[{"label":"Home","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en"},{"label":"Team","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}},{"label":"Lisa Barkova","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe\/lisa-barkova","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}}]

Lisa Barkova

Analyst

Lisa is an Analyst at the OPBO. Prior to joining the Office, she worked as a research assistant on several academic research projects in experimental economics, financial economics, and gender economics with primary investigators affiliated with the University of Chicago, Emory University, Queen’s University, and York University. Lisa holds an MA in Economics from Queen’s University and a BA in Economics from York University.

Latest publications

    {"id":"RP-2425-007-S","is_published":"2024-05-31T12:57:07.000000Z","release_date":"2024-05-31T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-05-31T12:57:07.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2425-007-S","title_en":"Costing Asylum Claims from Visa-Exempt Countries","title_fr":"Analyse des co\u00fbts des demandeurs d\u2019asile de pays dispens\u00e9s de l\u2019obligation de visa","slug":"RP-2425-007-S--costing-asylum-claims-from-visa-exempt-countries--analyse-couts-demandeurs-asile-pays-dispenses-obligation-visa","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-007-S--costing-asylum-claims-from-visa-exempt-countries--analyse-couts-demandeurs-asile-pays-dispenses-obligation-visa","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-007-S--costing-asylum-claims-from-visa-exempt-countries--analyse-couts-demandeurs-asile-pays-dispenses-obligation-visa"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-007-S--costing-asylum-claims-from-visa-exempt-countries--analyse-couts-demandeurs-asile-pays-dispenses-obligation-visa","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-007-S--costing-asylum-claims-from-visa-exempt-countries--analyse-couts-demandeurs-asile-pays-dispenses-obligation-visa"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/14408e6cce9c4580c665d30d89a53cbb3b70e3a9ba528c14adf0e703f0205788"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/9b8724e13d5dca92804b0b340f78cac74b7a66d632eca357fd991fc39201b4eb"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e16c90c4349b51de9c4728c2d4b6915ba9262504440912ec71c2addc38a8d251","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/36eb7dfdd8047e049d6fa400fa2ef90cb327f796dbfaae035446660d2f1a99a9","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5ca69791162c2382a35541ffc79c845b1632f006987082a227d4aebe47b0fd0f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1d55c7ae01356ea0e6c84b270aa5336cd33a467d3ed4a1d332ec3324eb9a77fe","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5319398e429577faf1c607fdcec46a0591111d9989c0ae0c616cb49d7e587a9e","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/244d58858f281d8b7e7f06cf396175e8c32cdfb250b1d60eb9b0156fb6939402","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9d7db813f32c135422aaea2f2109e24acc82394058e70c2a29da23d59cb88d2d","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/58452bd870658c03c204f5de96020725479d6eab6c27f020d1468c36f91ebfdd"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fc5d6d4e02ccc54f5a665aecedb9d79f4b62a7111ff18bea53a32b401fd02549","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/68c9ba2a637f019db0b636eab345be00e3262237cf8396abfe0e32ad73b89827","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c1e804923bb5f8e07011fc770bf45b7411c2748f6a4b08ab91d76752c814da4e","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c182d69de1e09498dc3cbf8eadab73bd3b7073707070f6b9e5a5e6d3a94053c2","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ca7c434c5a8e3b62e5619bce2acf16761703010ebe278d2ee1c90f4cc08482ef","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/868db6e1c43651b35ff0fb5ee32b28ec2c8e4ec1f251867e432f0245396b608e","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0e67fbb492cb641f12d1d28fab6f8f61f5f69ee2a3dda4e13c56ad0994c3340b","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/db1de61e8dc72fbb3d048b1913e28574c54f641bcde057374123560e4fdebfeb"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"In response to parliamentary interest, PBO prepared an estimate of the total costs to the federal government associated with asylum claimants who have arrived from visa-exempt countries. This report presents an average unit cost per asylum claimant, based on the costs associated with the federal government organizations involved in the asylum process.","abstract_fr":"Afin de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des parlementaires, le DPB a pr\u00e9par\u00e9 une estimation des co\u00fbts totaux, pour le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, li\u00e9s aux demandeurs d\u2019asile arriv\u00e9s de pays exempt\u00e9s de l\u2019obligation de visa. Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente un co\u00fbt unitaire moyen par demandeur d\u2019asile, en fonction des co\u00fbts engag\u00e9s par les organismes du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral qui participent au processus de demande d\u2019asile.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Since 2017, the first full year of Electronic Travel Authorization (eTA) implementation, the number of asylum claimants increased by 185% (with an average annual increase of 49%). At the same time, the proportion of asylum claimants whose last approved temporary resident application was an eTA has increased from 7% (3,500) in 2017 to an all-time high of 21% (19,155) in 2022 and reaching 19% (27,035) in 2023.","fr":"Depuis 2017, la premi\u00e8re ann\u00e9e compl\u00e8te de mise en \u0153uvre de l\u2019autorisation de voyage \u00e9lectronique (AVE), le nombre de demandeurs d\u2019asile a augment\u00e9 de 185 % (et de 49 % en moyenne par ann\u00e9e). En m\u00eame temps, la proportion de demandeurs d\u2019asile dont la derni\u00e8re demande de r\u00e9sidence temporaire approuv\u00e9e \u00e9tait une AVE a augment\u00e9, passant de 7 % (3 500) en 2017 \u00e0 un sommet jamais vu de 21 % (19 155) en 2022, puis \u00e0 19 % (27 035) en 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates that the average cost for each asylum claimant arriving with an eTA over the entire asylum claim process, which can span multiple fiscal years, is $16,500 in 2024.","fr":"Le DPB estime que le co\u00fbt moyen li\u00e9 \u00e0 chaque demandeur d\u2019asile qui arrive avec une AVE pendant l\u2019ensemble du processus de demande d\u2019asile, qui peut s\u2019\u00e9tendre sur plusieurs exercices, s\u2019\u00e9tablit \u00e0 16 500 $ en 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"Accounting for organizational capacities, the cost associated with claimants who have arrived in Canada with an eTA before January 1st, 2024, but who have not received the final decision is estimated to be $455 million over the 5-year processing period. This excludes all claims made after that date, for which decisions (and costs) will also be required.","fr":"Si l\u2019on tient compte des capacit\u00e9s organisationnelles, le co\u00fbt li\u00e9 aux demandeurs qui sont arriv\u00e9s au Canada avec une AVE avant le 1er janvier 2024, mais qui n\u2019ont pas encore fait l\u2019objet d\u2019une d\u00e9cision d\u00e9finitive s\u2019\u00e9tablit \u00e0 un montant estim\u00e9 de 455 millions de dollars au cours de la p\u00e9riode quinquennale de traitement. Toutes les demandes pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es apr\u00e8s cette date, qui devront aussi faire l\u2019objet de d\u00e9cisions (et qui engageront des co\u00fbts) sont exclues."