[{"label":"Home","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en"},{"label":"Team","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}},{"label":"Marianne Laurin","url":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/staff--equipe\/marianne-laurin","section":{"id":1,"title_en":"About","title_fr":"\u00c0 propos"}}]

Marianne Laurin

Analyst

Marianne Laurin is an economic analyst with the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. She holds a master’s degree in applied economics as well as an honours degree in applied economics and international affairs from HEC Montréal.

Prior to joining the OPBO, she worked as a research assistant at HEC Montréal’s Retirement and Savings Institute.

Latest publications

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Restrictive monetary policy is expected to restrain growth in consumer spending in the first half of the year and to dampen residential investment over the course of this year. Inventory investment is projected to subtract from growth as businesses pullback on their stock building.","fr":"Le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne demeure l\u00e9thargique tout au long de 2024. La politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive devrait limiter la croissance des d\u00e9penses de consommation au cours de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et freiner l\u2019investissement r\u00e9sidentiel tout au long de celle-ci. L\u2019investissement en stocks devrait freiner la croissance \u00e0 mesure que les entreprises reculent dans la constitution de leurs stocks."}},{"content":{"en":"As excess supply in the economy increases and commodity prices continue to weaken, PBO projects that Consumer price index (CPI) inflation will return to its 2 per cent target by the end of 2024. With CPI inflation on track to return to target later this year, we continue to expect the Bank of Canada to start lowering its policy rate in April.","fr":"Avec l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie et la baisse des prix des produits de base, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019inflation de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) reviendra \u00e0 sa cible de 2 % d\u2019ici la fin de 2024. L\u2019inflation de l\u2019IPC \u00e9tant en bonne voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible plus tard cette ann\u00e9e, nous nous attendons toujours \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada commence \u00e0 baisser son taux directeur en avril."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to rise to $46.8 billion (1.6 per cent of the Gross domestic product (GDP)) in 2023-24 from the $35.3 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) deficit recorded in 2022\u201123. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $16.9 billion (0.5 per cent of GDP) in 2028-29.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire augmente \u00e0 46,8 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB)) en 2023-2024 par rapport au d\u00e9ficit de 35,3 milliards de dollars (1,3 % du PIB) enregistr\u00e9 en 2022-2023. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 16,9 milliards de dollars (0,5 % du PIB) en 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to increase from its 2022-23 level of 41.7 per cent, reaching 42.4 per cent in 2023\u201124 and 42.5 per cent in 2024\u201125. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.2 per cent in 2028\u201129 but remain well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019\u201120.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB augmente par rapport \u00e0 son niveau de 41,7 % en 2022-2023 pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 42,4 % en 2023-2024 et 42,5 % en 2024-2025. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,2 % en 2028\u20112029, mais rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) to rise from 7.8 per cent in 2022\u201123 to 10.2 per cent in 2023\u201124. As the effective interest rate on debt edges higher in 2024\u201125, we project the debt service ratio to increase further and average 10.7 per cent through 2028\u201129\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les frais de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes totales) augmente, passant de 7,8 % en 2022-2023 \u00e0 10,2 % en 2023-2024. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat effectif sur la dette sera plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en 2024-2025, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que le ratio du service de la dette augmente encore et s\u2019\u00e9tablisse \u00e0 10,7 % en moyenne jusqu\u2019en 2028-2029, bien au-dessus du niveau plancher pr\u00e9pand\u00e9mique de 7,0 % en 2018-2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324027S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook \\textemdash March 2024},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324027S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res \\textemdash Mars 2024},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

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La loi abolirait la TPS \u00e0 payer sur : a) les frais, droits ou taxes impos\u00e9s en application de la Loi sur la tarification de la pollution caus\u00e9e par les gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, tels que la redevance sur les combustibles et le syst\u00e8me de tarification fond\u00e9 sur le rendement (STFR); b) tout pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement provincial impos\u00e9 relativement au carbone, comme le syst\u00e8me de plafonnement et d\u2019\u00e9change de droits d\u2019\u00e9mission au Qu\u00e9bec ou la taxe sur le carbone en Colombie-Britannique.","highlights":[]},"bills":[{"id":508,"created_at":"2023-10-05T06:00:08-04:00","updated_at":"2024-01-23T08:57:18-05:00","legisid":"44_1_C-358","parliament":44,"session":1,"prefix":"C","number":358,"title_en":"An Act to amend the Excise Tax Act (carbon pollution pricing)","title_fr":"Loi modifiant la Loi sur la taxe d\u2019accise (tarification de la pollution par le carbone)","bill_num":"C-358","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/bills--projets-de-loi\/44-1\/C-358","legisinfo":"https:\/\/www.parl.ca\/legisinfo\/en\/bill\/44-1\/c-358"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/bills--projets-de-loi\/44-1\/C-358","legisinfo":"https:\/\/www.parl.ca\/LegisInfo\/fr\/projet-de-loi\/44-1\/c-358"}},"pivot":{"publication_id":780,"bill_id":508}}],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-LEG2324019S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne},\n title={Eliminating the Goods and Services Tax in respect of carbon pricing},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-LEG2324019S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne},\n title={\\\u0027{E}limination de la taxe sur les produits et services relativement \\`{a} la tarification du carbone},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"LEG-2324-015-S","is_published":"2023-11-17T13:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2023-11-17T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-11-17T13:57:04.000000Z","type":"LEG","internal_id":"LEG-2324-015-S","title_en":"Pausing the fuel charge on heating oil and doubling the rural top-up rate for fuel charge rebates","title_fr":"Suspension de la redevance sur les combustibles s\u2019appliquant au mazout de chauffage et doublement du taux du suppl\u00e9ment pour les communaut\u00e9s rurales sur les remises de la redevance sur les 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note contains the costing of two measures announced by the Government on October 26, that is pausing the fuel charge on deliveries of heating oil and doubling the rural top-up rate for fuel charge rebates.","abstract_fr":"Cette note contient l\u2019estimation de co\u00fbt de deux mesures annonc\u00e9es par le gouvernement le 26 octobre, soit la suspension de l\u2019application de la redevance sur les combustibles pour les livraisons de mazout de chauffage et le doublement du taux de suppl\u00e9ment pour les communaut\u00e9s rurales sur les remises issues de la redevance sur les combustibles.","highlights":[]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-LEG2324015S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne},\n title={Pausing the fuel charge on heating oil and doubling the rural top-up rate for fuel charge rebates},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-LEG2324015S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne},\n title={Suspension de la redevance sur les combustibles s\u2019appliquant au mazout de chauffage et doublement du taux du suppl\\\u0027{e}ment pour les communaut\\\u0027{e}s rurales sur les remises de la redevance sur les combustibles},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

