Matthew McGoey

Latest publications

{"id":"RP-2526-012-S","is_published":"2025-09-25T12:57:04.000000Z","release_date":"2025-09-25T13:00:00.000000Z","last_revised_date":null,"title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 September 2025","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Septembre 2025","internal_id":"RP-2526-012-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO has revised down its economic outlook. Reflecting increased trade uncertainty and the implementation of tariffs, real GDP growth is projected to average 1.2 per cent annually over 2025 and 2026. While economic growth is projected to rebound to 1.8 per cent in 2027, structurally weaker trade conditions are expected to lower the level of real GDP by 0.5 per cent by 2030.","fr":"Le DPB a revu \u00e0 la baisse ses perspectives \u00e9conomiques. Compte tenu de l\u2019incertitude croissante entourant les \u00e9changes commerciaux et de l\u2019application des droits de douane, la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el devrait s\u2019\u00e9tablir en moyenne \u00e0 1,2 % par an en 2025 et en 2026. M\u00eame si la croissance \u00e9conomique devrait rebondir pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 1,8 % en 2027, la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration structurelle des conditions commerciales devrait faire baisser le niveau du PIB r\u00e9el de 0,5 % d\u2019ici 2030."}},{"content":{"en":"Nominal GDP\u2014the broadest measure of the Government\u2019s tax base\u2014is projected to be $12.9 billion lower annually, on average, over 2025 to 2029 primarily due to the lasting impact of tariffs and less favourable trading conditions with the United States.","fr":"Le PIB nominal, la mesure la plus \u00e9largie de l\u2019assiette fiscale de l\u2019\u00c9tat, devrait \u00eatre inf\u00e9rieur de 12,9 milliards de dollars par an, en moyenne, sur la p\u00e9riode 2025-2029, principalement en raison de l\u2019effet durable des droits de douane et des conditions commerciales moins favorables avec les \u00c9tats-Unis."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO\u2019s status quo fiscal outlook includes new measures announced since the 2024 Fall Economic Statement amounting to $115.1 billion in (net) new spending over 2024-25 to 2029-30.","fr":"Les perspectives financi\u00e8res du statu quo du DPB incluent les nouvelles mesures annonc\u00e9es depuis l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2024, qui s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vent \u00e0 115,1 milliards de dollars en nouvelles d\u00e9penses (nettes) sur la p\u00e9riode s\u2019\u00e9chelonnant de 2024-2025 \u00e0 2029-2030."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to increase sharply from $51.7 billion (1.7 per cent of GDP) in 2024-25 to $68.5 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP) in 2025-26 reflecting weaker economic growth and additional measures impacting both revenues and expenses.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit une forte augmentation du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire, qui passerait de 51,7 milliards de dollars (1,7 % du PIB) en 2024-2025 \u00e0 68,5 milliards de dollars (2,2 % du PIB) en 2025-2026, en raison d\u2019une croissance \u00e9conomique plus faible et de mesures suppl\u00e9mentaires affectant \u00e0 la fois les recettes et les d\u00e9penses."}},{"content":{"en":"Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to decline slightly but remain close to $60 billion through the medium term as growth in revenues only slightly outpaces growth in expenses.","fr":"En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit introduite et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait descendre l\u00e9g\u00e8rement, mais restant proche de 60 milliards de dollars \u00e0 moyen terme, la croissance des recettes ne d\u00e9passant que l\u00e9g\u00e8rement celle des d\u00e9penses."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to persistent budgetary deficits of over 1 per cent of GDP, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase from 41.7 per cent in 2024-25, rising above 43 per cent over the medium term. Compared to our March outlook, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is 4.5 percentage points higher in 2029-30 and is no longer projected to be on a declining path over the medium term.","fr":"En raison de d\u00e9ficits budg\u00e9taires persistants de plus de 1 % du PIB, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB, estim\u00e9 \u00e0 41,7 % en 2024-2025, devrait s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 plus de 43 % \u00e0 moyen terme. Par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives de mars, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB est sup\u00e9rieur de 4,5 points de pourcentage en 2029-2030 et ne devrait plus \u00eatre sur une trajectoire descendante \u00e0 moyen terme."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-09-25T12:57:04.