Chris Matier

Publications récentes

{"id":"RP-2425-030-S","is_published":"2025-03-05T13:57:08.000000Z","release_date":"2025-03-05T14:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 March 2025","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 Mars 2025","internal_id":"RP-2425-030-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"There is considerable uncertainty regarding breadth, depth, and duration of a potential global trade conflict. As such, this Economic and Fiscal Outlook does not include threatened U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from Canada and other countries. However, PBO has prepared a scenario for parliamentarians\u2019 consideration.","fr":"Il existe une incertitude consid\u00e9rable quant \u00e0 l\u2019ampleur, \u00e0 la profondeur et \u00e0 la dur\u00e9e d\u2019un \u00e9ventuel conflit commercial mondial. Ainsi, les pr\u00e9sentes Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res ne couvrent pas les droits de douane que les \u00c9tats Unis menacent d\u2019imposer ni les mesures de r\u00e9torsion envisag\u00e9es par le Canada et d\u2019autres pays. Toutefois, le DPB a pr\u00e9par\u00e9 un sc\u00e9nario pour la gouverne des parlementaires."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the Canadian economy to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2025, as uncertainty and slowing population growth weigh on business investment and consumer spending.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne conna\u00eetra en 2025 une croissance de 1,7 %, alors que l\u2019incertitude et le ralentissement de la croissance d\u00e9mographique freineront les investissements des entreprises et les d\u00e9penses de consommation."}},{"content":{"en":"With ongoing excess supply in the economy, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected to remain near target. PBO anticipates the Bank of Canada will reduce its policy rate by another 25 basis points to reach its estimated neutral level of 2.75 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.","fr":"Compte tenu de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire persistante dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie, on s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que l\u2019inflation mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019Indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) reste pr\u00e8s de sa cible. Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la Banque du Canada r\u00e9duira son taux directeur de 25 points de base afin qu\u2019il atteigne son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 de 2,75 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the budgetary deficit to fall to $50.1 billion (1.6 per cent of the gross domestic product or GDP) in 2024-25 from the $61.9 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) deficit recorded in 2023-24. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $24.6 billion (0.7 per cent of GDP) in 2029-30.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire sera de 50,1 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut, ou PIB) en 2024 2025, une baisse par rapport au d\u00e9ficit de 61,9 milliards de dollars (2,1 % du PIB) en 2023-2024. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit devrait reprendre sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 24,6 milliards de dollars (0,7 % du PIB) en 2029-2030."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to fall slightly from its 2023-24 level of 42.1 per cent, reaching 41.9 per cent in 2024-25 and 41.6 per cent in 2025-26. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.2 per cent in 2029-30 but remain well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB baissera l\u00e9g\u00e8rement par rapport au ratio de 42,1 % en 2023-2024 et qu\u2019il atteindra 41,9 % en 2024 2025 et 41,6 % en 2025-2026. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,2 % en 2029-2030, ce qui demeure bien sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) will rise to 10.8 per cent in 2024-25 from 10.3 per cent in 2023-24. PBO projects the debt service ratio to increase further, reaching 11.3 per cent in 2029-30\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes totales) passera \u00e0 10,8 % en 2024 2025, alors qu\u2019il s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 10,3 % en 2023-2024. Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette augmentera encore et qu\u2019il atteindra 11,3 % en 2029 2030, soit bien au-dessus de son creux de 7,0 % enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie en 2018-2019."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-03-05T13:57:08.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-030-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2025--perspectives-economiques-financieres-mars-2025"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/92c62a1693230bf441637127bc5435ebfc63bce9e2989c5672bfd8f0ba540a4e"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/4865417355d8eb36abc3407d84838c625c8766ba5bfce1967f358c32d79b32b3"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d39082e5b906d8a1df6ea5d97eed6f5c5bebc932ec8573cc34e40e97a50fd296","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3b0f430fb5b27bdb1f5d366dbf081cac227535726b9bcfe7c92c27a37b0ba35a","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/78ad65afd599e253699c810bcf257c4d256f66201feafd180b4faaf2bec918b9","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/439e9d192bd566d21cc854bf58e9df9d74a2f479b09953161df9cc7e85680329","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9c75d60a6360aca44f040daecaf3f0648f666043cfdf1f5ea8199586884848e4","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0051404e79e6220140ba494b3d50c5f5a3e230f712657cd34b669570ea0ce031","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/17bfa4c12eb452794c7e7101d7657b10b510efcadbb89e0a3539bf88b6c77983","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/751b7cb7c1cbe2262e60e0482da3aafe3db33a8176e6d5473e89c70634c0207d"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5bb705586729f04b7984ff228369030171069c6859a81050a952cd3698a4ddc8","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/05f86e3e14dbd02f89fc985507df5188938cf17ebb8580b4750c7829096b01a7","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6d5afcfe975eb297ea0558eb9400122b7e750bae2e2dd8d90920b96186f20175","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6cfd380fb7ae595734b693cbc84f9b5c10b3a44550bdce5a751f9f73d50af9ae","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5f0ed8ac00e8622257090aeeccae98b5118fa5af555aef9662649e52edbd9ad0","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b60f883c36ddfac376cd4637dc20c03eb94295b82461ca0cd891be56237991d","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6ba29c9215861d68294c86ef5b83f9dd9d47ba1ebde03011ada025a496ae6c19","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b333fd95210f9037e19a81a1ed4b05edbad61fdc18feb551a2ecdb4cf63c2711"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425030S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Matier, Chris