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As the Bank of Canada maintains its restrictive monetary policy to restore price stability, we project that consumer spending will remain weak in the second half of this year and the first half of 2024.","fr":"Apr\u00e8s la contraction du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne stagnera au cours du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2023. Alors que la Banque du Canada maintient sa politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive afin de r\u00e9tablir la stabilit\u00e9 des prix, nous pr\u00e9voyons que les d\u00e9penses de consommation demeureront faibles au cours du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de cette ann\u00e9e et de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the Bank of Canada to hold the policy interest rate at 5 per cent through the first quarter of 2024. With CPI inflation on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we then expect the Bank to start lowering its policy rate in April 2024.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada maintienne le taux directeur \u00e0 5 % jusqu\u2019au premier trimestre de 2024. L\u2019inflation de l\u2019IPC \u00e9tant en bonne voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque commencera \u00e0 abaisser son taux directeur en avril 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"For the current fiscal year, 2023-24, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to rise to $46.5 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP). Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $8.2 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in 2028-29.","fr":"Pour l\u2019exercice financier en cours, soit 2023-2024, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire atteindra 46,5 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du PIB). En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 8,2 milliards de dollars (0,2 % du PIB) en 2028-2029."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 42.6 per cent in 2023 24. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 37.8 per cent in 2028-29 but remain above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit une augmentation du ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB de 42,6 % en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 37,8 % en 2028 2029, mais rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019 2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to tax revenues) under status quo policy will peak at 12.0 per cent in 2023-24 and then decline gradually to 11.0 per cent in 2028-29\u2014well above its pre-pandemic low of 8.3 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB projette que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les charges de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes fiscales), selon une politique de statu quo, culminera \u00e0 12,0 % en 2023 2024, puis diminuera progressivement pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 11,0 % en 2028 2029, soit bien au-dessus de son niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie, \u00e0 savoir 8,3 % en 2018 2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324017S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324017S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - octobre 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"RP-2324-011-S","is_published":"2023-07-27T12:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2023-07-27T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-09-19T18:08:03.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-011-S","title_en":"Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023","title_fr":"Rapport sur la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de 2023","slug":"RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-011-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2023--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2023"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/14112865d6961441f766fa6e8f511a29368a6a15a3e8b8445af18c7cbda6d632"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/141f168b00bd920bc9c6e23fa8192e335ec315ad6ab81a1311d298867ae44a28"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f5a6d162ca59b837a46677d33f93a808d448d23ce2f3d0f728a1b7615ca4c325","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b64905908e3cdb87a564f5d894fbe47a75d3c8b016f20e0591566ef8df799621","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d13ebfbc0b98705694fd02a04eff3b3ee7a5d8e9f49d050ff4cea132bdbed972","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06f22380d687d415721a031d2205907078627a6c93819aabb91ddb4ea46c7345","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3e543c446205fe491ea1a7a5f1597394f9c988b6ade37e61c5cf965b3aa39b6a","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7c0e5550bb823fd105884647233c025747cc6e69c71023211c12137b0759233","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2702f13fc68a6b62db3f6905fe58be6f048111855c0663fdfade4ca923f7aa79","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d9a2c6dfb4e772a996671d768061cd9ed59feb8cc09496488bc98207fe2a177b"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/17394f7f5b7d2cd2405e3a05d1082eb72400241c249bb030a32cabf60b3ac77e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1ecda173ac7eaaadda445b78990dab20fc050b7c65630f3d62d461a57a7fda53","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/908774ade4eeeff17628e025e84732f70148140d3beb90b5f55cc891c6b4cf0f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7b71afd96030c5a71fa6885b69081feae0cff58126658e6b4b95accc98f0b0b3","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d40754705857de30a699d201f37356fcabb00c65512f7987923cd34075fb92c1","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0b907eb1cceafb94d48d829eb11798bbecc24abf316b554c630ebcc6a049f8fe","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1f436a00db8d0634a5757f25182161be439d7df54a1d3ac0c2fcad73ba51c99d","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb38410c8893c2f09e0ade99c8fa497ca4fa62241ce6bd67f9858b59c5c75dfd"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides PBO\u2019s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.","abstract_fr":"Dans ce rapport, le DPB pr\u00e9sente son \u00e9valuation de la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re \u00e0 long terme du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, des administrations infranationales et des r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"From the perspective of the total general government sector, that is federal and subnational governments and public pension plans combined, current fiscal policy in Canada is sustainable over the long term. Relative to the size of the Canadian economy, total general government net debt is projected to decline steadily over the long term due to fiscal room at the federal level and to rising net asset positions in the public pension plans.","fr":"En ce qui concerne le secteur des administrations publiques consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un tout, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, les administrations infranationales et les r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux pris ensemble, la politique budg\u00e9taire actuelle au Canada est viable \u00e0 long terme. Par rapport \u00e0 la taille de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne, la dette publique g\u00e9n\u00e9rale nette devrait diminuer progressivement \u00e0 long terme en raison de la marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re au niveau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral et de l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la situation de l\u2019actif net des r\u00e9gimes de retraite publics."}},{"content":{"en":"Current fiscal policy at the federal level is sustainable over the long term. We estimate that the federal government could permanently increase spending or reduce taxes by 1.7 per cent of GDP ($49.5 billion in current dollars, growing in line with GDP thereafter) while maintaining fiscal sustainability.","fr":"La politique budg\u00e9taire f\u00e9d\u00e9rale actuelle est viable \u00e0 long terme. Nous estimons que le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral pourrait augmenter ses d\u00e9penses ou r\u00e9duire les imp\u00f4ts de 1,7 % du PIB (49,5 milliards de dollars en dollars courants, augmentant par la suite au rythme du PIB) tout en demeurant viable sur le plan budg\u00e9taire."}},{"content":{"en":"For the subnational government sector, which includes provincial-territorial, local and Indigenous governments, current fiscal policy is sustainable over the long term. Under current policy, projected subnational government revenues and program spending are sufficient to keep the subnational government net debt-to-GDP ratio below its 2022 level over the 75-year projection horizon.","fr":"Pour ce qui est des administrations infranationales, qui comprennent les administrations provinciales, territoriales, locales et autochtones, les politiques budg\u00e9taires actuelles sont viables \u00e0 long terme. Selon la politique actuelle, les revenus et les d\u00e9penses de programmes pr\u00e9vus des administrations infranationales sont suffisantes pour maintenir le ratio de la dette nette par rapport au PIB des administrations infranationales en dessous de son niveau de 2022 pour l\u2019horizon de 75 ans."