employment by 1,400 jobs by that same time.","fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport n\u2019examine que les retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques de la construction de cette usine. Ces retomb\u00e9es sont marginales. Nous estimons que la construction de l\u2019usine augmenterait le PIB r\u00e9el de 0,01 % par rapport \u00e0 la projection de base d\u2019ici la fin de 2027 de m\u00eame que le niveau d\u2019emploi, avec 1 400 nouveaux postes d\u2019ici la m\u00eame \u00e9ch\u00e9ance."}},{"content":{"en":"The net budgetary impact of the plant\u2019s construction is expected to be approximately equal to the government\u2019s $0.7 billion contribution.","fr":"L\u2019incidence budg\u00e9taire nette de la construction de l\u2019usine devrait \u00eatre approximativement \u00e9gale \u00e0 la contribution du gouvernement (0,7 milliard de dollars)."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO continues to examine the government\u2019s support and will undertake an economic and fiscal analysis of the production support over the coming months.","fr":"Le DPB continue d\u2019examiner le soutien du gouvernement et entreprendra une analyse \u00e9conomique et financi\u00e8re du soutien \u00e0 la production au cours des prochains mois."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324008S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Fiscal Analysis of Canada\u2019s Support for Volkswagen\u2019s Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing Plant},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324008S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Analyse financi\\`{e}re du soutien du Canada \\`{a} la construction de l\u2019usine de fabrication de batteries pour v\\\u0027{e}hicules \\\u0027{e}lectriques de Volkswagen},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-025-S","is_published":"2023-03-02T13:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2023-03-02T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-03-02T13:57:04.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-025-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2014 March 2023","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2014 Mars 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report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Following a stronger-than-expected performance in the second half of 2022, PBO projects the Canadian economy to stagnate through 2023. As the tightening of monetary policy takes hold, we expect a further decline in residential investment and weakness in consumer spending in the first half of this year.","fr":"Apr\u00e8s que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne ait affich\u00e9 une performance plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu lors du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de 2022, le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle stagne jusqu\u2019en 2023. \u00c0 mesure que le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire se concr\u00e9tise, nous pr\u00e9voyons de nouvelle baisse de l\u2019investissement r\u00e9sidentiel et une faiblesse des d\u00e9penses de consommation au cours de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the Bank of Canada to maintain its \u201cpause\u201d, holding the policy interest rate at 4.5 per cent, through December of this year. With CPI inflation solidly on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we then expect the Bank to start lowering its policy rate in January 2024, returning the rate to its estimated neutral level of 2.5 per cent in December 2024.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada observe sa \u00ab\u2009pause\u2009\u00bb, en maintenant le taux directeur \u00e0 4,5 % jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin du mois de d\u00e9cembre de cette ann\u00e9e. Puisque l\u2019inflation de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) est en voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque commencera \u00e0 r\u00e9duire son taux directeur en janvier 2024, puis le ram\u00e8nera \u00e0 son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 de 2,5 % en d\u00e9cembre 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"For the current fiscal year, 2022-23, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to be $36.5 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to increase to $43.1 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) in 2023-24 before resuming its downward trajectory, falling to $8.7 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP) in 2027-28.","fr":"Pour l\u2019exercice en cours de 2022-2023, le DPB pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 36,5 milliards de dollars (1,3 % du PIB) selon une politique de statu quo. En supposant qu\u2019il n\u2019y ait pas de nouvelles mesures et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit devrait augmenter \u00e0 43,1 milliards de dollars (1,5 % du PIB) en 2023-2024 avant de reprendre sa trajectoire descendante, chutant \u00e0 8,7 milliards de dollars (0,3 % du PIB) en 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Under status quo policy, PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to decline to 41.8 per cent in 2022-23 and then to temporarily rise to 42.2 per cent in 2023-24. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 38.1 per cent in 2027-28 but remain above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Selon une politique de statu quo, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB diminuera \u00e0 41,8 % en 2022-2023, puis qu\u2019il remontera temporairement \u00e0 42,2 % en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait diminuer \u00e0 38,1 % en 2027-2028. Cependant, il devrait rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau pr\u00e9-pand\u00e9mique, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to tax revenues) under status quo policy will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2023-24 and then decline gradually to 10.3 per cent in 2027-28\u2014two percentage points above its pre-pandemic low of 8.3 per cent in 2018 19.","fr":"Le DPB projette que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les charges de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes fiscales) culminera \u00e0 11,5 % en 2023-2024 selon une politique de statu quo. Ensuite, il diminuera progressivement pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 10,3 % en 2027-2028, soit deux points de pourcentage de plus que le niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie, \u00e0 savoir 8,3 % en 2018 2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223025S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook \\textemdash March 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223025S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res \\textemdash Mars 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-021-S","is_published":"2022-11-15T13:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2022-11-15T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-11-15T17:28:25.