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425007S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa},\n title={Costing Asylum Claims from Visa-Exempt Countries},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425007S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa},\n title={Analyse des couts des demandeurs d\u2019asile de pays dispens\\\u0027{e}s de l\u2019obligation de visa},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"LEG-2425-003-S","is_published":"2024-05-15T12:57:09.000000Z","release_date":"2024-05-15T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-05-15T12:57:09.000000Z","type":"LEG","internal_id":"LEG-2425-003-S","title_en":"An Act respecting pharmacare","title_fr":"Loi concernant l\u2019assurance m\u00e9dicaments","slug":"LEG-2425-003-S--an-act-respecting-pharmacare--loi-concernant-assurance-medicaments","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2425-003-S--an-act-respecting-pharmacare--loi-concernant-assurance-medicaments","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2425-003-S--an-act-respecting-pharmacare--loi-concernant-assurance-medicaments"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2425-003-S--an-act-respecting-pharmacare--loi-concernant-assurance-medicaments","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2425-003-S--an-act-respecting-pharmacare--loi-concernant-assurance-medicaments"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/717eaf4e6e546078e4babb78d55f1abb6fec87ecb520e4c6e6594af644cb77bb"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/748f70ad33251c83f29009b45288e9641384cbeb3c20ae6563d7aa9d49055de5"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ee21504dd0b61892a2d137b4e831c1f664509f81cc22890099be64bdefca2bd7","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/70286776e5f29dc80ebe0f6fd072f28feca4772e7366c9b2fb698917a36f6eb2","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/452891b428e1c4b1141efe14ea71221f61443a798223b03b4349110c6a27b267","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c371059227d91715668e745bf598da99d1b6849d682467f28217a1c4418f9116","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb82b4e867e3d9de21be6711ac73695a3bba57962bdd6d1fb56f0184dbd7d27b","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/78688d2afd01bcfa147b3bee74a033393cd106533323ddccb758ecae35c1df60","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8267532fbacf2eba00256d112d5690d49e74b5bf67b3e2f6488b175f5c5daada","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6637dc33f28cc6d2cd1dedfdb696832c41c7c0031e32972c7233bd27b910513b"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3be41e060c0ba05d753356851403c8d600e1c568a0bcf61f0a06ea5bbd1ba6c9","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cecf8963cc3c346d846bf583364609694b512e0cf7d9186f86921c1e017dc7bb","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a3aa3a246615999c04c4915deb094c91b6eeb50baa2761e82a7098a609694a08","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3339fdf15174280824b5ee2445d3f503d88bf1fd3021e1c4d286e3777ce0bb29","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/98d470604f0cb862c6f5b359194320364256a47db0670ba6d5df7ededaf76d82","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0d769746a60b5a0e9e93449df0912955a890847a9c5d26a19472c38f57decaba","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b01e9f10a24343d2dc10e527ac12b3cb1268bbd8cd68662d40458a146df05589","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/37529935a2af2d31506cc64455ecd1bca19c70d1fc7cf9e72071f68d71d615a0"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"Bill C-64 proposes to provide universal, single-payer, first-dollar coverage for a range of contraception and diabetes medications as the first phase of national universal pharmacare. The aim of the program is to expand and enhance, rather than replace, existing provincial and territorial coverage.\n\nThe PBO estimates that the first phase of national universal pharmacare will increase federal program spending by $1.9 billion over five years. This estimate assumes that any medications that are currently covered by provincial and territorial governments, as well as private insurance providers will remain covered on the same terms.","abstract_fr":"\u00c0 titre de premi\u00e8re phase d\u2019un r\u00e9gime d\u2019assurance m\u00e9dicaments national et universel, le projet de loi C-64 propose d\u2019offrir une couverture universelle au premier dollar \u00e0 payeur unique pour divers m\u00e9dicaments contraceptifs et pour le traitement du diab\u00e8te. Le programme vise \u00e0 bonifier et \u00e9largir, et non pas remplacer la couverture provinciale et territoriale.\n\nLe DPB estime que la premi\u00e8re phase du r\u00e9gime d\u2019assurance m\u00e9dicaments national universel augmentera les d\u00e9penses du programme f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de 1,9 milliard de dollars sur cinq ans. Cette estimation suppose que les m\u00e9dicaments actuellement couverts par les gouvernements provinciaux et territoriaux, ainsi que par les assureurs priv\u00e9s, resteront couverts aux m\u00eames conditions.","highlights":[]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-LEG2425003S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa},\n title={An Act respecting pharmacare},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-LEG2425003S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa},\n title={Loi concernant l\u2019assurance m\\\u0027{e}dicaments},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-027-S","is_published":"2024-03-05T13:57:09.000000Z","release_date":"2024-03-05T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-03-05T13:57:09.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-027-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2014 March 2024","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2014 Mars 2024","slug":"RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-027-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2024"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/592b2821b72a722d94c7e2ec550869247372b74075bbba84f38f09c8b398fce9"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c4cdb97a9afd883daa9e3d3e5391752c1a3def1a44039e6ae978ac84625ab38"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06095f19ca30d6fc8a62e52d7c5a64f0b9c5aa6910c3c18996b34405155b6077","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/193cee6e59ff94014ee8cde3ef61c938752076572e540ed663955de3dd4d4253","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/333d8b06ff001133abd4a56b5d354ce264bb556a0084a4f3920ee4eff8d9489c","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ccdbba14afda98a8df3c8e1228b3605e6aa2c8b67096d0e2919fd593a7535eab","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2a83fb90de2a7d96a541a581e66b63da3d200e81f92b280d7e66a73ce06ab7ea","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2634b3c2c427a0819236effc902f3b958ea661c6d9bdf202154e68a836e7f7f5","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3076bacb621066bf6486b3c84dfce44e410ccf761d848121d3983861487a7744","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/57aee2ca666b3496b4b887b4b6b374f872c8c6aabe9241457dbdab9ccca1372e"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/90f20a17fafa029f686260ced14140337e6f2188e8b1f3599b30eaf25ca5906d","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7bc398e2aac825d14c45c527125d0cbfa48fe76dd9ea7263985db5829b94e8c","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/47329158fe8dc39c56ae28a48ce0a82834432f9f7951cf313c1b33f030b21b8f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5dbaa3fe6b3a25c0c1f221ed7b11ef344a2c3e9690ef34db402122a50ff7a5f9","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/07544b6965ecbc93e866d9f5a34d45c70a4fe919ce66bbca45aae402b6a4b775","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f445fff1f4395e5a7bc05d3de9a0e4e4646d059d2a37f8d2c3956b3f773efc1c","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cc356e5be4e13ddaabf1c4d9a171b8407b4324294f84713134e868c1c8ef09d1","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6170b6fec1a23dedf88a5b804769aac1fae2ac0ec854b39e516b78aed786e9f6"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une projection de base pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires potentiels dans le contexte actuel des politiques.