}},{"content":{"en":"The current structure of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) is sustainable over the long term. Under the current structure of the plans, projected contributions and benefits are sufficient to ensure that the net asset-to-GDP position is above its 2022 value after 75 years.","fr":"La structure actuelle tant du R\u00e9gime de pensions du Canada (RPC) que du R\u00e9gime de rentes du Qu\u00e9bec (RRQ) est viable \u00e0 long terme. Avec la structure actuelle des r\u00e9gimes, les cotisations et les prestations pr\u00e9vues sont suffisantes pour garantir que la position nette de l\u2019actif par rapport au PIB est sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 sa valeur de 2022 apr\u00e8s 75 ans."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324011S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324011S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Nicol, Caroline},\n title={Rapport sur la viabilit\\\u0027{e} financi\\`{e}re de 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"RP-2324-004-S","is_published":"2023-05-18T12:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2023-05-18T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-05-18T16:34:04.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2324-004-S","title_en":"A Distributional Analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations","title_fr":"Analyse distributive du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres","slug":"RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-004-S--distributional-analysis-clean-fuel-regulations--analyse-distributive-reglement-combustibles-propres"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/e884599e101a53a3388d8c69884637f349b215fa483ca0089301ecb897da02b1"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/c7503c62a679d722ee6e443d309a86de395ac92a3ae238164c90141698d33202"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/53b337aecf5fe95d429aa98a2b7d3680d6dcab74eff180d6a1516e124d7dbae1","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6d83eb94ae4c7de71b61e2fb5a867b72b24c7d16b29a021d591d698ed8974bb3","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6413d6221bb93183a27e45a596792f81bb87e22616eba09343bcb0d6ed0656c1","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5fe5853c4feab2a1ee21e0ca5c03b48119dc94c61be31caf213f4ca32908c8d2","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/220c15f4e4dc37527a0e91324af086dd6337a8cd26cf16570ace9405f7359a3d","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/57fd1d292ac51d4c6265d5428437f00c6f3e50ed58248acefc42590f8b9e3c2a","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d840a8f1715ad48d359f92a2640d35ab06b4409b0d42765f242485b8e148ca8e","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2ad1800901f276669ea6500f7c4f5ddba85621821399eff096e3a0fe112f8bc3"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8dac949c1533b36ff5b1d241c7444b5a11011e9f918388e0d14e17be8ab8738f","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5b2e36c26bc1a4dd9e49b26264eb6750a391ca37812dbe70822c9eb207363afa","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f65b0a135e8b751619fdf150e3bf7d01a43b348b1d0021d69fce81da6b3644a5","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8d0733478a592fbf44a8f7889132b379d09addfce24734fa325f37233ffbb215","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fdd28eadf2a8471b5f71bf95a78276e47a011c7fa0c44a24cd54b6c59d04c444","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0118e89c94c35b14ba3cfd6828dd3d200556beffec13f04194b1ccf47bc4032f","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/92c435cd052789f5b39c1fbac228236a79060b510c58d3a417e94d87a00ef06a","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/151a668b134f18e08696652cb7147ba845f5518531f1fa9e22e8d78f5f0630b5"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a distributional analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations that will require reductions in the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel used in Canada.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une analyse distributive du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres qui exigera de r\u00e9duire l\u2019intensit\u00e9 carbone de l\u2019essence et du diesel utilis\u00e9s au Canada.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Relative to household disposable income, PBO results show that the Clean Fuel Regulations are broadly regressive. That is, the cost to lower income households represents a larger share of their disposable income compared to higher income households.","fr":"Par rapport au revenu disponible des m\u00e9nages, les r\u00e9sultats du DPB indiquent que le R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement r\u00e9gressif. Autrement dit, le co\u00fbt pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 faible revenu repr\u00e9sente une proportion plus importante de leur revenu disponible que pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"At the national level, in 2030, the cost of the Clean Fuel Regulations to households ranges from 0.62 per cent of disposable income (or $231) for lower income households to 0.35 per cent of disposable income (or $1,008) for higher income households.","fr":"\u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale, en 2030, le co\u00fbt du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres pour les m\u00e9nages va de 0,62 % du revenu disponible (ou 231 $) pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 faible revenu \u00e0 0,35 % du revenu disponible (ou 1 008 $) pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"Relative to disposable income, the cost of the Clean Fuel Regulations to the average household in 2030 is the highest in Saskatchewan (0.87 per cent, or $1,117), Alberta (0.80 per cent, or $1,157) and Newfoundland and Labrador (0.80 per cent, or $850), reflecting the higher fossil fuel intensity of their economies.","fr":"Par rapport au revenu disponible, c\u2019est en Saskatchewan (0,87 % ou 1 117 $), en Alberta (0,80 % ou 1 157 $) et \u00e0 Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador (0,80 % ou 850 $) que le co\u00fbt du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres pour le m\u00e9nage moyen en 2030 est le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, ce qui refl\u00e8te l\u2019intensit\u00e9 des combustibles fossiles plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e de leurs \u00e9conomies."}},{"content":{"en":"Relative to disposable income, the cost of the Clean Fuel Regulations to the average household in 2030 is the lowest in British Columbia (0.28 per cent, or $384), reflecting the relatively muted impact on real GDP. That said, the cost to the average household in Ontario (0.35 per cent, or $495) and Quebec (0.39 per cent, or $436) is only modestly larger.","fr":"Par rapport au revenu disponible, c\u2019est en Colombie-Britannique (0,28 % ou 384 $) que le co\u00fbt du R\u00e8glement sur les combustibles propres pour le m\u00e9nage moyen en 2030 est le plus bas, ce qui refl\u00e8te l\u2019incidence relativement faible sur le PIB r\u00e9el. Cela dit, le co\u00fbt pour le m\u00e9nage moyen en Ontario (0,35 % ou 495 $) et au Qu\u00e9bec (0,39 % ou 436 $) n\u2019est que modestement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates are based, in part, on data underlying the Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada from their upper bound fuel price scenario. Consequently, PBO estimates should be regarded as upper bound estimates.","fr":"Les estimations du DPB se fondent en partie sur les donn\u00e9es qui sous-tendent le R\u00e9sum\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9tude d\u2019impact de la r\u00e9glementation pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 par Environnement et Changement climatique Canada pour son sc\u00e9nario de limite sup\u00e9rieure d\u2019augmentation des prix des combustibles. Par cons\u00e9quent, les estimations du DPB devraient \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme des estimations de limite sup\u00e9rieure."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324004S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne and Bagnoli, Philip and Scholz, Tim and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={A Distributional Analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324004S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne and Bagnoli, Philip and Scholz, Tim and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={Analyse distributive du R\\`{e}glement sur les combustibles propres},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"RP-2223-028-S","is_published":"2023-03-30T12:57:03.000000Z","release_date":"2023-03-30T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-04-17T12:05:00.