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-012-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-september-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-septembre-2025"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/e40b5816b0130180b69a3e321f211634180a563c54de15cdafa64434e2b43ad3"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b00a252bd26135a3adb49dde6d0c4dee626c582d5355d6416af744af6ef46e0"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6769297bca43963ba26c19d02ef18a4e5e84480c566edd64a8b0be587418d8f6","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/13c478ff6b7eee5b933e4b4df07731fbde51f36b231214d0b2cb80ae8a4e5761","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7d3fea48ab69dde3586d8bee8ae19495295a590534e54154098f37ca7f9b889a","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7be048d7baddbc1055bef6dcfd20411259b01b56cc0aaf463f10a22e66e95f95","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/034ae446f8a156cb2445030e0b23cbc5da96fc931686b39b4656255635660c8c","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3fc2d916d181961ac3713f7e7ca8b346b1222714fb8d849345b8b63b073180de","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0b992df7591c3a00e326df1c9c5497503e547448a0ba3d9217d9d3d1b0dea8a0","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b2af8e968b70363c03fcab835c78d9618851f66a249b7d6d762ae4014d689a93"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/42a8e45b2c0aefcc1b2194c9c5486f55a0c1ad871fef1b5acde5eb81d820e24c","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d4dc1ce5c02c420379d9671fab3c30b97538e0f5a1a4a27a10038c38e3bbc44a","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/24384117472e4a3343a378f7132916e5843b17f3044e19a86cd2e8790345160b","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/155d3862f422333a91eb89166366a9cb30ebfca8bef4157a7c442f4bb9c47dbc","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5ddf69d3b33d60792eb16ae3732a9089a9608f996727c041abf51f2bed27b6b6","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d265bb42ff8713762cc0fb79af1e3f700ec72e248efe0b0f987af4d3c3d52fce","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb814b3d54b7f68e6c4992ffbd5ff80f46ee75b352cf184d3b87c3207df7f8e4","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/38f619531b1f732147eeaa17e979340a701a029e961864546096685eb8a8bddd"}}},"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2526012S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - September 2025},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2526012S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Septembre 2025},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2526-004-S","is_published":"2025-06-19T12:57:10.000000Z","release_date":"2025-06-19T13:00:00.000000Z","last_revised_date":null,"title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Monitor \u2013 June 2025","title_fr":"Revue \u00e9conomique et financi\u00e8re \u2013 juin 2025","internal_id":"RP-2526-004-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a real-time estimate of growth in Canada\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP) and the Government of Canada\u2019s budgetary balance in 2024-25 based on data released since our March 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, up to and including 13 June 2025. All rates are reported at annual rates unless otherwise noted.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une estimation en cours d\u2019exercice du taux de la croissance du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) du Canada et du solde budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement du Canada en 2024-2025 selon les donn\u00e9es publi\u00e9es depuis les Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res de mars 2025 jusqu\u2019au 13 juin 2025, inclusivement. Tous les taux pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s correspondent \u00e0 des taux annualis\u00e9s, sauf indication contraire.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Canada\u2019s real GDP grew by a stronger-than-expected 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, as firms increased exports and inventories in anticipation of new U.S. tariffs.","fr":"Le PIB r\u00e9el du Canada a connu une croissance plus forte que pr\u00e9vu, soit 2,2 %, au premier trimestre de 2025, alors que les entreprises ont augment\u00e9 leurs exportations et leurs stocks en pr\u00e9vision des nouveaux droits de douane am\u00e9ricains."}},{"content":{"en":"We expect that Canada\u2019s real GDP will be flat in the second quarter of 2025. Recent data suggest that the Canadian economy slowed in the second quarter due to the unwinding of pre-tariff stockpiling and the adverse impact of new U.S. tariffs on exports.","fr":"Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que le PIB r\u00e9el du Canada stagne au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025. Les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9centes indiquent que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne a ralenti au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre en raison de la r\u00e9trocession des stocks accumul\u00e9s avant l\u2019imposition des droits de douane et de l\u2019impact n\u00e9gatif des nouveaux droits de douane am\u00e9ricains sur les exportations."