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-021-S","title_en":"Fall Economic Statement 2022 \u2014 Issues for Parliamentarians","title_fr":"\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2022 \u2014 Enjeux pour les parlementaires","slug":"RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-021-S--fall-economic-statement-2022-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-2022-enjeux-parlementaires"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4d3511f67746dce4f575f967ee8300b2d9cd5334ae13ed55e4eec7009a409a66"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/18fee0a19a3363e2df4f588d58c5800d850ea2b5ff6a13341ea952bcb356c0a6"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2ef05a2feca09a7d439acf30f5d960ab3f667686bd999604f4ead34858a15e1e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/52ac960b005b2dca366eefa3da5717ea0735d3d8281765b6c436841db35cd95b","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/83f40ec12cda12d943c8fcf2bbbf9057b87e955eb65d7d180ed66e997128f672","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/54763575707b0ab63a3523ad7c4bc2c2d964714b8d6d44b718627e936933765c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6a9aa78ef6b5c383e1ba589531ffd5d134892bb26b8b7dfdda13f860ca5371dc","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c5cb4d4f38eab62f1ef4eb4006843f0063dc0d42c0f1fa1d08415329e5dd72b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f4d4f67f9d9e912e802043a8d237f32e0f5f897a4a5568b6963398a3ca49eb60","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6070a7f54a4bd53c1e4686cb24c6d36401bceaa7fe26dbe711a2444caebe51a6"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a71b7ecc8c0ad9d09fa3bbdab8f3db2795c35b17b519fa72ec95c766819e096c","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/574170f474850b71fec0bbe8c12810f6bad6c2f32822d87068616664cd21d35f","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/15776af5d18c4a584eb2f78773b39f888ef73051601ddb39b4c1694ff0c45b11","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9e7f044d5da24b4eb02a54ea9a0635901ecbac64d3605fb6123a7648a3e96a0d","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3513a66f9fd1075187415f3ffb855ad251d31149740e833f00eb3741a5260cb9","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9a1d3fe894596f0c05961899b5f0275d0087e91d1ededaf0eb0a9c374e6cd7b6","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4170ef8df446310c20be3c30272b2d7b438d431d2c43fee8e0fa84fa15914206","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/42fa837fa136b4b069aacf50798eb32206a9c2a6ec435e4610df2dd94b7a0ad1"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from the 2022 Fall Economic Statement.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fait ressortir les faits saillants de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2022* pour aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Revisions to the private sector economic outlook and fiscal developments in the Fall Economic Statement provide a total of $81.2 billion in new \u201cfiscal room\u201d, which finances $52.2 billion in (net) new measures over 2022-23 to 2027-28.","fr":"Les r\u00e9visions apport\u00e9es aux perspectives \u00e9conomiques du secteur priv\u00e9 et \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution budg\u00e9taire dans l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne* procurent une nouvelle \u00ab marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re \u00bb de 81,2 milliards de dollars, ce qui permet de financer 52,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures (nettes) de 2022-2023 \u00e0 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Over 40 per cent ($21.6 billion) of new measures are \u201coff-cycle\u201d in nature, that is, they preceded the $30.6 billion in new spending identified as Fall Economic Statement measures.","fr":"Plus de 40 % (21,6 milliards de dollars) des nouvelles mesures sont de nature \u00ab hors cycle \u00bb, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire qu\u2019elles ont pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 les 30,6 milliards de dollars de nouvelles d\u00e9penses d\u00e9sign\u00e9es comme \u00e9tant des mesures de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne*."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government highlighted that it exceeded its first spending review target of $3.0 billion by achieving savings of $3.8 billion from lower-than-anticipated spending on certain COVID 19 support measures in the previous fiscal year, 2021-22. However, the source of this savings is inconsistent with the intention and timing that was announced in Budget 2022.","fr":"Le gouvernement a soulign\u00e9 qu\u2019il avait d\u00e9pass\u00e9 sa premi\u00e8re cible d\u2019examen des d\u00e9penses de 3,0 milliards de dollars en r\u00e9alisant des \u00e9conomies de 3,8 milliards de dollars gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des d\u00e9penses moins \u00e9lev\u00e9es que pr\u00e9vu pour certaines mesures de soutien li\u00e9es \u00e0 la COVID-19 au cours de l\u2019exercice pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, soit 2021-2022. Toutefois, la source de ces \u00e9conomies n\u2019est pas conforme \u00e0 l\u2019intention et au calendrier annonc\u00e9s dans le budget de 2022."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government identified $14.2 billion in new measures without providing specific details on this spending. This spending represents 27 per cent of all new measures ($52.2 billion) in the Fall Economic Statement. This lack of transparency presents challenges for parliamentarians and the public in scrutinizing the Government\u2019s spending plans.","fr":"Le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 14,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures sans fournir de d\u00e9tails sur ces d\u00e9penses. Ces d\u00e9penses repr\u00e9sentent 27 % de toutes les nouvelles mesures (52,2 milliards de dollars) de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne*. Ce manque de transparence pr\u00e9sente des d\u00e9fis pour les parlementaires et les membres du public au cours de l\u2019examen des plans de d\u00e9penses du gouvernement."}},{"content":{"en":"This year the Public Accounts were tabled on October 27\u2014seven months after the close of the fiscal year. Canada continues to fall short of the standard for advanced practice in the International Monetary Fund\u2019s financial reporting guidelines, which recommends that governments publish their annual financial statements within six months.","fr":"Cette ann\u00e9e, les Comptes publics ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9pos\u00e9s le 27 octobre \u2014 sept mois apr\u00e8s la cl\u00f4ture de l\u2019exercice. Le Canada ne respecte toujours pas la norme de pratique avanc\u00e9e des lignes directrices du Fonds mon\u00e9taire international en mati\u00e8re de rapports financiers, o\u00f9 il est recommand\u00e9 aux gouvernements de publier leurs \u00e9tats financiers annuels dans un d\u00e9lai de six mois."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223021S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and Laurin, Marianne and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Fall Economic Statement 2022 \\textemdash Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223021S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and Laurin, Marianne and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={\\\u0027{E}nonc\\\u0027{e} \\\u0027{e}conomique de l\u2019automne 2022 \\textemdash Enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-020-S","is_published":"2022-11-10T13:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2022-11-10T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-11-10T13:57:05.