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) projects growth in the Canadian economy to remain sluggish through 2024. Restrictive monetary policy is expected to restrain growth in consumer spending in the first half of the year and to dampen residential investment over the course of this year. Inventory investment is projected to subtract from growth as businesses pullback on their stock building.","fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne demeure l\u00e9thargique tout au long de 2024. La politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive devrait limiter la croissance des d\u00e9penses de consommation au cours de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et freiner l\u2019investissement r\u00e9sidentiel tout au long de celle-ci. L\u2019investissement en stocks devrait freiner la croissance \u00e0 mesure que les entreprises reculent dans la constitution de leurs stocks."}},{"content":{"en":"As excess supply in the economy increases and commodity prices continue to weaken, PBO projects that Consumer price index (CPI) inflation will return to its 2 per cent target by the end of 2024. With CPI inflation on track to return to target later this year, we continue to expect the Bank of Canada to start lowering its policy rate in April.","fr":"Avec l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie et la baisse des prix des produits de base, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019inflation de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) reviendra \u00e0 sa cible de 2 % d\u2019ici la fin de 2024. L\u2019inflation de l\u2019IPC \u00e9tant en bonne voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible plus tard cette ann\u00e9e, nous nous attendons toujours \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada commence \u00e0 baisser son taux directeur en avril."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to rise to $46.8 billion (1.6 per cent of the Gross domestic product (GDP)) in 2023-24 from the $35.3 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) deficit recorded in 2022\u201123. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $16.9 billion (0.5 per cent of GDP) in 2028-29.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire augmente \u00e0 46,8 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB)) en 2023-2024 par rapport au d\u00e9ficit de 35,3 milliards de dollars (1,3 % du PIB) enregistr\u00e9 en 2022-2023. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 16,9 milliards de dollars (0,5 % du PIB) en 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to increase from its 2022-23 level of 41.7 per cent, reaching 42.4 per cent in 2023\u201124 and 42.5 per cent in 2024\u201125. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.2 per cent in 2028\u201129 but remain well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019\u201120.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB augmente par rapport \u00e0 son niveau de 41,7 % en 2022-2023 pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 42,4 % en 2023-2024 et 42,5 % en 2024-2025. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,2 % en 2028\u20112029, mais rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) to rise from 7.8 per cent in 2022\u201123 to 10.2 per cent in 2023\u201124. As the effective interest rate on debt edges higher in 2024\u201125, we project the debt service ratio to increase further and average 10.7 per cent through 2028\u201129\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les frais de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes totales) augmente, passant de 7,8 % en 2022-2023 \u00e0 10,2 % en 2023-2024. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat effectif sur la dette sera plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en 2024-2025, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que le ratio du service de la dette augmente encore et s\u2019\u00e9tablisse \u00e0 10,7 % en moyenne jusqu\u2019en 2028-2029, bien au-dessus du niveau plancher pr\u00e9pand\u00e9mique de 7,0 % en 2018-2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324027S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook \\textemdash March 2024},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324027S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res \\textemdash Mars 2024},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-017-S","is_published":"2023-10-13T12:57:11.000000Z","release_date":"2023-10-13T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-10-30T11:33:03.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-017-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 October 2023","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 octobre 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report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Following the contraction in real GDP in the second quarter, PBO projects the Canadian economy to stagnate in the second half of 2023. As the Bank of Canada maintains its restrictive monetary policy to restore price stability, we project that consumer spending will remain weak in the second half of this year and the first half of 2024.","fr":"Apr\u00e8s la contraction du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne stagnera au cours du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2023. Alors que la Banque du Canada maintient sa politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive afin de r\u00e9tablir la stabilit\u00e9 des prix, nous pr\u00e9voyons que les d\u00e9penses de consommation demeureront faibles au cours du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de cette ann\u00e9e et de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the Bank of Canada to hold the policy interest rate at 5 per cent through the first quarter of 2024. With CPI inflation on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we then expect the Bank to start lowering its policy rate in April 2024.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada maintienne le taux directeur \u00e0 5 % jusqu\u2019au premier trimestre de 2024. L\u2019inflation de l\u2019IPC \u00e9tant en bonne voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque commencera \u00e0 abaisser son taux directeur en avril 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"For the current fiscal year, 2023-24, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to rise to $46.5 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP). Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $8.2 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in 2028-29.","fr":"Pour l\u2019exercice financier en cours, soit 2023-2024, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire atteindra 46,5 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du PIB). En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 8,2 milliards de dollars (0,2 % du PIB) en 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 42.6 per cent in 2023 24. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 37.8 per cent in 2028-29 but remain above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit une augmentation du ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB de 42,6 % en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 37,8 % en 2028 2029, mais rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019 2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to tax revenues) under status quo policy will peak at 12.0 per cent in 2023-24 and then decline gradually to 11.0 per cent in 2028-29\u2014well above its pre-pandemic low of 8.3 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB projette que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les charges de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes fiscales), selon une politique de statu quo, culminera \u00e0 12,0 % en 2023 2024, puis diminuera progressivement pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 11,0 % en 2028 2029, soit bien au-dessus de son niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie, \u00e0 savoir 8,3 % en 2018 2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324017S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324017S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - octobre 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-016-S","is_published":"2023-10-12T12:57:06.000000Z","release_date":"2023-10-12T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-10-12T12:57:06.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-016-S","title_en":"Cost Estimate of a Single-payer Universal Drug Plan","title_fr":"Estimation des co\u00fbts d\u2019un r\u00e9gime d\u2019assurance-m\u00e9dicaments universel \u00e0 payeur unique","slug":"RP-2324-016-S--cost-estimate-single-payer-universal-drug-plan--estimation-couts-un-regime-assurance-medicaments-universel-payeur-unique","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-016-S--cost-estimate-single-payer-universal-drug-plan--estimation-couts-un-regime-assurance-medicaments-universel-payeur-unique","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-016-S--cost-estimate-single-payer-universal-drug-plan--estimation-couts-un-regime-assurance-medicaments-universel-payeur-unique"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-016-S--cost-estimate-single-payer-universal-drug-plan--estimation-couts-un-regime-assurance-medicaments-universel-payeur-unique","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-016-S--cost-estimate-single-payer-universal-drug-plan--estimation-couts-un-regime-assurance-medicaments-universel-payeur-unique"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/c4201c5cc0c9a162ff5f127e98992b64f3547048bf187de65bca2b399f3b9320"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/34dfaee85d91007ea0e0ecec31663832d594e49d28e921166db3162f52d7254c"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7e1bcc0e1f88d22dcb67127bde66f3f4d850d23536b5f49df408cb53685a9f29","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3261b0dba28e612c426387ef77c6e83a7ac6f8d68b4b48ef6a0fdc7bef1b277e","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ddc54f0ef8faf95dd2feec08b6f1d65835b403e44861cfc3e5750dfada26d1e1","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9b18f11027e8b563c6cd5729fb06d225a76bb93fc68ee9a2d7f005ed073a5e55","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7df42dfbba14837342aa0aaf377dd531cdfd9cb00f85308a31eb1f0e75523b4f","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9ec6050bc6af351d7e8c31e158b0e9329aff4d74593eda3062d5d377395573b7","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d50d6fd8eb7791ce9a03bac7da10ca0058b2e03989e89ce60c1bd108afdea668","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/91509ee392e034ca2517be44bc4073f527624034a7f9908a6859da398b6b6145"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/691e7ad3fc969ae0ebb1eab7faabcfd27267e69e5b8b00d7313391aa756a73e0","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fd46cd37c04b1efa9794bab3a2886f52f8fe130070d58469bd28187a0147843f","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9f9d1438ad2d62e53979632efe012e1100bcb0fcdd551b8e1e661f84b98d5e45","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/47f061c3a8ef3ba78c87fa1c5bebb599ed4e3a0deec4f4d49c44b4407301c5c8","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f9aa6cc1fdd137964813bdab5602db48a05d9af6a6449452509cbbf4b70facec","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/247013fc7db7b7fe886b8a35f5d49733cb67539acafe7f35f02c52fab19cef9b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f0a83c5de42ffbf032e236ebf28d3c38ab642fccfae03a96818e4c54ae0cd87f","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b805c13e6899d439536215e54410e25a1383789267a88a3990aa83d7ebec4022"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report estimates the total and incremental public cost of a single-payer universal drug plan\u2014 \u201cPharmacare\u201d\u2014over 2023-24 to 2027-28. The estimated cost reflects a national application of Quebec\u2019s R\u00e9gie de l\u2019assurance maladie du Qu\u00e9bec (RAMQ) formulary with universal access and a copayment scheme.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport estime les co\u00fbts publics totaux et diff\u00e9rentiels d\u2019un r\u00e9gime d\u2019assurance-m\u00e9dicaments universel \u00e0 payeur unique \u2013 l\u2019\u00ab\u2009assurance-m\u00e9dicaments\u2009\u00bb \u2013 pour la p\u00e9riode allant de 2023-2024 \u00e0 2027-2028. Le co\u00fbt estim\u00e9 refl\u00e8te une application \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale de la liste des m\u00e9dicaments assur\u00e9s de la R\u00e9gie de l\u2019assurance maladie du Qu\u00e9bec (RAMQ) avec un acc\u00e8s universel et un r\u00e9gime de contributions.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Upon the implementation of a single-payer universal drug plan based on Quebec\u2019s R\u00e9gie de l\u2019assurance maladie du Qu\u00e9bec (RAMQ) formulary\u2014 \u201cPharmacare\u201d\u2014we estimate the incremental cost to the public sector (that is federal and provincial governments combined) to be $11.2 billion in 2024-25, increasing to $13.4 billion in 2027-28.","fr":"Dans le cadre de la mise en \u0153uvre d\u2019un r\u00e9gime d\u2019assurance-m\u00e9dicaments universel \u00e0 payeur unique calqu\u00e9 sur la liste de m\u00e9dicaments assur\u00e9s de la R\u00e9gie de l\u2019assurance maladie du Qu\u00e9bec (RAMQ) \u2013 l\u2019\u00ab\u2009Assurance-m\u00e9dicaments\u2009\u00bb \u2013 nous estimons que le co\u00fbt additionel pour le secteur public (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire, les gouvernements f\u00e9d\u00e9ral et provinciaux ensemble), serait de 11,2 milliards de dollars en 2024-2025 et augmentera pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 13,4 milliards de dollars en 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"In terms of the economy as a whole, we estimate cost savings on drug expenditures of $1.4 billion in 2024-25, rising to $2.2 billion in 2027-28.","fr":"En ce qui concerne l\u0027\u00e9conomie dans son ensemble, nous estimons que les \u00e9conomies r\u00e9alis\u00e9es sur les d\u00e9penses de m\u00e9dicaments s\u0027\u00e9l\u00e8vent \u00e0 1,4 milliards de dollars en 2024-2025 et augmenteront pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 2,2 milliards de dollars en 2027-2028."