De nouvelles prévisions font état d’une croissance plus faible et de déficits plus élevés, selon la directrice parlementaire du budget

Publication

{"id":"RP-2627-002-S","is_published":"2026-06-04T12:57:05.000000Z","release_date":"2026-06-04T13:00:00.000000Z","last_revised_date":null,"title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 June 2026","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Juin 2026","internal_id":"RP-2627-002-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The Economic and Fiscal Outlook assessed that the Canadian economy grew by 1.7 per cent in 2025, with a weakened outlook thereafter.\u00b9 Treating the current tariff environment as permanent, we now project real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.1 per cent in 2026 and 1.6 per cent in 2027, down from 1.3 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively, from our September 2025 outlook.","fr":"Les Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res ont \u00e9valu\u00e9 que l\u0027\u00e9conomie canadienne a progress\u00e9 de 1,7 % en 2025, avec des perspectives affaiblies par la suite\u00b9. En consid\u00e9rant l\u2019environnement tarifaire actuel comme permanent, nous pr\u00e9voyons \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent une croissance du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el de 1,1 % en 2026 et de 1,6 % en 2027, contre respectivement 1,3 % et 1,8 % dans les Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res de septembre 2025."}},{"content":{"en":"After accounting for historical revisions, nominal GDP\u2014the broadest measure of the Government\u0027s tax base\u2014is projected to be, on average, $19.5 billion higher annually over the 2026 to 2030 period compared to the outlook from September, due to stronger energy prices.","fr":"Apr\u00e8s prise en compte des r\u00e9visions historiques, le PIB nominal \u2013 la mesure la plus large de l\u2019assiette fiscale du gouvernement \u2013 devrait \u00eatre sup\u00e9rieur de 19,5 milliards de dollars en moyenne chaque ann\u00e9e pour la p\u00e9riode 2026-2030, par rapport aux perspectives de septembre, en raison de la hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO\u2019s status quo fiscal outlook includes the incremental measures announced in Budget 2025 and the Spring Economic Update 2026. Combined, these measures amount to $68.4 billion in (net) new spending over 2025-26 to 2030-31.","fr":"Les perspectives financi\u00e8res du statu quo du BDPB tiennent compte des nouvelles mesures annonc\u00e9es dans le budget de 2025 et la Mise \u00e0 jour \u00e9conomique du printemps (MEP) 2026. Ensemble, ces mesures entra\u00eeneront de nouvelles d\u00e9penses (nettes) de 68,4 milliards de dollars sur la p\u00e9riode allant de 2025-2026 \u00e0 2030-2031."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to increase from $36.3 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP) in 2024-25 to $72.0 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP) in 2025-26 as modest revenue growth is outpaced by growth in expenses \u2014 largely reflecting the introduction of new measures.","fr":"Selon les pr\u00e9visions du BDPB, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire passera de 36,3 milliards de dollars (1,2 % du PIB) en 2024-2025 \u00e0 72,0 milliards de dollars (2,2 % du PIB) en 2025-2026, la croissance modeste des recettes \u00e9tant inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle des d\u00e9penses, en grande partie en raison de la prise de nouvelles mesures."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects budgetary deficits averaging $4.6 billion per year above the SEU 2026, reflecting lower revenues, particularly personal income tax, and higher program expenses, partially offset by lower public debt charges.","fr":"Le BDPB pr\u00e9voit des d\u00e9ficits budg\u00e9taires d\u2019en moyenne 4,6 milliards de dollars par ann\u00e9e au\u2011del\u00e0 de la MEP 2026, attribuables \u00e0 des recettes plus faibles, en particulier de l\u2019imp\u00f4t sur le revenu des particuliers, et des d\u00e9penses de programmes plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es, partiellement compens\u00e9es par des frais de la dette publique moins \u00e9lev\u00e9s."}},{"content":{"en":"Recent trends point to atypical growth paths for elderly benefits and children\u0027s benefits. PBO will pursue further analysis regarding both expense categories.","fr":"Les r\u00e9centes tendances indiquent des trajectoires de croissance atypiques pour les prestations aux a\u00een\u00e9s et les prestations pour enfants. Le BDPB entreprendra des analyses suppl\u00e9mentaires concernant ces deux cat\u00e9gories de d\u00e9penses."