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-020-S","title_en":"Risk Scenario Analysis \u2014 November 2022","title_fr":"Analyse de sc\u00e9nario de risque \u2014 Novembre 2022","slug":"RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/1784db049839a6abc9fce1862c044808c8f5395a2e6cd4ff6bc72ed642de352b"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4add25f0f3fe0524f9c433ba45ef4924dabde62e3e5d5e7f973ae656a4d43a70"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9ba2db66a0231ab8aa5b2c0099153c6042de983e216631333fdbd030fee443a4","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3caca905b6e0bb2962ed687fe19c6cc86a1090a6d695b4da233285a878bb7919","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3f6fa1760a0bae5d2a6d3edcab270fa53a490feb8e2d12f1de11d6ebfe3f3a7e","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/24b7f01db1ed2e1c05e4a4bf3855260440c9a2f9b0bc21dbe5d1295689d019c3","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b386a4acb137ce93d95c5a358bb89f1aa3ec86457664e9b9549510e0825ba487","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3cebe4cb090ff42b371b22f59326e72a57591b65f30ec28d03598f32480052d2","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06c5f829ec5b71c436108ae2031e4d47400ddf6a28bfac56fe983426945cf640","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/19244a50c1cc10599289bd9f560870402a1ff345f376c67c23c2ee3b62fa45b3"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/864e05e30bbd443b983df6ce74adab5067394fe483ea07485cd980baa419e8ad","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fb87d4f0ee7ef2867e8305574cac5ecfef7af2015a1ba90ceae30a5f78413daa","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0203f253d0c718aa7dd4f59961cce2266f702b91a880a4a1ef5ad47609d59bb7","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/df6b5342fbd6e3c834bdcede16ffd86a9f015d4425335d87cb995278bc326167","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1bb0219a6f866dec9f554e01e6d484ecd1c3718e2dfbc4ffae181a3e82571e1c","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/39d9221f1edfd01bd00c9fe70a99a207e66eeac8e5eab755c9c37b31cff16ce3","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2cf79e87b40ad197102eaeafb72b079efa16750e211bd59913dca52069867edb","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2c5bb7701b5ea810495b8bef191eeacf5d1cb8b27de3e88fbe7da744d15081ab"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a risk scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of central banks over-tightening monetary policy. **The scenario is not a most-likely forecast. It is an illustrative scenario of one possible outcome.**","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport propose une analyse de sc\u00e9nario de risque pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les possibles r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res d\u2019un resserrement excessif de la politique mon\u00e9taire par les banques centrales. **Le sc\u00e9nario ne constitue pas une pr\u00e9vision. Il ne montre qu\u2019une des issues possibles \u00e0 la situation.**","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Our risk scenario assumes that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will continue to rapidly raise their policy interest rates to 5.25 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively, in early 2023 (100 basis points above our October outlook). We assume that the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada will begin to lower their policy rates in early 2024.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, nous supposons que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine et la Banque du Canada continueront d\u2019augmenter rapidement leur taux directeur, de sorte qu\u2019il atteigne 5,25 % et 5,0 % respectivement au d\u00e9but de 2023 (100 points de base de plus que dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre). Nous supposons qu\u2019elles commenceront \u00e0 abaisser leur taux au d\u00e9but de 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"With the over-tightening of monetary policy, real GDP in Canada begins to contract in the fourth quarter of 2022 and declines further over the course of 2023 in our risk scenario. Annual real GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 is -0.3 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, which is 1.5 and 1.0 percentage points lower compared to our October outlook.","fr":"Compte tenu du resserrement excessif de la politique mon\u00e9taire pr\u00e9vu dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le PIB r\u00e9el du Canada commence \u00e0 se contracter au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2022 et continue de diminuer en 2023. La croissance annuelle du PIB r\u00e9el en 2023 et en 2024 est de 0,3 % et 1,3 % respectivement, ce qui repr\u00e9sente une baisse de 1,5 et 1,0 point de pourcentage par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives d\u2019octobre."}},{"content":{"en":"Under our risk scenario, employment growth essentially stalls in late 2022 and over the course of 2023. Employment falls below levels projected in our October outlook, resulting in a loss of 177,000 (net) jobs by the end of 2024. The unemployment rate rises to 6.2 per cent in early 2024 in our risk scenario, which is 0.5 percentage points above our October outlook.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, la croissance de l\u2019emploi stagne essentiellement \u00e0 la fin de 2022 et en 2023. L\u2019emploi tombe sous les niveaux pr\u00e9vus dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre, ce qui se traduit par une perte de 177 000 emplois (nets) d\u2019ici la fin de 2024. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage passe \u00e0 6,2 % au d\u00e9but de 2024 dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, soit 0,5 point de pourcentage de plus que ce que nous pr\u00e9voyions dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to weaker economic activity and higher interest rates in 2023 and 2024 under our risk scenario, the budgetary deficit reaches $42.9 billion in 2023-24 (1.5 per cent of GDP) and $36.5 billion in 2024-25 (1.3 per cent of GDP). Compared to our October outlook, the budgetary deficit is $15.6 billion higher per year, on average, over 2023-24 to 2027-28.","fr":"En raison du ralentissement de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et de la hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, en 2023 et 2024 pr\u00e9vus dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 42,9 milliards de dollars en 2023-2024 (1,5 % du PIB) et \u00e0 36,5 milliards en 2024-2025 (1,3 % du PIB). Par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives d\u2019octobre, il est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de 15,6 milliards de dollars par ann\u00e9e, en moyenne, de 2023-2024 \u00e0 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Under our risk scenario, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio increases to 43.2 per cent of GDP in 2023-24 and remains elevated before gradually falling to 39.2 per cent in 2027-28. The debt service ratio (that is public debt charges relative to tax revenues) reaches 14.3 per cent in 2024-25 and then declines to 12.0 per cent in 2027-28.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB augmente pour passer \u00e0 43,2 % du PIB en 2023-2024 et reste \u00e9lev\u00e9 avant de revenir graduellement \u00e0 39,2 % en 2027-2028. Le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes fiscales) atteint 14,3 % en 2024-2025 avant de retomber \u00e0 12,0 % en 2027-2028."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223020S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Behrend, Robert and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Risk Scenario Analysis \\textemdash November 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223020S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Behrend, Robert and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Analyse de sc\\\u0027{e}nario de risque \\textemdash Novembre 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-018-S","is_published":"2022-10-13T12:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2022-10-13T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-13T12:57:05.