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324016S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Busby, Carleigh},\n title={Cost Estimate of a Single-payer Universal Drug Plan},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324016S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Busby, Carleigh},\n title={Estimation des couts d\u2019un r\\\u0027{e}gime d\u2019assurance-m\\\u0027{e}dicaments universel \\`{a} payeur unique},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-011-S","is_published":"2023-07-27T12:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2023-07-27T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-09-19T18:08:03.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-011-S","title_en":"Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023","title_fr":"Rapport sur la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de 2023","slug":"RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/14112865d6961441f766fa6e8f511a29368a6a15a3e8b8445af18c7cbda6d632"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/141f168b00bd920bc9c6e23fa8192e335ec315ad6ab81a1311d298867ae44a28"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f5a6d162ca59b837a46677d33f93a808d448d23ce2f3d0f728a1b7615ca4c325","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b64905908e3cdb87a564f5d894fbe47a75d3c8b016f20e0591566ef8df799621","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d13ebfbc0b98705694fd02a04eff3b3ee7a5d8e9f49d050ff4cea132bdbed972","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06f22380d687d415721a031d2205907078627a6c93819aabb91ddb4ea46c7345","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3e543c446205fe491ea1a7a5f1597394f9c988b6ade37e61c5cf965b3aa39b6a","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7c0e5550bb823fd105884647233c025747cc6e69c71023211c12137b0759233","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2702f13fc68a6b62db3f6905fe58be6f048111855c0663fdfade4ca923f7aa79","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d9a2c6dfb4e772a996671d768061cd9ed59feb8cc09496488bc98207fe2a177b"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/17394f7f5b7d2cd2405e3a05d1082eb72400241c249bb030a32cabf60b3ac77e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1ecda173ac7eaaadda445b78990dab20fc050b7c65630f3d62d461a57a7fda53","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/908774ade4eeeff17628e025e84732f70148140d3beb90b5f55cc891c6b4cf0f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7b71afd96030c5a71fa6885b69081feae0cff58126658e6b4b95accc98f0b0b3","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d40754705857de30a699d201f37356fcabb00c65512f7987923cd34075fb92c1","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0b907eb1cceafb94d48d829eb11798bbecc24abf316b554c630ebcc6a049f8fe","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1f436a00db8d0634a5757f25182161be439d7df54a1d3ac0c2fcad73ba51c99d","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb38410c8893c2f09e0ade99c8fa497ca4fa62241ce6bd67f9858b59c5c75dfd"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides PBO\u2019s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.","abstract_fr":"Dans ce rapport, le DPB pr\u00e9sente son \u00e9valuation de la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re \u00e0 long terme du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, des administrations infranationales et des r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"From the perspective of the total general government sector, that is federal and subnational governments and public pension plans combined, current fiscal policy in Canada is sustainable over the long term. Relative to the size of the Canadian economy, total general government net debt is projected to decline steadily over the long term due to fiscal room at the federal level and to rising net asset positions in the public pension plans.","fr":"En ce qui concerne le secteur des administrations publiques consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un tout, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, les administrations infranationales et les r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux pris ensemble, la politique budg\u00e9taire actuelle au Canada est viable \u00e0 long terme. Par rapport \u00e0 la taille de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne, la dette publique g\u00e9n\u00e9rale nette devrait diminuer progressivement \u00e0 long terme en raison de la marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re au niveau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral et de l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la situation de l\u2019actif net des r\u00e9gimes de retraite publics."}},{"content":{"en":"Current fiscal policy at the federal level is sustainable over the long term. We estimate that the federal government could permanently increase spending or reduce taxes by 1.7 per cent of GDP ($49.5 billion in current dollars, growing in line with GDP thereafter) while maintaining fiscal sustainability.","fr":"La politique budg\u00e9taire f\u00e9d\u00e9rale actuelle est viable \u00e0 long terme. Nous estimons que le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral pourrait augmenter ses d\u00e9penses ou r\u00e9duire les imp\u00f4ts de 1,7 % du PIB (49,5 milliards de dollars en dollars courants, augmentant par la suite au rythme du PIB) tout en demeurant viable sur le plan budg\u00e9taire."}},{"content":{"en":"For the subnational government sector, which includes provincial-territorial, local and Indigenous governments, current fiscal policy is sustainable over the long term. Under current policy, projected subnational government revenues and program spending are sufficient to keep the subnational government net debt-to-GDP ratio below its 2022 level over the 75-year projection horizon.","fr":"Pour ce qui est des administrations infranationales, qui comprennent les administrations provinciales, territoriales, locales et autochtones, les politiques budg\u00e9taires actuelles sont viables \u00e0 long terme. Selon la politique actuelle, les revenus et les d\u00e9penses de programmes pr\u00e9vus des administrations infranationales sont suffisantes pour maintenir le ratio de la dette nette par rapport au PIB des administrations infranationales en dessous de son niveau de 2022 pour l\u2019horizon de 75 ans."}},{"content":{"en":"The current structure of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) is sustainable over the long term. Under the current structure of the plans, projected contributions and benefits are sufficient to ensure that the net asset-to-GDP position is above its 2022 value after 75 years.","fr":"La structure actuelle tant du R\u00e9gime de pensions du Canada (RPC) que du R\u00e9gime de rentes du Qu\u00e9bec (RRQ) est viable \u00e0 long terme. Avec la structure actuelle des r\u00e9gimes, les cotisations et les prestations pr\u00e9vues sont suffisantes pour garantir que la position nette de l\u2019actif par rapport au PIB est sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 sa valeur de 2022 apr\u00e8s 75 ans."