}},{"content":{"en":"Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled; the budgetary deficit is projected to decline to $58.2 billion by 2030-31, as revenue growth outpaces growth in program expenses, partially offset by rising public debt charges.","fr":"En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit mise en place et que les mesures temporaires actuellement en vigueur prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait diminuer pour atteindre 58,2 milliards de dollars d\u2019ici 2030-2031, la croissance des recettes \u00e9tant sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la croissance des d\u00e9penses de programmes, mais partiellement compens\u00e9e par la hausse des frais de la dette publique."}},{"content":{"en":"Due to persistent budgetary deficits of on average 1.8 per cent of GDP over the projection horizon, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is anticipated to increase from 41.3 per cent in 2025-26 to 42.5 per cent in 2030-31. Similar to our September outlook, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain flat over the medium term.","fr":"\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 qu\u2019un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire s\u2019\u00e9levant en moyenne \u00e0 1,8 % du PIB devrait persister tout au long de la p\u00e9riode de projection, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB devrait s\u2019accro\u00eetre, passant de 41,3 % en 2025-2026 \u00e0 42,5 % en 2030-2031. Comme nous l\u2019avions indiqu\u00e9 dans nos perspectives de septembre, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB devrait rester stable \u00e0 moyen terme."}}]},"updated_at":"2026-06-04T12:57:05.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2627-002-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-june-2026--perspectives-economiques-financieres-juin-2026","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2627-002-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-june-2026--perspectives-economiques-financieres-juin-2026","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2627-002-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-june-2026--perspectives-economiques-financieres-juin-2026"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2627-002-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-june-2026--perspectives-economiques-financieres-juin-2026","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2627-002-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-june-2026--perspectives-economiques-financieres-juin-2026"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/2073136cc439c15f9cc5917e1db1ed23bef0aa72a4a8a1751a1c650913a5fa10"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/ab506701a0a4757b06f7f6b6e0da99f9f4419a540f7b6a5cdea0bb267535871b"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/296176183ad29c18f493f21055f9c057b4d879419756bce5806cdf6501829bca","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c782d0c209330b8daa81940317eeb9f8eb2475115525b41e77336f9e4492e313","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8dd5f3a911212d22cc17437c884118e8468be24d7fa1b2b88e87a3c94e6512c5","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e1838659e6af762c04313f3b191156ed5d3d3559ab3b3ed319df15d221c0329c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/96b917b4bfc1b53ccbb68a8d243a45f966546514e6702dcb874d597e5416bba3","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a8cbdedc483972ead073af3dbfec62e5d066600950532bf73e4cac8c65dbfd43","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9b4bc6d73bada4afd40d5dae07c1923462019768a38fa9951b2fe485b0cb0625","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a564bb67b4c95ba8649284d8b040a43c3adcaa187769cde18c914562ec7e8b52"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ffdea23c65d9d7c8db16bf4091d6bcab4e34c59fcafa2961be24c77f1ab400b4","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2f1b0be6e17983682e89644668be35aba36d7247134f2578600ec0c52e574607","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/75fafbdb207384a1468bdaeb97aacaf700cfccdc88fb84efa036000ade0962f1","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/978bd812a28945e405587a3e17661b37b8c30bb32f2e61ebf093640673140b6c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a3d09b085f33e10c2da393ed8a94e7262957c03c3f67e1c44a015fce4e41e171","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/441c2ab1c2a9935e9e65b3b6d6150725a42e14d8f77a2b477004d2ba4d157de5","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a4b455b934c160923a2e40c0b65a26b6cbff56df5a005d74eae0bc79427204e8","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fd10c836fcb98a7bf1f4baae877fa6ac763aef6c3691da615680362b03f068c3"}}},"quotes":[{"id":150,"created_at":"2026-06-03T13:59:55-04:00","updated_at":"2026-06-03T13:59:55-04:00","content_en":"The