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-018-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 October 2022","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Octobre 2022","slug":"RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/258865a69ecf369e99f05a9e799d04136ed8c0b04830967d0ad5aecfd59f90f9"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/51a083e93dd377e22512a1bded7c9ec3406c0f7fac7eb2d3cc34b5fb31543ee6"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d7fa73999c04307e23d86d96180e5f91c31033c5a98ee407dc6b62cf9055991a","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9d332a78925718b07fbda3f93d76ab9bb2aebdba80cd6e29adc6f4cb242d2ddf","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fbb974d4b634d9d774e0b6d9a8963dcc027d71682e31681f69f8d3b8a772ef81","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b1ed7e24b589eb9697f566532534e451fdf683e36f72b4528766a85f31585db4","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fd5194e7f1ad4e2700932baba6f3337de968a2b78fbf3ac192ba3f9ddbca25f2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/569284196971fde0ae04a2fe40f3fb15fd9aeb8212b3a92d03fa50b47895fe1b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9c606032b827b08e41f6ef8fcef2179d1759bc6853619320448436732c0eb62c","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4e27d041a155bc9dbb184b1c2a2a5f0188b46d4baea9c42d68345e6e2188e539"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e868718d7e6d6970c4c12049c275e08082aad802f134c34933002ffffb819e10","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f6a27cfedbbd466a775bce54ecdf70d3f89806f124a864cedfd28e534ff00e9f","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/765b7fa64713a56d6569df337c447227e123b34ac1898507a5cadc055ea531f1","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3c2ccb74035ad35fa788f6075f4f194cfa212d85ad15450156ab4e19a9370a68","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ca52aaabbc28d4b60d603d25ababb7e5100d76064e4e8ffdef1c0cfb6c1ce1d2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d2b396382ddf283ac93c1e58d239a0485c786a64e9c61c61435e62d76eddc6ad","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b0bd984003014b83e12072b4962d24e1abbf54f1bdcbdac4f1f3a62f069bef29","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6b3117d563ea91e5017f03f8b53059e09c7bd98995dbfa2b78a825de0b37a3d6"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Since the beginning of March, the Bank of Canada has increased its policy rate by a total of 300 basis points. We expect the Bank to increase its policy rate further, reaching 4 per cent by the end of this year. With the tightening of monetary policy, PBO projects real GDP growth in Canada to slow considerably in the second half of 2022 and remain weak through 2023.","fr":"Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois de mars, la Banque du Canada a relev\u00e9 son taux directeur de 300 points de base au total et on peut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle le rel\u00e8ve encore pour qu\u2019il atteigne 4 % d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Avec le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire, le DPB pr\u00e9voit un net ralentissement de la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el du Canada pendant la seconde moiti\u00e9 de 2022 et une faible croissance tout au long de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"As supply constraints ease and commodity prices recede from elevated levels in the first half of 2022, softer demand in 2023 is expected to contribute to sustained reductions in CPI inflation. With CPI inflation solidly on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we expect the Bank of Canada to start lowering its policy interest rate in late 2023.","fr":"Les difficult\u00e9s d\u2019approvisionnement s\u2019estompant et le cours des produits de base baissant par rapport aux niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s dans la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de 2022, le fl\u00e9chissement de la demande en 2023 devrait contribuer \u00e0 la baisse continue de l\u2019inflation des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC). Celle-ci \u00e9tant alors en tr\u00e8s bonne voie pour revenir \u00e0 la cible de 2 %, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada commence \u00e0 baisser son taux directeur \u00e0 la fin de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"In the absence of final financial results for the past fiscal year, PBO estimates that there was a budgetary deficit of $97.0 billion (3.9 per cent of GDP) in 2021-22. For the current fiscal year 2022-23, PBO projects the deficit to decline to $25.8 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy.","fr":"En l\u2019absence de r\u00e9sultats financiers d\u00e9finitifs pour le dernier exercice, le DPB estime que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire pour 2021-2022 s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vait \u00e0 97 milliards de dollars (3,9 % du PIB). Pour l\u2019exercice en cours, 2022-2023, il devrait revenir \u00e0 25,8 milliards de dollars (0,9 % du PIB), si la politique demeure inchang\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to decline further, reaching $3.1 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in 2027-28, as growth in tax revenue tracks gains in nominal GDP and growth in program spending remains constrained.","fr":"En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne sera introduite et que les mesures temporaires actuelles prendront fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait continuer de baisser pour atteindre 3,1 milliards de dollars (0,1 % du PIB) en 2027-2028, la croissance des recettes fiscales suivant la hausse du PIB nominal et l\u2019augmentation des d\u00e9penses de programmes restant limit\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to continue to decline from its peak in 2020-21, gradually reaching 36.2 per cent in 2027-28, but remain above its pre-pandemic level. We project the debt service ratio (public debt charges relative to tax revenues) will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2024-25 and then decline gradually, reaching 10.9 per cent in 2027-28.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB continuera de baisser par rapport au pic atteint en 2020-2021 pour revenir graduellement \u00e0 36,2 % en 2027-2028, mais qu\u2019il restera sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il \u00e9tait avant la pand\u00e9mie. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes fiscales) atteindra 11,5 % en 2024-2025, avant de redescendre graduellement \u00e0 10,9 % en 2027-2028."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223018S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223018S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Octobre 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-011-S","is_published":"2022-06-22T12:57:02.000000Z","release_date":"2022-06-22T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-06-22T12:57:02.