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324011S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324011S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Rapport sur la viabilit\\\u0027{e} financi\\`{e}re de 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} 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report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Following a stronger-than-expected performance in the second half of 2022, PBO projects the Canadian economy to stagnate through 2023. As the tightening of monetary policy takes hold, we expect a further decline in residential investment and weakness in consumer spending in the first half of this year.","fr":"Apr\u00e8s que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne ait affich\u00e9 une performance plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu lors du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de 2022, le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle stagne jusqu\u2019en 2023. \u00c0 mesure que le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire se concr\u00e9tise, nous pr\u00e9voyons de nouvelle baisse de l\u2019investissement r\u00e9sidentiel et une faiblesse des d\u00e9penses de consommation au cours de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the Bank of Canada to maintain its \u201cpause\u201d, holding the policy interest rate at 4.5 per cent, through December of this year. With CPI inflation solidly on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we then expect the Bank to start lowering its policy rate in January 2024, returning the rate to its estimated neutral level of 2.5 per cent in December 2024.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada observe sa \u00ab\u2009pause\u2009\u00bb, en maintenant le taux directeur \u00e0 4,5 % jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin du mois de d\u00e9cembre de cette ann\u00e9e. Puisque l\u2019inflation de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) est en voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque commencera \u00e0 r\u00e9duire son taux directeur en janvier 2024, puis le ram\u00e8nera \u00e0 son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 de 2,5 % en d\u00e9cembre 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"For the current fiscal year, 2022-23, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to be $36.5 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to increase to $43.1 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) in 2023-24 before resuming its downward trajectory, falling to $8.7 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP) in 2027-28.","fr":"Pour l\u2019exercice en cours de 2022-2023, le DPB pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 36,5 milliards de dollars (1,3 % du PIB) selon une politique de statu quo. En supposant qu\u2019il n\u2019y ait pas de nouvelles mesures et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit devrait augmenter \u00e0 43,1 milliards de dollars (1,5 % du PIB) en 2023-2024 avant de reprendre sa trajectoire descendante, chutant \u00e0 8,7 milliards de dollars (0,3 % du PIB) en 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Under status quo policy, PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to decline to 41.8 per cent in 2022-23 and then to temporarily rise to 42.2 per cent in 2023-24. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 38.1 per cent in 2027-28 but remain above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Selon une politique de statu quo, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB diminuera \u00e0 41,8 % en 2022-2023, puis qu\u2019il remontera temporairement \u00e0 42,2 % en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait diminuer \u00e0 38,1 % en 2027-2028. Cependant, il devrait rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau pr\u00e9-pand\u00e9mique, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to tax revenues) under status quo policy will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2023-24 and then decline gradually to 10.3 per cent in 2027-28\u2014two percentage points above its pre-pandemic low of 8.3 per cent in 2018 19.","fr":"Le DPB projette que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les charges de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes fiscales) culminera \u00e0 11,5 % en 2023-2024 selon une politique de statu quo. Ensuite, il diminuera progressivement pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 10,3 % en 2027-2028, soit deux points de pourcentage de plus que le niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie, \u00e0 savoir 8,3 % en 2018 2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223025S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook \\textemdash March 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223025S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res \\textemdash Mars 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2223-023-S","is_published":"2023-02-16T14:03:50.000000Z","release_date":"2023-02-16T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-02-17T14:44:22.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-023-S","title_en":"Federal Program Spending on Housing in 2022","title_fr":"D\u00e9penses f\u00e9d\u00e9rales de programmes consacr\u00e9es au logement en 2022","slug":"RP-2223-023-S--federal-program-spending-housing-in-2022--depenses-federales-programmes-consacrees-logement-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-023-S--federal-program-spending-housing-in-2022--depenses-federales-programmes-consacrees-logement-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-023-S--federal-program-spending-housing-in-2022--depenses-federales-programmes-consacrees-logement-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-023-S--federal-program-spending-housing-in-2022--depenses-federales-programmes-consacrees-logement-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-023-S--federal-program-spending-housing-in-2022--depenses-federales-programmes-consacrees-logement-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/2bde3f9189ca47e9fa2aaaf0fd141a1561e77b5c5d724f8f0c4ee41e329be0c8"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/3cc95a6f274c439c31f11cfcc053a6d05e24e55f4e209ab57f20c583227772ff"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/939b053364e99fcfec90532e22d2c3865ff089bd426a0cd3f7938287e963b5fe","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/22436ef0d0da5ccd00d54c753dfdb32a873363e57faaacb10a2a0071448f6a30","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/faeef54774ab6f9b5021f26ab79731936234bc5a7915fd854af5e7c73edf527c","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/472ec57792678efac23972955af5e4e555eca35a539b1ef26abf073657e36c82","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c6057f9545318f5b83f5122b175f8aabaff1118840b723b062fd67216f5fc8d4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb95ec1d25f03946d7cc9d284afd48e672c1f61d16f4c72942b2018c351dc7ec","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9a39e3712a8ed9a5769dc334935c5ab784a364cb2c4f84bbea4b5c7e78426d85","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/23f07500589082a3b05fdd7e6fb9fbc9691d486beff6d83b049e03d5d2be988a"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7093383c3c1f023a62782e39d0cb0a75ecedff8d2b2aaceb67e74b0f7215ad6f","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ebccc839a1a12537886b787a43286181641a42c20a0f1440a78e0478f6493b09","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e3497f0a3a86514ba16003f97438504344df0475465b971e6d82ca8f9115e76e","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/aa5968f9ccfe7b15b6cc89146df07c2462928e39b7b7ea49e43d4ff87aec49de","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/15e2406610e6132128f64b014f4e37d89ea52ca47506f185be2ff6ab21bf7741","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c1689b16db6fbf9f4d0361bf92c1db5733d162ad2cc6a9aecdf231654a6bf3cc","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b7185fff228b572f38cd54b7500073766162d484910cb915e3b68d57e7ed2fde","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ee9496f1d6e749c5d804bc7503b993a227ee1e649c9051f964a631de2073825b"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"In