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-028-S","title_en":"A Distributional Analysis of the Federal Fuel Charge under the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan","title_fr":"Analyse distributive de la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles dans le cadre du Plan de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions pour 2030","slug":"RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/7590f619bb5d3b769ce09bdbc7c1ccce75ccd8b1bcfb506fc601a2409640bfdd"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/8886610d24c9ee4390e968a2fc6e736e1016819bc3e80cd58e04c6ab8400f977"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/471920ac275b376b60f56d6b1b326b4cfe0e12284d11c63107330b6849d58dd1","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d02dbc43dd7750d74fed9ac98cf33bb72573b1a18df0389a4740f42c3781bed0","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d82a6aa209b13f8e3b43fdb9aa5e0f8984a3ec69249f0b3bc146ea7971c500a8","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cfe2592f35d4b1b4a4891e1fb7a4d0469c4a5577b8be2e6000494831f511df48","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1713f7167294999c082ce16caca1029f4839366e52571ea4667e02e87e48acc3","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e00001e6e531b2ba40a301660e1b36d4190b9870c7def88ae3c23a3c01467ef8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dc13132b2188a7aab762b1934e28433aeee1ebd37919418a119b73c0072542fe","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f23ee4b0ef3a3a0c125497354a9978ba1f7adb4053f95c0af9c27cf879d531f9"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/65a774a7cada818a04fb27f93cf5d4652b5a4d196a341d42ded210f6901cf54d","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/21faa2ba702f6ba09eae4dad5a89c7876e03bbe9be61949995edb3a8c3d8b355","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f61c5f2415685a2ff51e66d385c5cb8e75b9c1c67f148ea2a5c83daf1ec18a30","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8b2497f5c8533ec6a362177c9574218777552e1f067e5bd421185ecd28f04a72","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/18851aac0f219f5e8ce813792130a582dfce0aec916281fad2404988b82abb38","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e6707a2e4f674b9d20f076743311e400bc6be7e07961fd6c8de874028df1aac8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d6c9b936b9a3e13e709c65a6785ae4c14ead7ad7ce4dbc93f349fd2d8bcd4a06","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/04b42764fc7ff98968c3424f47cc2ebef9a8339033e0d7a9fce1f62d105d6e03"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a distributional analysis of the federal fuel charge under the Government\u2019s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan.\n\nApril 17 2024: Estimates of household net costs incorporating \u201cfiscal and economic impacts\u201d reflect the broad economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing\u2014that is, the economic impact of the fuel charge and output-based pricing system (OBPS).\n\n[April 17 2024: Distributional analysis of carbon pricing (Additional Analysis)](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-002--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone)\n\n[March 24 2022: A Distributional Analysis of Federal Carbon Pricing under A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy (Report)](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco)","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une analyse distributive de la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles dans le cadre du Plan de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions du Canada pour 2030.\n\nLe 17 avril 2024 : Les estimations des co\u00fbts nets pour les m\u00e9nages int\u00e9grant les \u00ab incidences financi\u00e8res et \u00e9conomiques \u00bb refl\u00e8tent les incidences \u00e9conomiques au sens large d\u2019une tarification du carbone \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 celle du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral \u2014 c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019\u00e9quivalent f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de la redevance sur les combustibles et du syst\u00e8me de tarification fond\u00e9 sur le rendement (STFR).\n\n[Analyse compl\u00e9mentaire du 17 avril 2024 : Analyse distributive de la tarification du carbone](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires\/BLOG-2425-002--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone)\n\n[Rapport du 24 mars 2022 : Une analyse distributive de la tarification f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du carbone dans le cadre du plan \u00ab Un environnement sain et une \u00e9conomie saine \u00bb](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2122-032-S--distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-une-eco)","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Under the Government\u2019s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the federal fuel charge is set to rise from $65 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023-24 to $170 per tonne in 2030-31.","fr":"Selon le Plan de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions du Canada pour 2030, la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles doit passer de 65 $ la tonne d\u2019\u00e9quivalent en dioxyde de carbone en 2023-2024 \u00e0 170 $ la tonne en 2030-2031."}},{"content":{"en":"In 2023-24, the federal fuel charge will be expanded to include Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador. The federal fuel charge will continue to apply to Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario.","fr":"En 2023-2024, la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles sera \u00e9tendue \u00e0 la Nouvelle-\u00c9cosse, \u00e0 l\u2019\u00cele-du-Prince-\u00c9douard et \u00e0 Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador. La redevance continuera de s\u2019appliquer \u00e0 l\u2019Alberta, \u00e0 la Saskatchewan, au Manitoba et \u00e0 l\u2019Ontario."}},{"content":{"en":"When both fiscal and economic impacts of the federal fuel charge are considered, we estimate that most households will see a net loss, paying more in fuel charges and GST, as well as receiving lower incomes, compared to the Climate Action Incentive payments they receive and lower personal income taxes they pay.","fr":"Selon nos estimations, si l\u2019on tient compte des r\u00e9percussions \u00e0 la fois financi\u00e8res et \u00e9conomiques de la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles, la plupart des m\u00e9nages enregistreront une perte nette, en payant davantage des sommes plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es en redevances sur les combustibles et en TPS, et en percevant des revenus plus faibles en comparaison des paiements de l\u2019incitatif \u00e0 agir pour le climat qu\u2019ils re\u00e7oivent et de la baisse d\u2019imp\u00f4t sur le revenu des particuliers qu\u2019ils acquittent."}},{"content":{"en":"However, relative to disposable income, our estimates of household net cost of the federal fuel charge show a progressive impact that is, larger net costs for higher income households.","fr":"Cependant, en proportion du revenu disponible, nos estimations du co\u00fbt net pour les m\u00e9nages de la redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles indiquent une incidence progressive, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire des co\u00fbts nets sup\u00e9rieurs pour les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9."}},{"content":{"en":"In 2023-24, with the federal fuel charge set at $65 per tonne, we estimate that the Government will collect and return $11.8 billion in fuel charges in the seven provinces where the charge applies. With the charge rising to $170 per tonne in 2030-31, we project that the Government will collect and return $25.0 billion in fuel charges.","fr":"En 2023-2024, avec une redevance f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les combustibles de 65 $ la tonne, le gouvernement devrait percevoir et remettre 11,8 milliards de dollars de la redevance sur les combustibles dans les sept provinces o\u00f9 elle s\u2019applique. Quand la redevance passera \u00e0 170 $ la tonne en 2030-2031, il devrait percevoir et remettre 25 milliards de dollars."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223028S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={A Distributional Analysis of the Federal Fuel Charge under the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223028S,\n author={Ammar, Nasreddine and Laurin, Marianne and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={Analyse distributive de la redevance f\\\u0027{e}d\\\u0027{e}rale sur les combustibles dans le cadre du Plan de r\\\u0027{e}duction des \\\u0027{e}missions pour 2030},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"RP-2223-025-S","is_published":"2023-03-02T13:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2023-03-02T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-03-02T13:57:04.