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government\u2019s budgetary balance for 2024\u201325 is estimated to be a deficit of $46.0 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP). This is $4.3 billion lower than our projection in the 2025 Election Proposal Costing baseline, which did not include the impact of tariffs or retaliatory measures. The debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to fall to 41.5 per cent of GDP in 2024-25, from 42.1 per cent in 2023-24.","fr":"Le solde budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement pour 2024-2025 devrait afficher un d\u00e9ficit de 46,0 milliards de dollars (1,5 % du PIB). Ce montant est inf\u00e9rieur de 4,3 milliards de dollars \u00e0 notre pr\u00e9vision de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du co\u00fbt des propositions \u00e9lectorales pendant la campagne de 2025, qui ne tenait pas compte de l\u2019impact des droits de douane ou des mesures de r\u00e9torsion. Le ratio de la dette au PIB devrait chuter \u00e0 41,5 % du PIB en 2024-2025, comparativement \u00e0 42,1 % en 2023-2024."}},{"content":{"en":"The Government has introduced a new Operating Budget fiscal anchor and committed to balancing this \u201cbudget\u201d by 2028-29. It is currently unclear what would be defined as \u201coperating\u201d or \u201cnon-operating\/capital\u201d spending. Hence PBO is unable to assess whether the Government\u2019s recent fiscal policy initiatives are consistent with achieving its fiscal objective.","fr":"Le gouvernement a introduit un nouveau point d\u2019ancrage du budget de fonctionnement et s\u2019est engag\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00e9quilibrer ce \u00ab budget \u00bb d\u2019ici 2028-2029. La d\u00e9finition des d\u00e9penses \u00ab de fonctionnement \u00bb ou \u00ab autres que de fonctionnement\/en capital \u00bb n\u2019est pas claire \u00e0 l\u2019heure actuelle. Le DPB n\u2019est donc pas en mesure de d\u00e9terminer si les initiatives r\u00e9centes du gouvernement en mati\u00e8re de politique budg\u00e9taire sont compatibles avec la r\u00e9alisation de son objectif budg\u00e9taire."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-06-19T12:57:10.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2526-004-S--economic-fiscal-monitor-june-2025--revue-economique-financiere-juin-2025","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-004-S--economic-fiscal-monitor-june-2025--revue-economique-financiere-juin-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2526-004-S--economic-fiscal-monitor-june-2025--revue-economique-financiere-juin-2025"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-004-S--economic-fiscal-monitor-june-2025--revue-economique-financiere-juin-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2526-004-S--economic-fiscal-monitor-june-2025--revue-economique-financiere-juin-2025"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/77da7d35381e57c12790923e5e806687c26c488126ed6cbbf708b033cde19e75"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/a79b4a2c1474e5d0854890b526ab2d17fa3e83a294f3569f3a597dd9067f1f20"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1fc3f550e12e644dcdfd53ff7e63a1f4aa9516d649bf28305a373914ff924bbd","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b8587dae5fd5eb40f16379c4f14a23905e715e37b96feec424df4395cf8cd0f","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bbf23b00efa32a97b4756603879dbfad6c321d2f55355b80d40f3e3b4b40955b","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/691c99145147596c10f827512a32abf2880f22aa40e493e2cc8af8821b40878e","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7ea3f3b70287096b3560875da3a38876ad89c74c0a3ca0ff2005e425d3d8eb63","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/96d263d9ef175e4766e66cf808b5dc8b3f2013707254fdd06beaf09495ca7254","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3f0e1db2fce21583059e57c97c972e344664ee6ceee972fbd6f09c892d5890e6","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6b241366bbcfb873260b213170a702c9fc18bb12dc7e0d002b8b6a2b0cff66ce"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb5e6679bd53002f700922a193a06e85aa57efa7f46d1d00c6a8a3505c5f7d7c","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7c49d0cc130203f32ec3be979623f69f6d855a5e2320f49be89a0ff8688a9c1a","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/75c284958f86c7788ce21be70c2b99dd8aacece64df365be00f7f23a014ab9c4","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b16bc27abd1235cc5c51b54752b04fc967e28eb39156ab1f373c03673c42ffba","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/af57736098a3e0432243e6b95b784fd4e50aba05ae5c1ff608b14c745a365ee2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/67ec60263327f8aa52701f25163db0b8178adc97111decefe53dafe28e93c169","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8dc19a04dfb8cb6da421f148360bceb6509d297f48b7648511e0626e02f5ecce","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/044c81ad04d2d9ee145dc64f27a7bd701f59f37280a4d7fd606657b162b80c8f"}}},"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2526004S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and