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-011-S","title_en":"Trans Mountain Pipeline - Update","title_fr":"R\u00e9seau de pipelines Trans Mountain \u2014 Mise \u00e0 jour","slug":"RP-2223-011-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-update--reseau-pipelines-trans-mountain-mise-jour","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-011-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-update--reseau-pipelines-trans-mountain-mise-jour","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-011-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-update--reseau-pipelines-trans-mountain-mise-jour"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-011-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-update--reseau-pipelines-trans-mountain-mise-jour","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-011-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-update--reseau-pipelines-trans-mountain-mise-jour"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/d714b42331f85149dc1b81cb44bb6bdae3288499ec7fa9c23c9c12672491c8e5"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/db851e1bec8cf0a01f22da2b9ce492faa2123766ffb09ed503b39af7d71dd5f2"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6e80fee445cf677646b6cbbdeb8fc2b2d0a55eac3b8ebed18b4424f9f9813f45","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5f84dc325a59da0ce03eabd2f4e9fc62cec189ca1c82df4ba26b4335c934fbe8","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/95bc32c8972cef3c1bdb90dc3221d74492e81fd114666d70115f2ab2ff5913cb","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ac1f894a7c1e4a85aedd6e88a53287d098031ff856810b0b80a1405ee52e3659","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/991ea41bdbf6cd3256c3aabfa7608c24b48e720376c57b7d2c9b8362707f9d09","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/078736f671807fec9633ff1f862299f8fdcd9d9f92baf8e11987eb98e5eb08d2","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/de05e3aa84e78eb40a3154dfd706ba63986a8f9fd76cdcf12392cf69428a3482","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8919e24c2a5c16f0ba18d868dfb4b63a6a4ab97bb7ff1d5944f17f04109d548f"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e50a2ac54d6af7e5a2b047f8bdc59a5379c2c9dd363088e22fab644ea31d10ba","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2a0192e36bf1ba42b7dde2925302ef11ea3734bc4fb2a1c6dc19b16dcdda87a5","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6680382a6de3888d0f65417ba82c8ee6ea57a00c54a5882e7d502ddd79d06860","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/005cceb145148d80c9a29e0ad9727282cdf9518fdec1659b3efda29b3bd66548","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b0ba11c05e707d7e5f1d5c86a64640f8fa834e935c8a11d5a2fe2f8a8f759b57","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9cbd3a1e269e582f172613372201c1bb901bbf960363aced5d29262e2bf48875","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/52aec131a82a833ac9421b5668b4bb9c052bc42dfee6c07cbbce92a6a71d1a93","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9b1df467f26ea670d04eb446a35dd84d0258aa36a38efc7fc7bcbb3f3e9ecb1a"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"In December 2020, PBO released a report assessing the Government of Canada\u2019s 2018 decision to acquire, expand, operate, and eventually divest of the Trans Mountain Pipeline system.\n\nThis report provides an updated financial valuation of the purchased assets and estimates the valuation\u2019s sensitivity to several key factors.","abstract_fr":"En d\u00e9cembre 2020, le DPB a publi\u00e9 un rapport d\u2019\u00e9valuation sur la d\u00e9cision que le gouvernement du Canada a prise en 2018 d\u2019acqu\u00e9rir, d\u2019agrandir, d\u2019exploiter puis d\u2019un jour de c\u00e9der les actifs du r\u00e9seau de pipelines Trans Mountain.\n\nCe rapport pr\u00e9sente l\u2019\u00e9valuation \u00e0 jour de la valeur financi\u00e8re des actifs acquis ainsi que l\u2019estimation de la sensibilit\u00e9 de leur valeur \u00e0 plusieurs facteurs cl\u00e9s.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"In this update, PBO finds that the Government\u2019s 2018 decision to acquire, expand, operate, and eventually divest of the Trans Mountain assets will result in a net loss for the federal government as calculated on a Net Present Value (NPV basis).","fr":"Dans la pr\u00e9sente mise \u00e0 jour, le DPB constate que la d\u00e9cision prise par le gouvernement en 2018 d\u2019acqu\u00e9rir, d\u2019agrandir, d\u2019exploiter puis de c\u00e9der les actifs du r\u00e9seau de pipelines Trans Mountain occasionnera une perte nette pour le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, calcul\u00e9e selon la valeur actualis\u00e9e nette (VAN)."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO also examined a scenario where the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion is stopped after June 2022 and cancelled indefinitely. Under this scenario, the Government would need to write off over $14 billion in assets. The net impact would result in a significant financial loss for the Government and would lead to the Trans Mountain Corporation no longer being a going concern.","fr":"Le DPB a \u00e9galement examin\u00e9 un sc\u00e9nario selon lequel l\u2019agrandissement du pipeline Trans Mountain cesserait apr\u00e8s juin 2022 et serait annul\u00e9 pour une dur\u00e9e ind\u00e9termin\u00e9e. Dans un tel sc\u00e9nario, le gouvernement devrait radier des actifs d\u2019une valeur de plus de 14 milliards de dollars. Cela entra\u00eenerait des pertes financi\u00e8res consid\u00e9rables pour celui-ci et se traduirait par le fait que Trans Mountain Corporation cesserait ses activit\u00e9s."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223011S,\n author={Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Trans Mountain Pipeline - Update},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223011S,\n author={Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={R\\\u0027{e}seau de pipelines Trans Mountain \\textemdash Mise \\`{a} jour},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-001-S","is_published":"2022-04-22T12:57:10.000000Z","release_date":"2022-04-22T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-04-22T13:03:40.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-001-S","title_en":"Budget 2022: Issues for parliamentarians","title_fr":"Budget de 2022 : Consid\u00e9rations pour les 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assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2022.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fait ressortir les faits saillants du budget de 2022 pour aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Since the start of the pandemic, the Government has spent, or has planned to spend, $576 billion in new measures\u2014over 35 per cent, $204.5 billion, of this spending is not part of the COVID-19 Response Plan.","fr":"Depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie, le gouvernement a d\u00e9pens\u00e9, ou pr\u00e9vu de d\u00e9penser, 576 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures \u2013 plus de 35 % de ces d\u00e9penses, soit 204,5 milliards de dollars, ne fait pas partie du Plan d\u2019intervention \u00e9conomique du Canada pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la COVID-19."}},{"content":{"en":"Implementation of any remaining measures from the Liberal Party of Canada\u2019s 2021 election platform, as well as additional commitments not included in Budget 2022, such as Pharmacare, will impact the budgetary balance going forward.","fr":"La mise en \u0153uvre de toute mesure restante du programme \u00e9lectoral de 2021 du Parti lib\u00e9ral du Canada, ainsi que tout engagement suppl\u00e9mentaire non indiqu\u00e9 au budget de 2022, comme l\u2019assurance-m\u00e9dicaments, aura une incidence sur le solde budg\u00e9taire ult\u00e9rieur."