response to interest from several Members of Parliament, this self-initiated report is intended to provide an update on spending and results of federal program spending on housing affordability.","abstract_fr":"L\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat manifest\u00e9 par plusieurs d\u00e9put\u00e9s a incit\u00e9 le DPB \u00e0 produire ce rapport de sa propre initiative afin de faire le point sur les d\u00e9penses f\u00e9d\u00e9rales de programmes consacr\u00e9es au logement abordable et sur les r\u00e9sultats obtenus.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The government\u2019s strategy to address housing affordability is part of the National Housing Strategy (NHS). The government has announced funding for the NHS over the 2018-19 to 2028-29 period of $82+ billion. PBO estimates this spending is closer to $89 billion. Roughly $7.8 billion is from new spending announced in Budget 2022 and the 2022 Fall Economic Statement. \n\nPBO highlights that not all of the $89 billion is federal spending and only a fraction of that comes at a net fiscal cost. As well, a portion is not new spending, but part of spending for pre-existing programs slated to expire over the next several years.","fr":"La strat\u00e9gie adopt\u00e9e par le gouvernement pour favoriser le logement abordable s\u2019inscrit dans le cadre de la Strat\u00e9gie nationale sur le logement (SNL). Le gouvernement avait annonc\u00e9 l\u2019octroi de 82 milliards de dollars \u00e0 la SNL pour la p\u00e9riode de 2018-2019 \u00e0 2028-2029. D\u2019apr\u00e8s les estimations du DPB, ces d\u00e9penses s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vent plut\u00f4t \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 89 milliards de dollars. De cette somme, environ 7,8 milliards de dollars correspondent \u00e0 de nouvelles d\u00e9penses annonc\u00e9es dans le budget de 2022 et l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2022.\n\nLe DPB fait remarquer que le montant de 89 milliards de dollars ne s\u2019agit pas uniquement de d\u00e9penses f\u00e9d\u00e9rales et que seule une fraction de ces d\u00e9penses comporte un co\u00fbt budg\u00e9taire net. De plus, une part n\u2019est pas constitu\u00e9e de nouvelles d\u00e9penses, mais fait partie des d\u00e9penses pr\u00e9vues dans le cadre de programmes pr\u00e9existants qui prendront fin au cours des prochaines ann\u00e9es."}},{"content":{"en":"While federal investments in addressing affordable housing and homelessness have increased, so too has the cost of residential construction, reducing the real purchasing power of federal spending.","fr":"Bien que les investissements f\u00e9d\u00e9raux dans le logement abordable et la lutte contre l\u2019itin\u00e9rance soient en hausse, le co\u00fbt de la construction de logements a augment\u00e9 aussi, ce qui r\u00e9duit le pouvoir d\u2019achat r\u00e9el des d\u00e9penses f\u00e9d\u00e9rales."}},{"content":{"en":"Across specific programs, there is no standard definition of affordability. Certain definitions can lead to the construction of units presented as \u201caffordable\u201d, but which in reality may require households to devote more than 30 per cent of their income to housing.","fr":"Aucune d\u00e9finition standard de l\u2019abordabilit\u00e9 n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9tablie pour les diff\u00e9rents programmes. Certaines d\u00e9finitions peuvent donner lieu \u00e0 la construction de logements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s comme \u00e9tant \u00ab abordables \u00bb, alors que les m\u00e9nages pourraient en fait devoir y consacrer plus de 30 % de leur revenu."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223023S,\n author={Busby, Carleigh and Barkova, Lisa},\n title={Federal Program Spending on Housing in 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223023S,\n author={Busby, Carleigh and Barkova, Lisa},\n title={D\\\u0027{e}penses f\\\u0027{e}d\\\u0027{e}rales de programmes consacr\\\u0027{e}es au logement en 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"LEG-2223-021-S","is_published":"2022-11-28T13:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2022-11-28T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-02-07T19:24:28.000000Z","type":"LEG","internal_id":"LEG-2223-021-S","title_en":"Doubling of First Time Homebuyers\u0027 Tax Credit","title_fr":"Multiplication par deux du cr\u00e9dit d\u2019imp\u00f4t pour l\u2019achat d\u2019une premi\u00e8re habitation","slug":"LEG-2223-021-S--doubling-first-time-homebuyers-tax-credit--multiplication-deux-credit-impot-achat-une-premiere-habitation","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2223-021-S--doubling-first-time-homebuyers-tax-credit--multiplication-deux-credit-impot-achat-une-premiere-habitation","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LEG-2223-021-S--doubling-first-time-homebuyers-tax-credit--multiplication-deux-credit-impot-achat-une-premiere-habitation"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2223-021-S--doubling-first-time-homebuyers-tax-credit--multiplication-deux-credit-impot-achat-une-premiere-habitation","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LEG-2223-021-S--doubling-first-time-homebuyers-tax-credit--multiplication-deux-credit-impot-achat-une-premiere-habitation"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/ed786c8d0a7613eacb5191c97875240b5a6629a9c889b384a931a7e86a4528cb"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/119bee6baf62227cd71518563835cdbcb678e533de09a018d19c055f8f337f8a"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/01c6cd6da4b4d6ae6b5ffa58708025ed25ce52cfdeea2f9ff23be304fdbe8830","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c06435c1871e2b2d5d0241466907baaa545e2e34524195177b95540ef9341f16","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3be87a5b65e2d7a9f1634de719fc9d6cf848f139ff46ea4d009684f06e82453a","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/26440ff738fd3be9757ee9330cc55454dd099b51a57fcc2cfa4826fbc22355e4","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/806eaccd034df8f2454c8d25f29c705eafde576dbca3e7f8c0d376316b21afd9","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b06d538cd771d9ee272c7d4c803445317b909ffbd695dd95f17125a36cc903e9","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/19039585d36fba9ebfe5d9c8230e02a1c617829aa36c79e41cc9aecd3c8a45e4","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/30da7af349f12350ffc08ee1416f813321ee9d5045720aacf6c4853d0d5e14cc"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/92aabb5acf0a990c061e62478e993df72b4ea0b9d682d32a24b52655983d7d0e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b10129844d249e31b302bc263b5a17e9d9df3c2a20c8a54b060f226999f0cb98","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/80662a37cd933fdab78bb49afa948c729d0a9b7bb353ca94fdf1b32af4afed61","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ecbb6f77bf56eceacf37bb10ffd454fcf7ad0644d3147b376b6b194a00aa5cff","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/26ef11125a9695a2da48b2d3f49f7693b37da52f86eb6f0171fc1418a9854ec4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0eeb80690c82539246277a357d1c2b3c79012a4121d15680c03b03f3d90bbf28","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/78208b8b989d459a04498e488f2774d0ea6d82b769395a401bf632d94b8ef0ac","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5a021107b4400cbbec9deeba243a91daf0476ea1b3adc8c4a21996cf777a4c14"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This