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-025-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2014 March 2023","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2014 Mars 2023","slug":"RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-025-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2023--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2023"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/b91ed5d0fe5c8c8cbd7f4267be3aea5259b91fe8f6f48431bc565b2e280771cf"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/d712dda84b04c6449721fb3f4cb6b75abbbeee3d478b3ec9a3da6d1493a2ea40"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/89a6bae7810083bf1412af79096a587a43828ccda79d196c5b1861ca8327a1f7","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8bfd3dfc68c618671e3d50e1a9643091de164fa07d75e7053045f36dba5c1d07","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a2ea4aa1f1288a4ae5b1e4eb87efdb2a2580ecfdded631eeee1029810e0b55e5","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f0dfa56cfbb35df9706fae0f992ff8bbf4db9c896b118cb7ac8bd58e46b8d911","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e952dbe60316dd3f1dba81e0bcf583f50e55cd2d03c9e23bf1a35e8961c29297","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fa1727a263a3f7cf130e37ae86303c6c1b6d64517ce4c686dbff9c225c81226b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c747d4fc97d53b61e8645d4548e58344c96b177ca4e8296e8e41c27923470dd","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d7f5034323f7d43dfc6612441f1f47d065ef6d4cc474ee6852470619163b6444"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06b0bd214b776391e2f7933ab4ea62150223671502b22216b4ffeed322039308","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ae2d39c7bd531e0cd1cb56f77b68b0b71f4b40e2bac8da0c38c70a4421db3525","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e4c9739dc952f334f1ea353fc6909ee91550e415b0cb8352180bb75715cc19e2","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/47e2c3a6b39e5a38ff80ff5f9cd929bce1d2815d5c281c57c6b07afb1e025d96","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/09b9a1feb4ff88bc26fa95ed07dcf1a37a0d2f1454fe55b6710e81d7702e16b4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/877b35d507633ecc898443bb72f9df983cb9e02fde7faa20088a56f7c98b61a8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e0573bfbb576baa6bf96d81618ddee7aa4be2b68cff4b65b7b1ce2900a0bbf88","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/80485e6ad949ae3a7ceaef99875bb88d9746759e6ed5680e2b50d37e1e090068"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Following a stronger-than-expected performance in the second half of 2022, PBO projects the Canadian economy to stagnate through 2023. As the tightening of monetary policy takes hold, we expect a further decline in residential investment and weakness in consumer spending in the first half of this year.","fr":"Apr\u00e8s que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne ait affich\u00e9 une performance plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu lors du deuxi\u00e8me semestre de 2022, le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle stagne jusqu\u2019en 2023. \u00c0 mesure que le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire se concr\u00e9tise, nous pr\u00e9voyons de nouvelle baisse de l\u2019investissement r\u00e9sidentiel et une faiblesse des d\u00e9penses de consommation au cours de la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the Bank of Canada to maintain its \u201cpause\u201d, holding the policy interest rate at 4.5 per cent, through December of this year. With CPI inflation solidly on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we then expect the Bank to start lowering its policy rate in January 2024, returning the rate to its estimated neutral level of 2.5 per cent in December 2024.","fr":"Le DPB s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada observe sa \u00ab\u2009pause\u2009\u00bb, en maintenant le taux directeur \u00e0 4,5 % jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin du mois de d\u00e9cembre de cette ann\u00e9e. Puisque l\u2019inflation de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) est en voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque commencera \u00e0 r\u00e9duire son taux directeur en janvier 2024, puis le ram\u00e8nera \u00e0 son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 de 2,5 % en d\u00e9cembre 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"For the current fiscal year, 2022-23, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to be $36.5 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to increase to $43.1 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) in 2023-24 before resuming its downward trajectory, falling to $8.7 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP) in 2027-28.","fr":"Pour l\u2019exercice en cours de 2022-2023, le DPB pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 36,5 milliards de dollars (1,3 % du PIB) selon une politique de statu quo. En supposant qu\u2019il n\u2019y ait pas de nouvelles mesures et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit devrait augmenter \u00e0 43,1 milliards de dollars (1,5 % du PIB) en 2023-2024 avant de reprendre sa trajectoire descendante, chutant \u00e0 8,7 milliards de dollars (0,3 % du PIB) en 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Under status quo policy, PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to decline to 41.8 per cent in 2022-23 and then to temporarily rise to 42.2 per cent in 2023-24. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 38.1 per cent in 2027-28 but remain above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Selon une politique de statu quo, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB diminuera \u00e0 41,8 % en 2022-2023, puis qu\u2019il remontera temporairement \u00e0 42,2 % en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait diminuer \u00e0 38,1 % en 2027-2028. Cependant, il devrait rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau pr\u00e9-pand\u00e9mique, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to tax revenues) under status quo policy will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2023-24 and then decline gradually to 10.3 per cent in 2027-28\u2014two percentage points above its pre-pandemic low of 8.3 per cent in 2018 19.","fr":"Le DPB projette que le ratio du service de la dette (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les charges de la dette publique par rapport aux recettes fiscales) culminera \u00e0 11,5 % en 2023-2024 selon une politique de statu quo. Ensuite, il diminuera progressivement pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 10,3 % en 2027-2028, soit deux points de pourcentage de plus que le niveau le plus bas enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie, \u00e0 savoir 8,3 % en 2018 2019."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223025S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook \\textemdash March 2023},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223025S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Ammar, Nasreddine and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res \\textemdash Mars 2023},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"RP-2223-021-S","is_published":"2022-11-15T13:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2022-11-15T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-11-15T17:28:25.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-021-S","title_en":"Fall Economic Statement 2022 \u2014 Issues for Parliamentarians","title_fr":"\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2022 \u2014 Enjeux pour les 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assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from the 2022 Fall Economic Statement.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fait ressortir les faits saillants de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2022* pour aider les parlementaires dans leurs d\u00e9lib\u00e9rations budg\u00e9taires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Revisions to the private sector economic outlook and fiscal developments in the Fall Economic Statement provide a total of $81.2 billion in new \u201cfiscal room\u201d, which finances $52.2 billion in (net) new measures over 2022-23 to 2027-28.","fr":"Les r\u00e9visions apport\u00e9es aux perspectives \u00e9conomiques du secteur priv\u00e9 et \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution budg\u00e9taire dans l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne* procurent une nouvelle \u00ab marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re \u00bb de 81,2 milliards de dollars, ce qui permet de financer 52,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures (nettes) de 2022-2023 \u00e0 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Over 40 per cent ($21.6 billion) of new measures are \u201coff-cycle\u201d in nature, that is, they preceded the $30.6 billion in new spending identified as Fall Economic Statement measures.","fr":"Plus de 40 % (21,6 milliards de dollars) des nouvelles mesures sont de nature \u00ab hors cycle \u00bb, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire qu\u2019elles ont pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 les 30,6 milliards de dollars de nouvelles d\u00e9penses d\u00e9sign\u00e9es comme \u00e9tant des mesures de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne*."