}},{"content":{"en":"Budget 2022 includes new spending on tax compliance, which is expected to recover $3.4 billion in revenues. There is downside risk to the projected recovery in revenues due to a likely increase in the number of objections and appeals from taxpayers and CRA\u2019s performance on the collection of arrears.","fr":"Le budget de 2022 comporte de nouvelles d\u00e9penses pour l\u2019observation fiscale, dont on s\u2019attend qu\u2019elles entra\u00eenent le recouvrement de recettes fiscales de 3,4 milliards de dollars. Les recettes recouvr\u00e9es pourraient toutefois \u00eatre moins \u00e9lev\u00e9es que pr\u00e9vu, en raison d\u2019une probable augmentation du nombre d\u2019oppositions et d\u2019appels des contribuables et du rendement de l\u2019ARC en mati\u00e8re de perception des arri\u00e9r\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government expects to reduce spending by $9.0 billion beginning in 2023-24. The Government intends to review and identify areas to reduce spending. However, specific details regarding the scope of the review have not yet been announced.","fr":"Le gouvernement s\u2019attend \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les d\u00e9penses de 9,0 milliards de dollars en 2023-2024. Il entend proc\u00e9der \u00e0 un examen afin de d\u00e9terminer les secteurs o\u00f9 les d\u00e9penses seront r\u00e9duites. Cependant, certains d\u00e9tails sur la port\u00e9e de l\u2019examen n\u2019ont pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"The tabling of Budget 2022 a month after the Government\u2019s Main Estimates decouples the Government\u2019s fiscal planning from the medium-term operational plans tabled in Parliament. Parliamentarians could be well served by adopting a new legislative or administrative framework to enforce better alignment among the Government\u2019s various financial reports.","fr":"Le d\u00e9p\u00f4t du budget de 2022 un mois apr\u00e8s la pr\u00e9sentation du budget principal des d\u00e9penses dissocie la planification financi\u00e8re du gouvernement des plans op\u00e9rationnels \u00e0 moyen terme d\u00e9pos\u00e9s au Parlement. Il pourrait \u00eatre utile que les parlementaires adoptent un nouveau cadre l\u00e9gislatif ou administratif pour imposer une meilleure harmonisation entre les divers rapports financiers du gouvernement."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223001S,\n author={Bernier, Govindadeva and Grinshpoon, Kristina and Jacques, Jason and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Perrault, Louis and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Budget 2022: Issues for parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223001S,\n author={Bernier, Govindadeva and Grinshpoon, Kristina and Jacques, Jason and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Perrault, Louis and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Budget de 2022 : Consid\\\u0027{e}rations pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente des pr\u00e9visions de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles en vertu des cadres d\u2019action actuels.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO projects growth in the Canadian economy to rebound sharply in the second quarter and remain robust in the second half of 2022 as the reopening of the economy continues.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne reprendra nettement au cours du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre et qu\u2019elle demeurera solide durant la deuxi\u00e8me moiti\u00e9 de 2022 alors que se poursuit la r\u00e9ouverture progressive de l\u2019\u00e9conomie."}},{"content":{"en":"Based on our outlook for inflation and the output gap, PBO projects that the Bank of Canada will increase its policy interest rate by a cumulative 75 basis points, lifting its rate to 1.00 per cent by the end of 2022.","fr":"En s\u2019appuyant sur ses perspectives concernant l\u2019inflation et l\u2019\u00e9cart de production, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la Banque du Canada va augmenter son taux directeur de 75 points de base cumulatifs, relevant le taux \u00e0 1 % d\u2019ici la fin de 2022."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects a budget deficit of $139.8 billion (5.6 per cent of GDP) in 2021-22 and $47.9 billion (1.8 per cent of GDP) in 2022-23. We project the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to peak at 47.7 per cent in 2021-22 and then gradually decline over the medium term to 42.3 per cent.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 139,8 milliards de dollars en 2021-2022 (5,6 % du PIB) et de 47,9 milliards de dollars en 2022-2023, soit 1,8 % du PIB. Le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB devrait atteindre un sommet \u00e0 47,7 % du PIB en 2021-2022 avant de revenir progressivement \u00e0 moyen terme \u00e0 42,3 %."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to low interest rates, the cost of servicing the federal debt reached its lowest recorded level in 2020-21 of 7.2 per cent of tax revenues. While interest rates are projected to rise, the debt service ratio will remain low, reaching 11.5 per cent of tax revenues over the medium term.","fr":"\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 les faibles taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, le co\u00fbt de service de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale a atteint son niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 en 2020-2021, \u00e0 7,2 % des recettes fiscales. Malgr\u00e9 la hausse anticip\u00e9e des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, le ratio du service de la dette du gouvernement demeurera bas, atteignant 11,5 % des recettes fiscales \u00e0 moyen terme."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122030S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Duncan, Krista and Forsyth, Jamie and Giswold, Jill and MacPhee, Sarah and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Segel-Brown, Ben and Sourang, Diarra and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122030S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Duncan, Krista and Forsyth, Jamie and Giswold, Jill and MacPhee, Sarah and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Segel-Brown, Ben and Sourang, Diarra and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Mars 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2122-027-S","is_published":"2022-01-19T14:00:10.000000Z","release_date":"2022-01-19T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-01-19T14:00:10.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2122-027-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Update 2021: Issues for Parliamentarians","title_fr":"Mise \u00e0 jour \u00e9conomique et budg\u00e9taire de 2021 : Enjeux pour les 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report highlights key issues arising from the 2021 Economic and Fiscal Update to assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fait ressortir les faits saillants de la mise \u00e0 jour \u00e9conomique et budg\u00e9taire de 2021 pour aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"To promote fiscal transparency, the report recommends legislative amendments for Parliament to consider, such as moving the release date of the Public Accounts by three months to no later than September 30th.","fr":"Par souci de transparence budg\u00e9taire, le rapport recommande au Parlement d\u2019\u00e9tudier des modifications l\u00e9gislatives, visant notamment \u00e0 devancer la publication des Comptes publics de trois mois, soit au plus tard le 30 septembre."