McGoey, Matthew and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Laurin, Marianne and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Monitor - June 2025},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2526004S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and McGoey, Matthew and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Laurin, Marianne and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Revue \\\u0027{e}conomique et financi\\`{e}re - juin 2025},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2425-030-S","is_published":"2025-03-05T13:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2025-03-05T14:00:00.000000Z","last_revised_date":null,"title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 March 2025","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Mars 2025","internal_id":"RP-2425-030-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"There is considerable uncertainty regarding breadth, depth, and duration of a potential global trade conflict. As such, this Economic and Fiscal Outlook does not include threatened U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from Canada and other countries. However, PBO has prepared a scenario for parliamentarians\u2019 consideration.","fr":"Il existe une incertitude consid\u00e9rable quant \u00e0 l\u2019ampleur, \u00e0 la profondeur et \u00e0 la dur\u00e9e d\u2019un \u00e9ventuel conflit commercial mondial. Ainsi, les pr\u00e9sentes Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res ne couvrent pas les droits de douane que les \u00c9tats Unis menacent d\u2019imposer ni les mesures de r\u00e9torsion envisag\u00e9es par le Canada et d\u2019autres pays. Toutefois, le DPB a pr\u00e9par\u00e9 un sc\u00e9nario pour la gouverne des parlementaires."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the Canadian economy to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2025, as uncertainty and slowing population growth weigh on business investment and consumer spending.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne conna\u00eetra en 2025 une croissance de 1,7 %, alors que l\u2019incertitude et le ralentissement de la croissance d\u00e9mographique freineront les investissements des entreprises et les d\u00e9penses de consommation."}},{"content":{"en":"With ongoing excess supply in the economy, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected to remain near target. PBO anticipates the Bank of Canada will reduce its policy rate by another 25 basis points to reach its estimated neutral level of 2.75 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.","fr":"Compte tenu de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire persistante dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie, on s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que l\u2019inflation mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019Indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) reste pr\u00e8s de sa cible. Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la Banque du Canada r\u00e9duira son taux directeur de 25 points de base afin qu\u2019il atteigne son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 de 2,75 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to fall to $50.1 billion (1.6 per cent of the gross domestic product or GDP) in 2024-25 from the $61.9 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) deficit recorded in 2023-24. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $24.6 billion (0.7 per cent of GDP) in 2029-30.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire sera de 50,1 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut, ou PIB) en 2024-2025, une baisse par rapport au d\u00e9ficit de 61,9 milliards de dollars (2,1 % du PIB) en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit devrait reprendre sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 24,6 milliards de dollars (0,7 % du PIB) en 2029-2030."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to fall slightly from its 2023-24 level of 42.1 per cent, reaching 41.9 per cent in 2024-25 and 41.6 per cent in 2025-26. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.2 per cent in 2029-30 but remain well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB baissera l\u00e9g\u00e8rement par rapport au ratio de 42,1 % en 2023-2024 et qu\u2019il atteindra 41,9 % en 2024-2025 et 41,6 % en 2025-2026. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,2 % en 2029-2030, ce qui demeure bien sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) will rise to 10.8 per cent in 2024-25 from 10.3 per cent in 2023-24. PBO projects the debt service ratio to increase further, reaching 11.3 per cent in 2029-30\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes totales) passera \u00e0 10,8 % en 2024-2025, alors qu\u2019il s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 10,3 % en 2023-2024. Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette augmentera encore et qu\u2019il atteindra 11,3 % en 2029-2030, soit bien au-dessus de son creux de 7,0 % enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie en 2018-2019."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-03-05T13:57:08.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/92c62a1693230bf441637127bc5435ebfc63bce9e2989c5672bfd8f0ba540a4e"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4865417355d8eb36abc3407d84838c625c8766ba5bfce1967f358c32d79b32b3"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d39082e5b906d8a1df6ea5d97eed6f5c5bebc932ec8573cc34e40e97a50fd296","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3b0f430fb5b27bdb1f5d366dbf081cac227535726b9bcfe7c92c27a37b0ba35a","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/78ad65afd599e253699c810bcf257c4d256f66201feafd180b4faaf2bec918b9","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/439e9d192bd566d21cc854bf58e9df9d74a2f479b09953161df9cc7e85680329","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9c75d60a6360aca44f040daecaf3f0648f666043cfdf1f5ea8199586884848e4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0051404e79e6220140ba494b3d50c5f5a3e230f712657cd34b669570ea0ce031","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/17bfa4c12eb452794c7e7101d7657b10b510efcadbb89e0a3539bf88b6c77983","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/751b7cb7c1cbe2262e60e0482da3aafe3db33a8176e6d5473e89c70634c0207d"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5bb705586729f04b7984ff228369030171069c6859a81050a952cd3698a4ddc8","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/05f86e3e14dbd02f89fc985507df5188938cf17ebb8580b4750c7829096b01a7","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6d5afcfe975eb297ea0558eb9400122b7e750bae2e2dd8d90920b96186f20175","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6cfd380fb7ae595734b693cbc84f9b5c10b3a44550bdce5a751f9f73d50af9ae","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5f0ed8ac00e8622257090aeeccae98b5118fa5af555aef9662649e52edbd9ad0","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b60f883c36ddfac376cd4637dc20c03eb94295b82461ca0cd891be56237991d","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6ba29c9215861d68294c86ef5b83f9dd9d47ba1ebde03011ada025a496ae6c19","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b333fd95210f9037e19a81a1ed4b05edbad61fdc18feb551a2ecdb4cf63c2711"}}},"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425030S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Matier, Chris and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2025},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425030S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Matier, Chris and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Mars 2025},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2425-018-S","is_published":"2024-10-17T12:57:02.000000Z","release_date":"2024-10-17T13:00:00.000000Z","last_revised_date":null,"title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 October 2024","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 octobre 2024","internal_id":"RP-2425-018-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO projects growth in the Canadian economy to remain tepid in 2024. Interest rates will continue to restrain growth in consumer spending and business investment. We expect real GDP growth will rebound to 2.2 per cent in 2025, as lower borrowing costs provide a boost to consumer spending and business investment, and exports pickup.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne demeurera modeste en 2024. Les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat continueront de freiner la croissance des d\u00e9penses de consommation et des investissements des entreprises. Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la croissance du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el rebondisse \u00e0 2,2 % en 2025, car la baisse des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt stimule les d\u00e9penses de consommation et les investissements des entreprises, et encourage la reprise des exportations."}},{"content":{"en":"With the ongoing excess supply in the economy, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is on track to return to its 2 per cent target. We anticipate the Bank of Canada will continue to gradually reduce its policy rate until it reaches its estimated neutral level of 2.75 percent in the second quarter of 2025.","fr":"Compte tenu de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire persistante au sein de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, l\u2019inflation mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019Indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation est en voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque du Canada continuera de r\u00e9duire progressivement son taux directeur jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019il atteigne son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 \u00e0 2,75 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025."