bill proposes doubling the First Time Homebuyer\u2019s Tax Credit, increasing the non-refundable tax credit amount from $5,000 to $10,000. This measure will apply to homes purchased on or after January 1st, 2022.\n\nThe PBO estimates that the doubling of First Time Homebuyers\u0027 Tax Credit will reduce federal income tax revenues by approximately $115 million in 2022-23 for a total of 585 million over the next 5 years.","abstract_fr":"Le projet de loi propose de doubler le cr\u00e9dit d\u2019imp\u00f4t pour l\u2019achat d\u2019une premi\u00e8re habitation; ainsi le plafond de cette mesure passera de 5 000 \u00e0 10 000 $. Le cr\u00e9dit d\u2019imp\u00f4t s\u2019appliquera aux habitations achet\u00e9es \u00e0 compter du 1er janvier 2022.\n\nLe DPB estime que la multiplication par deux du cr\u00e9dit d\u2019imp\u00f4t pour l\u2019achat d\u2019une premi\u00e8re habitation fera baisser les recettes fiscales g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es par l\u2019imp\u00f4t sur le revenu f\u00e9d\u00e9ral d\u2019environ 115 millions en 2022-2023 pour atteindre un total de 585 millions de dollars au cours des cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es.","highlights":[]},"bills":[{"id":403,"created_at":"2022-11-04T14:00:12-04:00","updated_at":"2023-02-07T16:19:20-05:00","legisid":"44_1_C-32","parliament":44,"session":1,"prefix":"C","number":32,"title_en":"An Act to implement certain provisions of the fall economic statement tabled in Parliament on November 3, 2022 and certain provisions of the budget tabled in Parliament on April 7, 2022","title_fr":"Loi portant ex\u00e9cution de certaines dispositions de l\u0027\u00e9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique 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report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Since the beginning of March, the Bank of Canada has increased its policy rate by a total of 300 basis points. We expect the Bank to increase its policy rate further, reaching 4 per cent by the end of this year. With the tightening of monetary policy, PBO projects real GDP growth in Canada to slow considerably in the second half of 2022 and remain weak through 2023.","fr":"Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois de mars, la Banque du Canada a relev\u00e9 son taux directeur de 300 points de base au total et on peut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle le rel\u00e8ve encore pour qu\u2019il atteigne 4 % d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Avec le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire, le DPB pr\u00e9voit un net ralentissement de la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el du Canada pendant la seconde moiti\u00e9 de 2022 et une faible croissance tout au long de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"As supply constraints ease and commodity prices recede from elevated levels in the first half of 2022, softer demand in 2023 is expected to contribute to sustained reductions in CPI inflation. With CPI inflation solidly on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we expect the Bank of Canada to start lowering its policy interest rate in late 2023.","fr":"Les difficult\u00e9s d\u2019approvisionnement s\u2019estompant et le cours des produits de base baissant par rapport aux niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s dans la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de 2022, le fl\u00e9chissement de la demande en 2023 devrait contribuer \u00e0 la baisse continue de l\u2019inflation des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC). Celle-ci \u00e9tant alors en tr\u00e8s bonne voie pour revenir \u00e0 la cible de 2 %, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada commence \u00e0 baisser son taux directeur \u00e0 la fin de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"In the absence of final financial results for the past fiscal year, PBO estimates that there was a budgetary deficit of $97.0 billion (3.9 per cent of GDP) in 2021-22. For the current fiscal year 2022-23, PBO projects the deficit to decline to $25.8 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy.","fr":"En l\u2019absence de r\u00e9sultats financiers d\u00e9finitifs pour le dernier exercice, le DPB estime que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire pour 2021-2022 s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vait \u00e0 97 milliards de dollars (3,9 % du PIB). Pour l\u2019exercice en cours, 2022-2023, il devrait revenir \u00e0 25,8 milliards de dollars (0,9 % du PIB), si la politique demeure inchang\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to decline further, reaching $3.1 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in 2027-28, as growth in tax revenue tracks gains in nominal GDP and growth in program spending remains constrained.","fr":"En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne sera introduite et que les mesures temporaires actuelles prendront fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait continuer de baisser pour atteindre 3,1 milliards de dollars (0,1 % du PIB) en 2027-2028, la croissance des recettes fiscales suivant la hausse du PIB nominal et l\u2019augmentation des d\u00e9penses de programmes restant limit\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to continue to decline from its peak in 2020-21, gradually reaching 36.2 per cent in 2027-28, but remain above its pre-pandemic level. We project the debt service ratio (public debt charges relative to tax revenues) will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2024-25 and then decline gradually, reaching 10.9 per cent in 2027-28.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB continuera de baisser par rapport au pic atteint en 2020-2021 pour revenir graduellement \u00e0 36,2 % en 2027-2028, mais qu\u2019il restera sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il \u00e9tait avant la pand\u00e9mie. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes fiscales) atteindra 11,5 % en 2024-2025, avant de redescendre graduellement \u00e0 10,9 % en 2027-2028."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223018S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223018S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Octobre 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}