}},{"content":{"en":"The report shows that since the start of the pandemic, the Government has spent, or has planned to spend, $541.9 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The report estimates that remaining platform measures would amount to $48.5 billion in net new spending.","fr":"Les 71,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures dans la Mise \u00e0 jour du gouvernement s\u2019ajoutent en grande partie aux mesures incluses dans le programme \u00e9lectoral du Parti lib\u00e9ral du Canada pour 2021. Le rapport estime que les autres mesures de la plateforme s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8veraient \u00e0 48,5 milliards de dollars en nouvelles d\u00e9penses nettes."}},{"content":{"en":"Fiscal guardrail indicators in the Update have effectively returned to their pre-pandemic benchmarks. The report notes that the policy rationale for the additional spending initially presented as stimulus spending no longer exists.","fr":"Les indicateurs que sont les garde-fous budg\u00e9taires sont revenus \u00e0 leur niveau de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie. Le rapport note que les d\u00e9penses suppl\u00e9mentaires initialement pr\u00e9vues pour la relance \u00e9conomique ne sont plus n\u00e9cessaires."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122027S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and MacPhee, Sarah and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Update 2021: Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122027S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and MacPhee, Sarah and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Mise \\`{a} jour \\\u0027{e}conomique et budg\\\u0027{e}taire de 2021 : Enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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response to a request by Member of Parliament Glen Motz (Medicine Hat\u2014Cardston\u2014Warner), this report estimates, under various scenarios, the cost of firearm compensation as part of the Government\u2019s firearm buy-back program.","abstract_fr":"En r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 une demande du d\u00e9put\u00e9 Glen Motz (Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner), ce rapport \u00e9value, selon diff\u00e9rents sc\u00e9narios, le co\u00fbt de l\u2019indemnisation des propri\u00e9taires d\u2019armes \u00e0 feu dans le cadre du programme de rachat du gouvernement.","highlights":null},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2122011M,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Cost Estimate of the Firearm Buy-Back Program},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2021,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2122011M,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Stanton, Jason},\n title={\\\u0027{E}valuation du cout du programme de rachat d\u2019armes 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January 2019, PBO released a [report](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-1819-392--canadas-purchase-of-the-trans-mountain--achat-du-pipeline-trans-mountain-par) assessing the Government of Canada\u2019s 2018 decision to acquire, expand, operate, and eventually divest of the Trans Mountain Pipeline system.\n\nThis report provides an updated financial valuation of the purchased assets, estimates the valuation\u2019s sensitivity to several key factors, and projects the economic impact of the Expansion Project\u2019s construction activities.","abstract_fr":"En janvier 2019, le DPB a publi\u00e9 un [rapport](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-1819-392--canadas-purchase-of-the-trans-mountain--achat-du-pipeline-trans-mountain-par) \u00e9valuant la d\u00e9cision du gouvernement du Canada en 2018 d\u2019acheter, d\u2019agrandir, d\u2019exploiter puis de c\u00e9der le pipeline Trans Mountain.\n \nLe pr\u00e9sent rapport renferme une \u00e9valuation financi\u00e8re des actifs achet\u00e9s, une estimation de la sensibilit\u00e9 de cette \u00e9valuation \u00e0 plusieurs facteurs cl\u00e9s, et une estimation des retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques des activit\u00e9s de construction du projet d\u2019agrandissement du r\u00e9seau de Trans Mountain (PARTM).","highlights":null},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2021035S,\n author={Stanton, Jason and Wodrich, Nigel and Matier, Chris},\n title={Trans Mountain Pipeline - Financial and Economic Considerations - Update},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2021035S,\n author={Stanton, Jason and Wodrich, Nigel and Matier, Chris},\n title={Le pipeline Trans Mountain - Consid\\\u0027{e}rations financi\\`{e}res et \\\u0027{e}conomiques - Mise \\`{a} jour},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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note presents a detailed analysis of the Government\u2019s second supplementary estimates for the 2020-21 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament\u2019s approval of $20.9 billion.","abstract_fr":"Cette note fournit une analyse d\u00e9taill\u00e9e du deuxi\u00e8me budget suppl\u00e9mentaire des d\u00e9penses du gouvernement pour l\u0027exercice 2020-2021, dans lequel ce dernier demande au Parlement d\u0027approuver des d\u00e9penses totalisant 20,9 milliards de dollars.","highlights":null},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2021034S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Supplementary Estimates (B) 2020-21},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2021034S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Budget suppl\\\u0027{e}mentaire des d\\\u0027{e}penses (B) 2020-2021},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2021-022-S","is_published":"2021-01-26T20:16:02.000000Z","release_date":"2020-10-02T04:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2021-01-26T20:16:02.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2021-022-S","title_en":"Crown corporations\u2019 COVID-19 liquidity support","title_fr":"Soutien \u00e0 la liquidit\u00e9 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u2019\u00c9tat en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la COVID-19","slug":"RP-2021-022-S--crown-corporations-covid-19-liquidity-support--soutien-liquidite-societes-etat-en-reponse-covid-19","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2021-022-S--crown-corporations-covid-19-liquidity-support--soutien-liquidite-societes-etat-en-reponse-covid-19","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2021-022-S--crown-corporations-covid-19-liquidity-support--soutien-liquidite-societes-etat-en-reponse-covid-19"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2021-022-S--crown-corporations-covid-19-liquidity-support--soutien-liquidite-societes-etat-en-reponse-covid-19","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2021-022-S--crown-corporations-covid-19-liquidity-support--soutien-liquidite-societes-etat-en-reponse-covid-19"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/ba4dd5941d973cee718b5c52adbd4f12d12d2221ddd16d4c6ffa35ebbc226159"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/57599fce2ebbde3d89dc92bf775dc24c11497f686f12042bd76139b9e8380dd6"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ea2747c688e822910da576b6f2deb3f754fb0616","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/58ec5d90f6af96fb2beb576c919bf7bf5c6d08d8","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/53a7859438c90420fbba5b874098d485534bf777","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1a3b179b85f506fa24c7885cd05aa142645bb935","