}},{"content":{"en":"We estimate that there was a budgetary deficit of $46.8 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) in 2023-24. For the current fiscal year, 2024-25, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to slightly decline to $46.4 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $22.5 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) in 2029-30.","fr":"Nous estimons qu\u2019il y avait un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 46,8 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du PIB) en 2023-2024. Pour l\u2019exercice financier en cours, soit 2024-2025, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire diminuera l\u00e9g\u00e8rement \u00e0 46,4 milliards de dollars (1,5 % du PIB) dans le cadre d\u0027une politique de statu quo. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 22,5 milliards de dollars (0,6 % du PIB) en 2029-2030."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to be 42.2 per cent in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.0 per cent in 2029-30, well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB restera \u00e0 42,2 % en 2024-2025. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,0 % en 2029-2030, ce qui est bien sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) to rise to 10.6 in 2024-25 from 10.3 per cent in 2023-24. As the effective interest rate on debt edges higher in 2024-25, we project the debt service ratio to increase further and reach 11.2 per cent in 2029-30\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes totales) passera \u00e0 10,6 % en 2024-2025, alors qu\u2019il s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 10,3 % en 2023-2024. Comme le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat effectif sur la dette est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en 2024-2025, nous pr\u00e9voyons que le ratio du service de la dette augmentera encore et qu\u2019il atteindra 11,2 % en 2029-2030, soit bien au dessus de son creux record de 7,0 % enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie en 2018-2019."}}]},"updated_at":"2024-10-17T12:57:02.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/78ce079f881ed107be7389eca371c9c0b21752840065265538f30a75466327d0"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/17e763792632c01620f1be9013979a56278f652c6ac6c3bbbffdfa5c47ba76e7"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2227ae47016244d7fee6979ff55819dcb53a12859eb1cad58eda51e4e02693eb","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f6cc3cc16c055321966c155117bd8575a3b39b5a111db7d24b971fc55f4fae72","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d94c00f588acaf2837e7f7fe9a8074d6d18a092766ac0c0381446bb6bea46cbe","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/71a466f30c420eaa90bc7d53c42a853930242594d1e357e88c47619b3ec85f78","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5d029a2ada90cd0b8ad1e0ff0670fb2699006a85fa494976d25b358ca06e04b5","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/40e014410224941454565d72f05e42781305917f04385a6f96fb9d73cf1f5b99","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0014eeb7527086482703320a87481ebaa58838710c878ba50e918d40eb36e001","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/27a7b5cf8a2a9d6030896935105ed5322d03659942d6302299f901dd4d5e7b58"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9cc31e3071cdd2ed8031d0508f7bc7c32f9d24e16c1a5716cc5036aec5d1e27e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bfdd900a0556836b9c37ce2d272d4ab95b075b4f98e79a55f074bd172129b6a4","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3ef5173adc96a6755a37f3c3423399dc6cd7a0d0d73ad634770a2f17dea8cb04","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4319f07362f23fde8ef5e89ccdd7db90da89fb7088461604dbd28401aa679049","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/16b425b08a6ab3f885215e818f5651d3d1b0a01985d4a7504d6ef10bf16377f3","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a4939d014cfac1a212b106edcb9bbf9c511a4b918191acdf339ca50675152ff8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c8edc32eaeb43dd766d9732cc6bd78b5b41317afa461077c610a17a27d116b54","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb1d8dc3dfc3f1729604a2d931f6ee96539be90eac2b435efcc202ad1d019963"}}},"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425018S,\n author={Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary and Matier, Chris},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2024},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425018S,\n author={Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary and Matier, Chris},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - octobre 2024},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}