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government highlighted that it exceeded its first spending review target of $3.0 billion by achieving savings of $3.8 billion from lower-than-anticipated spending on certain COVID 19 support measures in the previous fiscal year, 2021-22. However, the source of this savings is inconsistent with the intention and timing that was announced in Budget 2022.","fr":"Le gouvernement a soulign\u00e9 qu\u2019il avait d\u00e9pass\u00e9 sa premi\u00e8re cible d\u2019examen des d\u00e9penses de 3,0 milliards de dollars en r\u00e9alisant des \u00e9conomies de 3,8 milliards de dollars gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des d\u00e9penses moins \u00e9lev\u00e9es que pr\u00e9vu pour certaines mesures de soutien li\u00e9es \u00e0 la COVID-19 au cours de l\u2019exercice pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, soit 2021-2022. Toutefois, la source de ces \u00e9conomies n\u2019est pas conforme \u00e0 l\u2019intention et au calendrier annonc\u00e9s dans le budget de 2022."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government identified $14.2 billion in new measures without providing specific details on this spending. This spending represents 27 per cent of all new measures ($52.2 billion) in the Fall Economic Statement. This lack of transparency presents challenges for parliamentarians and the public in scrutinizing the Government\u2019s spending plans.","fr":"Le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 14,2 milliards de dollars en nouvelles mesures sans fournir de d\u00e9tails sur ces d\u00e9penses. Ces d\u00e9penses repr\u00e9sentent 27 % de toutes les nouvelles mesures (52,2 milliards de dollars) de l\u2019*\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne*. Ce manque de transparence pr\u00e9sente des d\u00e9fis pour les parlementaires et les membres du public au cours de l\u2019examen des plans de d\u00e9penses du gouvernement."}},{"content":{"en":"This year the Public Accounts were tabled on October 27\u2014seven months after the close of the fiscal year. Canada continues to fall short of the standard for advanced practice in the International Monetary Fund\u2019s financial reporting guidelines, which recommends that governments publish their annual financial statements within six months.","fr":"Cette ann\u00e9e, les Comptes publics ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9pos\u00e9s le 27 octobre \u2014 sept mois apr\u00e8s la cl\u00f4ture de l\u2019exercice. Le Canada ne respecte toujours pas la norme de pratique avanc\u00e9e des lignes directrices du Fonds mon\u00e9taire international en mati\u00e8re de rapports financiers, o\u00f9 il est recommand\u00e9 aux gouvernements de publier leurs \u00e9tats financiers annuels dans un d\u00e9lai de six mois."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223021S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and Laurin, Marianne and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Fall Economic Statement 2022 \\textemdash Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223021S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and Laurin, Marianne and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra and Stanton, Jason and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={\\\u0027{E}nonc\\\u0027{e} \\\u0027{e}conomique de l\u2019automne 2022 \\textemdash Enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"RP-2223-020-S","is_published":"2022-11-10T13:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2022-11-10T14:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-11-10T13:57:05.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-020-S","title_en":"Risk Scenario Analysis \u2014 November 2022","title_fr":"Analyse de sc\u00e9nario de risque \u2014 Novembre 2022","slug":"RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-020-S--risk-scenario-analysis-november-2022--analyse-scenario-risque-novembre-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/1784db049839a6abc9fce1862c044808c8f5395a2e6cd4ff6bc72ed642de352b"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4add25f0f3fe0524f9c433ba45ef4924dabde62e3e5d5e7f973ae656a4d43a70"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9ba2db66a0231ab8aa5b2c0099153c6042de983e216631333fdbd030fee443a4","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3caca905b6e0bb2962ed687fe19c6cc86a1090a6d695b4da233285a878bb7919","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3f6fa1760a0bae5d2a6d3edcab270fa53a490feb8e2d12f1de11d6ebfe3f3a7e","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/24b7f01db1ed2e1c05e4a4bf3855260440c9a2f9b0bc21dbe5d1295689d019c3","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b386a4acb137ce93d95c5a358bb89f1aa3ec86457664e9b9549510e0825ba487","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3cebe4cb090ff42b371b22f59326e72a57591b65f30ec28d03598f32480052d2","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/06c5f829ec5b71c436108ae2031e4d47400ddf6a28bfac56fe983426945cf640","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/19244a50c1cc10599289bd9f560870402a1ff345f376c67c23c2ee3b62fa45b3"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/864e05e30bbd443b983df6ce74adab5067394fe483ea07485cd980baa419e8ad","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fb87d4f0ee7ef2867e8305574cac5ecfef7af2015a1ba90ceae30a5f78413daa","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0203f253d0c718aa7dd4f59961cce2266f702b91a880a4a1ef5ad47609d59bb7","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/df6b5342fbd6e3c834bdcede16ffd86a9f015d4425335d87cb995278bc326167","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1bb0219a6f866dec9f554e01e6d484ecd1c3718e2dfbc4ffae181a3e82571e1c","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/39d9221f1edfd01bd00c9fe70a99a207e66eeac8e5eab755c9c37b31cff16ce3","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2cf79e87b40ad197102eaeafb72b079efa16750e211bd59913dca52069867edb","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2c5bb7701b5ea810495b8bef191eeacf5d1cb8b27de3e88fbe7da744d15081ab"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a risk scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of central banks over-tightening monetary policy. **The scenario is not a most-likely forecast. It is an illustrative scenario of one possible outcome.**","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport propose une analyse de sc\u00e9nario de risque pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les possibles r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res d\u2019un resserrement excessif de la politique mon\u00e9taire par les banques centrales. **Le sc\u00e9nario ne constitue pas une pr\u00e9vision. Il ne montre qu\u2019une des issues possibles \u00e0 la situation.**","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Our risk scenario assumes that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will continue to rapidly raise their policy interest rates to 5.25 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively, in early 2023 (100 basis points above our October outlook). We assume that the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada will begin to lower their policy rates in early 2024.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, nous supposons que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine et la Banque du Canada continueront d\u2019augmenter rapidement leur taux directeur, de sorte qu\u2019il atteigne 5,25 % et 5,0 % respectivement au d\u00e9but de 2023 (100 points de base de plus que dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre). Nous supposons qu\u2019elles commenceront \u00e0 abaisser leur taux au d\u00e9but de 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"With the over-tightening of monetary policy, real GDP in Canada begins to contract in the fourth quarter of 2022 and declines further over the course of 2023 in our risk scenario. Annual real GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 is -0.3 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, which is 1.5 and 1.0 percentage points lower compared to our October outlook.","fr":"Compte tenu du resserrement excessif de la politique mon\u00e9taire pr\u00e9vu dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le PIB r\u00e9el du Canada commence \u00e0 se contracter au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2022 et continue de diminuer en 2023. La croissance annuelle du PIB r\u00e9el en 2023 et en 2024 est de 0,3 % et 1,3 % respectivement, ce qui repr\u00e9sente une baisse de 1,5 et 1,0 point de pourcentage par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives d\u2019octobre."