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2e7b0b676e551a1350e906bb935baffa5ae73b1d","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/44205fb3aa7acd98aaef4c5d8336af9b5c05f6c8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/08a05bfb1d10e176c33eb7a7f93e736d213b2ce6","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fad9156c2e00d7e00a99054802dc52a417127552"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3744b031dae322da0be37a105e46d2865d65412a","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fee625adc39d1e89f9bff46974f146a1e9c20e05","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c890065d98fac422654f2c91c10314622034b1dd","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/801ba5945f646c23dfd4cb7899a6ed4172ede759","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dd15b68e273fcbff1ac7ed590ec71ccce4e3f979","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f9dafeb64a78dc2e14882b03ab6ae6e78088f551","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/42c1c6e72367d8e3a424058c541a3e6fd99a371a","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cc80bb59c09008c359a1ff77cf8c5ec36b79ec4d"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This 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PBO estimates total liquidity supports through August 2020, and highlights gaps in publicly-available risk metrics for these supports.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport expose les grandes lignes du train de mesures de soutien \u00e0 la liquidit\u00e9 offertes par cinq soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u2019\u00c9tat f\u00e9d\u00e9rales en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la COVID-19. Le DPB fait une estimation de ce que repr\u00e9sentent l\u2019ensemble de ces mesures jusqu\u2019au mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt 2020, et souligne l\u2019insuffisance de donn\u00e9es accessibles au public sur les risques que comportent ces mesures.","highlights":null},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2021022S,\n author={Liberge-Simard, Rapha\\\u0022{e}l and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Crown corporations\u2019 COVID-19 liquidity support},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2021022S,\n author={Liberge-Simard, Rapha\\\u0022{e}l and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Soutien \\`{a} la liquidit\\\u0027{e} des soci\\\u0027{e}t\\\u0027{e}s d\u2019\\\u0027{E}tat en r\\\u0027{e}ponse \\`{a} la COVID-19},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"LEG-2021-014-S","is_published":"2021-05-11T18:42:10.000000Z","release_date":"2020-04-24T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2021-05-11T19:10:15.000000Z","type":"LEG","internal_id":"LEG-2021-014-S","title_en":"Loan Guarantee Program for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs)","title_fr":"Programme de garantie et de pr\u00eats pour les petites et moyennes entreprises (PME)","slug":"LEG-2021-014-S--loan-guarantee-program-small-medium-sized-enterprises-smes--programme-garantie-prets-petites-moyennes-entreprises-pme","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2021-014-S--loan-guarantee-program-small-medium-sized-enterprises-smes--programme-garantie-prets-petites-moyennes-entreprises-pme","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2021-014-S--loan-guarantee-program-small-medium-sized-enterprises-smes--programme-garantie-prets-petites-moyennes-entreprises-pme"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2021-014-S--loan-guarantee-program-small-medium-sized-enterprises-smes--programme-garantie-prets-petites-moyennes-entreprises-pme","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2021-014-S--loan-guarantee-program-small-medium-sized-enterprises-smes--programme-garantie-prets-petites-moyennes-entreprises-pme"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/7aa46f687557a6637f2d74b0124550641bf639d2abaf1f7363e5d7c04614736c"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/e176c8b0a74865a1609e8150be333139c515b5a096a1321e1a1d4e751b034520"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c413921dbdff9b3156a003b0fe298c076e1c014ddbf9a973dedb75f02926c890","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6dd836cbe404b82d60a222cf3ab461ead43ea906db79c73259507c465b417941","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/59d0b69547bd23b186547a050e9bef7d2e49d2be6b1cb2d11e2f120741034726","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b6b62714cb56d2fb931a96d9e535bbcef552f7b09765f68ca9b4aaa6cae37211","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b2596a7a51495bbd1d36e52be03e5b929897019d6ad3d40daeae297d8e9e8894","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6f887047b9d1f7f3e82a81359f6c8c0ca7780b6e67555d19ea6692898b657f59","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8344a6ba93db77e8cd35a7c26439915a8b54cd3b2008d022061f309fb1e7db73","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1492dc598764c3864b09b573fbc9222de2db18e51f3c6ef9dbfe55c1468f9947"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cdc20d826504f1500cf456f5335b535951a27fab46da05789ac189675a75e863","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb158b0269d4e340308a345c4780305dc9b151bafb0c0eab6acdbc84a749c91d","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6e812b14fd6814bcd69db998e67f369baf3890c457408a0b8d4c5aae65049a2f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5d6b8a6ac56c863a0e496a5739bc7d9f8d4e89b055ac70f62ccb04a1b4459b4b","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4782afe527071b5efd9704e7ba9c50ed82e5cacb8f51b6c8a2c25658bfc98a68","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bff630d554cda95b0411248bd29c1a32900a75aabf41b7d5806349a1724eaa00","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fdbc450cedeccaef6624ac56ae0f233be201232f751ec92d74a686c797116ecb","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6f6afaf222f96b2fc5745001b7039d78d188a4cd7e1266803005fb0ffcfa0cc1"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"Export Development Canada (EDC) guarantees 80% of new loans to SMEs, up to $6.25 million, with a total program envelope of $20 billion. PBO estimates total net income of this measure to be $3 million in 2020-21. The time horizon for this costing is aligned to PBO\u2019s current Economic and Fiscal Scenario, although there may be potential fiscal impacts for subsequent years.","abstract_fr":"Exportation et d\u00e9veloppement Canada (EDC) garantit 80 % des nouveaux pr\u00eats aux PME, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 concurrence de 6,25 millions de dollars. L\u2019enveloppe totale du programme se chiffre \u00e0 20 milliards de dollars. Le DPB estime le revenu net total de cette mesure \u00e0 3 millions de dollars en 2020-2021. 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PBO estimates total net income generated by this measure to be $96 million in 2020-21. The time horizon for this costing is aligned to the Economic and Fiscal Scenario PBO published on March 27, 2020, which only extends to 2020-21. There are likely fiscal impacts from this measure for subsequent years.","abstract_fr":"Accroissement de la capacit\u00e9 de pr\u00eat de Financement agricole Canada (FAC) de 5 milliards de dollars. Le DPB estime le revenu net total de cette mesure \u00e0 96 millions de dollars en 2020-2021. L\u2019horizon temporel de cette \u00e9valuation de co\u00fbts s\u2019aligne sur le sc\u00e9nario \u00e9conomique et financier publi\u00e9s par le DPB le 27 mars 2020, qui ne s\u2019\u00e9chelonnent que jusqu\u2019en 2020-2021. 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