budgetary deficit is projected to average around $64 billion over the next five years, with the debt service ratio reaching 13.1 per cent by 2030-31. Our baseline outlook is broadly in line with the Spring Economic Update. That said, stress testing shows that there is uncertainty surrounding the outlook.","content_fr":"Le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait s\u2019\u00e9tablir en moyenne \u00e0 environ 64 milliards de dollars au cours des cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es, le ratio du service de la dette atteignant 13,1 % d\u2019ici 2030-2031. Nos pr\u00e9visions de base sont globalement conformes \u00e0 celles de la Mise \u00e0 jour \u00e9conomique du printemps. Cela dit, les tests de r\u00e9sistance montrent que ces pr\u00e9visions demeurent incertaines.","play_count":0,"hashid":"Wz0xA4b5yG","author":{"slug":"annette-ryan","created_at":"2026-04-23T12:38:21-04:00","updated_at":"2026-06-23T13:12:32-04:00","is_pbo":true,"is_dpbo":false,"firstname":"Annette","lastname":"Ryan","bio_en":"Annette Ryan is the Parliamentary Budget Officer of Canada.\n\nShe previously held numerous senior public service roles with experience in economic analysis, fiscal policy, taxation, financial crime and public finance. Over the course of her career, she worked across several federal and provincial departments - leading major policy, regulatory, analytical, and operational functions that support evidence-based public finance and economic governance. She began her career doing empirical research on business performance and labour productivity at the Institute for Fiscal Studies in London, UK.\n\nMs. Ryan holds a Bachelor of Arts in Mathematics (Honours) from Acadia University and a Master of Philosophy in Economics from Oxford University, where she studied as a Rhodes Scholar.","bio_fr":"Annette Ryan est la directrice parlementaire du budget du Canada.\n\nPr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, elle a occup\u00e9 de nombreux postes de haute direction dans la fonction publique, o\u00f9 elle a acquis une exp\u00e9rience dans les domaines de l\u2019analyse \u00e9conomique, de la politique budg\u00e9taire, de la fiscalit\u00e9, de la criminalit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re et des finances publiques. Au cours de sa carri\u00e8re, elle a travaill\u00e9 au sein de plusieurs minist\u00e8res f\u00e9d\u00e9raux et provinciaux, o\u00f9 elle a dirig\u00e9 d\u2019importantes fonctions strat\u00e9giques, r\u00e9glementaires, analytiques et op\u00e9rationnelles visant \u00e0 soutenir une gouvernance \u00e9conomique et des finances publiques fond\u00e9es sur des donn\u00e9es probantes. Elle a commenc\u00e9 sa carri\u00e8re en menant des recherches empiriques sur le rendement des entreprises et la productivit\u00e9 du travail \u00e0 l\u2019Institute for Fiscal Studies de Londres, au Royaume-Uni.\n\nMme Ryan est titulaire d\u2019un baccalaur\u00e9at \u00e8s arts en math\u00e9matiques (avec distinction) de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Acadia et d\u2019une ma\u00eetrise en \u00e9conomie de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 d\u2019Oxford, qu\u2019elle a fr\u00e9quent\u00e9e \u00e0 titre de boursi\u00e8re de la fondation Rhodes.","optout_show_photography_online":null,"optout_tag_on_social_media":null,"optout_show_in_public_staff_list":null,"pronouns":["she","her","elle"],"suffixes":[],"sortable_name":"Ryan, Annette","title_en":"Parliamentary Budget Officer","title_fr":"Directrice parlementaire du budget","phone":"613-992-8026","pictures":{"small":null,"medium":null,"large":null,"medium_square":null,"small_square":null},"is_archived":false,"user":{"id":95,"name":"Ryan, Annette","email":"annette.ryan@parl.gc.ca","phone":null,"title":null,"created_at":"2026-04-23T16:36:04.000000Z","updated_at":"2026-10-16T20:58:05.000000Z","role":"staff"}}}],"bills":[],"labels":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2627002S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - June 2026},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2026,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2627002S,\n author={Kpekou Tossou, Rolande and Nicol, Caroline and Scholz, Tim and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Juin 2026},\n institution={Bureau de la directrice parlementaire du budget},\n year=2026,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}