}},{"content":{"en":"Under our risk scenario, employment growth essentially stalls in late 2022 and over the course of 2023. Employment falls below levels projected in our October outlook, resulting in a loss of 177,000 (net) jobs by the end of 2024. The unemployment rate rises to 6.2 per cent in early 2024 in our risk scenario, which is 0.5 percentage points above our October outlook.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, la croissance de l\u2019emploi stagne essentiellement \u00e0 la fin de 2022 et en 2023. L\u2019emploi tombe sous les niveaux pr\u00e9vus dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre, ce qui se traduit par une perte de 177 000 emplois (nets) d\u2019ici la fin de 2024. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage passe \u00e0 6,2 % au d\u00e9but de 2024 dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, soit 0,5 point de pourcentage de plus que ce que nous pr\u00e9voyions dans nos perspectives d\u2019octobre."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to weaker economic activity and higher interest rates in 2023 and 2024 under our risk scenario, the budgetary deficit reaches $42.9 billion in 2023-24 (1.5 per cent of GDP) and $36.5 billion in 2024-25 (1.3 per cent of GDP). Compared to our October outlook, the budgetary deficit is $15.6 billion higher per year, on average, over 2023-24 to 2027-28.","fr":"En raison du ralentissement de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et de la hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, en 2023 et 2024 pr\u00e9vus dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 42,9 milliards de dollars en 2023-2024 (1,5 % du PIB) et \u00e0 36,5 milliards en 2024-2025 (1,3 % du PIB). Par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives d\u2019octobre, il est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de 15,6 milliards de dollars par ann\u00e9e, en moyenne, de 2023-2024 \u00e0 2027-2028."}},{"content":{"en":"Under our risk scenario, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio increases to 43.2 per cent of GDP in 2023-24 and remains elevated before gradually falling to 39.2 per cent in 2027-28. The debt service ratio (that is public debt charges relative to tax revenues) reaches 14.3 per cent in 2024-25 and then declines to 12.0 per cent in 2027-28.","fr":"Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de risque, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB augmente pour passer \u00e0 43,2 % du PIB en 2023-2024 et reste \u00e9lev\u00e9 avant de revenir graduellement \u00e0 39,2 % en 2027-2028. Le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes fiscales) atteint 14,3 % en 2024-2025 avant de retomber \u00e0 12,0 % en 2027-2028."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223020S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Behrend, Robert and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Risk Scenario Analysis \\textemdash November 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223020S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Behrend, Robert and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Analyse de sc\\\u0027{e}nario de risque \\textemdash Novembre 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"RP-2223-018-S","is_published":"2022-10-13T12:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2022-10-13T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-13T12:57:05.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-018-S","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 October 2022","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Octobre 2022","slug":"RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2022--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2022"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/258865a69ecf369e99f05a9e799d04136ed8c0b04830967d0ad5aecfd59f90f9"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/51a083e93dd377e22512a1bded7c9ec3406c0f7fac7eb2d3cc34b5fb31543ee6"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d7fa73999c04307e23d86d96180e5f91c31033c5a98ee407dc6b62cf9055991a","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9d332a78925718b07fbda3f93d76ab9bb2aebdba80cd6e29adc6f4cb242d2ddf","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fbb974d4b634d9d774e0b6d9a8963dcc027d71682e31681f69f8d3b8a772ef81","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b1ed7e24b589eb9697f566532534e451fdf683e36f72b4528766a85f31585db4","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fd5194e7f1ad4e2700932baba6f3337de968a2b78fbf3ac192ba3f9ddbca25f2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/569284196971fde0ae04a2fe40f3fb15fd9aeb8212b3a92d03fa50b47895fe1b","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9c606032b827b08e41f6ef8fcef2179d1759bc6853619320448436732c0eb62c","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4e27d041a155bc9dbb184b1c2a2a5f0188b46d4baea9c42d68345e6e2188e539"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e868718d7e6d6970c4c12049c275e08082aad802f134c34933002ffffb819e10","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f6a27cfedbbd466a775bce54ecdf70d3f89806f124a864cedfd28e534ff00e9f","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/765b7fa64713a56d6569df337c447227e123b34ac1898507a5cadc055ea531f1","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3c2ccb74035ad35fa788f6075f4f194cfa212d85ad15450156ab4e19a9370a68","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ca52aaabbc28d4b60d603d25ababb7e5100d76064e4e8ffdef1c0cfb6c1ce1d2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d2b396382ddf283ac93c1e58d239a0485c786a64e9c61c61435e62d76eddc6ad","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b0bd984003014b83e12072b4962d24e1abbf54f1bdcbdac4f1f3a62f069bef29","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6b3117d563ea91e5017f03f8b53059e09c7bd98995dbfa2b78a825de0b37a3d6"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et financiers possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Since the beginning of March, the Bank of Canada has increased its policy rate by a total of 300 basis points. We expect the Bank to increase its policy rate further, reaching 4 per cent by the end of this year. With the tightening of monetary policy, PBO projects real GDP growth in Canada to slow considerably in the second half of 2022 and remain weak through 2023.","fr":"Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois de mars, la Banque du Canada a relev\u00e9 son taux directeur de 300 points de base au total et on peut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle le rel\u00e8ve encore pour qu\u2019il atteigne 4 % d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Avec le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire, le DPB pr\u00e9voit un net ralentissement de la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el du Canada pendant la seconde moiti\u00e9 de 2022 et une faible croissance tout au long de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"As supply constraints ease and commodity prices recede from elevated levels in the first half of 2022, softer demand in 2023 is expected to contribute to sustained reductions in CPI inflation. With CPI inflation solidly on track to return to its 2 per cent target, we expect the Bank of Canada to start lowering its policy interest rate in late 2023.","fr":"Les difficult\u00e9s d\u2019approvisionnement s\u2019estompant et le cours des produits de base baissant par rapport aux niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s dans la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de 2022, le fl\u00e9chissement de la demande en 2023 devrait contribuer \u00e0 la baisse continue de l\u2019inflation des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC). Celle-ci \u00e9tant alors en tr\u00e8s bonne voie pour revenir \u00e0 la cible de 2 %, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la Banque du Canada commence \u00e0 baisser son taux directeur \u00e0 la fin de 2023."}},{"content":{"en":"In the absence of final financial results for the past fiscal year, PBO estimates that there was a budgetary deficit of $97.0 billion (3.9 per cent of GDP) in 2021-22. For the current fiscal year 2022-23, PBO projects the deficit to decline to $25.8 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy.","fr":"En l\u2019absence de r\u00e9sultats financiers d\u00e9finitifs pour le dernier exercice, le DPB estime que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire pour 2021-2022 s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vait \u00e0 97 milliards de dollars (3,9 % du PIB). Pour l\u2019exercice en cours, 2022-2023, il devrait revenir \u00e0 25,8 milliards de dollars (0,9 % du PIB), si la politique demeure inchang\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to decline further, reaching $3.1 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in 2027-28, as growth in tax revenue tracks gains in nominal GDP and growth in program spending remains constrained.","fr":"En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne sera introduite et que les mesures temporaires actuelles prendront fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait continuer de baisser pour atteindre 3,1 milliards de dollars (0,1 % du PIB) en 2027-2028, la croissance des recettes fiscales suivant la hausse du PIB nominal et l\u2019augmentation des d\u00e9penses de programmes restant limit\u00e9e."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to continue to decline from its peak in 2020-21, gradually reaching 36.2 per cent in 2027-28, but remain above its pre-pandemic level. We project the debt service ratio (public debt charges relative to tax revenues) will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2024-25 and then decline gradually, reaching 10.9 per cent in 2027-28.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB continuera de baisser par rapport au pic atteint en 2020-2021 pour revenir graduellement \u00e0 36,2 % en 2027-2028, mais qu\u2019il restera sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il \u00e9tait avant la pand\u00e9mie. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes fiscales) atteindra 11,5 % en 2024-2025, avant de redescendre graduellement \u00e0 10,9 % en 2027-2028."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223018S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2022},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223018S,\n author={Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Barkova, Lisa and Behrend, Robert and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Laurin, Marianne and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Vanderwees, Kaitlyn},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Octobre 2022},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}

{"id":"RP-2223-014-S","is_published":"2022-09-29T12:57:10.000000Z","release_date":"2022-09-29T13:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-09-29T12:57:10.000000Z","type":"RP","internal_id":"RP-2223-014-S","title_en":"House Price Assessment \u2013 Update","title_fr":"\u00c9valuation du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s \u2013 Mise \u00e0 jour","slug":"RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2223-014-S--house-price-assessment-update--evaluation-prix-proprietes-mise-jour"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/ccabbe7e676a533ff044e2643532a0a670f862c0692b927843b35bc8487110df"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/f746ce731c0b8aa8348f6aa6413278447d2bfdc366f239ec452d4d83d86c094d"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/25701fbe40bc3e1230b1f4b2e5055943c6ddb31ab3ad4558c7e900f43650d782","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2d7fd6eec49c6bdc90bb4f3072e061741b4c092ab72d0dde4dd17466414fe070","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2ab495c776e5308a2cd3dbd51d97f75b1ea3b97b77143b5bbe4f6e8dacc53c36","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b29406fa48e0b28a6a9fd7903bd75e4db0b90a99e0b43a7391a7391da2025d02","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fad47dcf7246ebc41e3237f11cd28fa068bf527875e918c7a01b743cbc55b3cb","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/98a06b98f7df2fa21128800f43be3e437212dd9ad9da5dabc737f379972936c0","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/386dee45529e8e81b5a5803e93ce51af23f0c0c9bfc17b4b9b3c8334ee8fe0a1","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/91283212087ca01332b551aacd784239aac32179e39160be01fff406d3bd7147"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f5224a838e6d90674a693e632311c8bd3589ab0d061439f826c9a92a934ee157","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0a9cd2356996eaeb261076cee95e71147092a793bc5ee55795c5364b426d0e2b","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6a28693fab7f7b72c5d5b9bdb40da45b298cdc0114c21875e90e2f1ffb20a781","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/762a793a5176da48d9b8c20da3f8c24d45062d603b6a288833fd20c6c225bc8d","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cea3d809215f59169b301417c3141b5f07274a835b30dc214d0d65d26d9f495c","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3b5457d8ca423610685a64e0b939c037635541cf9adba777728ce21359093c73","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/373dcfb6b0e1069ddd68a3aaa7b06f89a03574d4f1a7514eef8436cb9b8b5d8b","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c299fd868cce9ab63c048a9da5ddcc6828632e280b7eeeca616b8b35ff31ce98"}}},"metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides an update of PBO\u2019s assessment of house prices relative to a household\u2019s capacity to borrow and pay for the purchase of a house in selected Canadian cities. In addition, to gauge the potential downward adjustment in house prices in 2022, we consider scenarios based on assumed increases in mortgage rates and household debt service ratios.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente une mise \u00e0 jour de l\u2019\u00e9valuation, par le DPB, du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s par rapport \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 des m\u00e9nages d\u2019emprunter et de payer pour l\u2019achat d\u2019une maison dans certaines villes canadiennes. De plus, afin de mesurer un potentiel rajustement \u00e0 la baisse du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s en 2022, nous utilisons des sc\u00e9narios fond\u00e9s sur des hausses attendues des taux hypoth\u00e9caires et sur diff\u00e9rents ratios du service de la dette des m\u00e9nages.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The rapid increase in house prices during the pandemic pushed the national average price up 52 per cent to a peak of $839,600 in February 2022 from $551,100 in February 2020. The average house price has since declined by 7 per cent to $777,200 in August as mortgage rates have increased sharply.","fr":"La hausse rapide du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s durant la pand\u00e9mie a fait grimper de 52 % le prix national moyen, qui est ainsi pass\u00e9 de 551 100 $, en f\u00e9vrier 2020, \u00e0 un sommet de 839 600 $ en f\u00e9vrier 2022. Le prix moyen des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s a depuis recul\u00e9 de 7 %, passant \u00e0 777 200 $ en ao\u00fbt, parall\u00e8lement \u00e0 la forte augmentation des taux hypoth\u00e9caires."}},{"content":{"en":"We estimate that the gap between the average house price and the affordable house price nationally in August was 67 per cent. Average house prices in Hamilton, Toronto, Halifax, Ottawa, Montreal, Victoria and Vancouver were more than 50 per cent higher than their respective affordable prices.","fr":"Nous estimons que, \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale, l\u2019\u00e9cart entre le prix moyen et le prix abordable des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s atteignait 67 % en ao\u00fbt. \u00c0 Hamilton, Toronto, Halifax, Ottawa, Montr\u00e9al, Victoria et Vancouver, le prix moyen des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s surpassait de plus de 50 % les niveaux abordables estim\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"To gauge the potential downward adjustment in house prices in 2022, we construct scenarios based on assumed increases in mortgage rates (to 6.25 per cent for the 5-year fixed rate) over the remainder of 2022 and assumed household debt service ratios. Our scenarios imply price declines at the national level (relative to peak) ranging from 12 per cent to 23 per cent by the end of this year.","fr":"Afin de mesurer un potentiel rajustement \u00e0 la baisse du prix des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s en 2022, nous avons \u00e9tabli des sc\u00e9narios fond\u00e9s sur des hausses attendues des taux hypoth\u00e9caires (qui passeraient \u00e0 6,25 % dans le cas du taux fixe de 5 ans) pour le reste de 2022 et sur diff\u00e9rents ratios du service de la dette des m\u00e9nages. Dans nos sc\u00e9narios, nous estimons que d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, les prix \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale diminueraient de 12 % \u00e0 23 % (par rapport au sommet)."}}]},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2223014S,\n author={Laurin, Marianne},\n title={House Price Assessment - Update},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2223014S,\n author={Laurin, Marianne},\n title={\\\u0027{E}valuation du prix des propri\\\u0027{e}t\\\u0027{e}s - Mise \\`{a} jour},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2022,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}