and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2025},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425030S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Matier, Chris and McGoey, Matthew and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Scholz, Tim and Vrhovsek, Zachary},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - Mars 2025},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2425-027-S","is_published":"2025-01-30T13:57:02.000000Z","release_date":"2025-01-30T14:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Stress Testing the Government\u2019s Fiscal Anchor and Fiscal Objective","title_fr":"Test de r\u00e9sistance du point d\u2019ancrage budg\u00e9taire et de l\u2019objectif budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement","internal_id":"RP-2425-027-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a \u201cstress test\u201d of the Government\u2019s fiscal anchor and fiscal objective by estimating the likelihood that the Government\u2019s fiscal plan presented in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement, when subject to both economic and fiscal shocks, will reduce the federal debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term and will keep deficits below 1 per cent of GDP beginning in 2026-27.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport propose un \u00ab test de r\u00e9sistance \u00bb du point d\u2019ancrage budg\u00e9taire et de l\u2019objectif budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement en estimant la probabilit\u00e9 que, soumis \u00e0 des chocs \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires, le plan budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 dans l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2024 r\u00e9duise le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB \u00e0 moyen terme et maintienne les d\u00e9ficits en de\u00e7\u00e0 de 1 % du PIB \u00e0 compter de 2026-2027.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"Based on historical shocks to debt drivers and the baseline projection from the 2024 Fall Economic Statement, PBO estimates that there is a 61 per cent chance that the Government\u2019s fiscal anchor will be achieved over the medium term. That is, there is a 61 per cent chance that the federal debt-to-GDP ratio in 2029-30 will be below its 2023-24 level of 42.1 per cent.","fr":"En se fondant sur les chocs qui, dans le pass\u00e9, ont touch\u00e9 les facteurs de la dette et sur la projection de base de l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2024, le DPB estime que la probabilit\u00e9 que le point d\u2019ancrage budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement soit atteint \u00e0 moyen terme est de 61 %. Autrement dit, la probabilit\u00e9 que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB en 2029-2030 soit inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau de 2023-2024, \u00e0 savoir 42,1 %, est de 61 %."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO estimates that there is an 18 per cent chance that the Government\u2019s fiscal objective will be achieved. That is, there is an 18 per cent chance that deficits in each and every year over 2026-27 to 2029-30 will not exceed 1 per cent of GDP.","fr":"Le DPB estime que la probabilit\u00e9 que l\u2019objectif budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement soit atteint est de 18 %. En d\u2019autres termes, la probabilit\u00e9 que les d\u00e9ficits de chaque ann\u00e9e entre 2026-2027 et 2029-2030 ne d\u00e9passent pas 1 % du PIB est de 18 %."}},{"content":{"en":"To increase the probability of achieving the Government\u2019s fiscal anchor to 80 per cent, PBO estimates that additional fiscal adjustment of 1.3 percentage points of GDP, phased in gradually over the medium term, would be required. This would represent $50 billion in higher revenues or lower program spending by 2029-30 relative to the Government\u2019s fiscal plan presented in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement.","fr":"Pour porter \u00e0 80 % la probabilit\u00e9 que le point d\u2019ancrage budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement soit atteint, le DPB estime qu\u2019un ajustement budg\u00e9taire suppl\u00e9mentaire de 1,3 point de pourcentage du PIB, mis en \u0153uvre progressivement \u00e0 moyen terme, serait n\u00e9cessaire. Cela repr\u00e9senterait 50 milliards de dollars de revenus suppl\u00e9mentaires ou de r\u00e9duction des charges de programmes d\u2019ici 2029-2030 par rapport au plan budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 dans l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne de 2024."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-01-30T16:33:36.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-027-S--stress-testing-government-fiscal-anchor-fiscal-objective--test-resistance-point-ancrage-budgetaire-objectif-budgetaire-gouvernement","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-027-S--stress-testing-government-fiscal-anchor-fiscal-objective--test-resistance-point-ancrage-budgetaire-objectif-budgetaire-gouvernement","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-027-S--stress-testing-government-fiscal-anchor-fiscal-objective--test-resistance-point-ancrage-budgetaire-objectif-budgetaire-gouvernement"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-027-S--stress-testing-government-fiscal-anchor-fiscal-objective--test-resistance-point-ancrage-budgetaire-objectif-budgetaire-gouvernement","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-027-S--stress-testing-government-fiscal-anchor-fiscal-objective--test-resistance-point-ancrage-budgetaire-objectif-budgetaire-gouvernement"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/71b51a81170b08a4fe88cb15538ae4908495275ca31077cba7f79bfb5679933e"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/90a93c0b11c0e9d7154994f75f69db9072795af64825d4b4257ee536e9be731e"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1f24e98b688b6687283ebd74b07c8ab98a80057c6054d4340c60d23fa4514b56","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/11ac1a65b6806dc078e9fdae6008f033120a8700bcbced91aa62ae7beb01e4c9","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/280014347657a8dca6e5a9ce97bb092906402313ff0e351b2cc264025a62aa14","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0740082995a65d18f87e67ca9914565c2443b470a9ff2fb07ebbbec211f3015a","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7fc78c853a87d2555c61ac9b4f634acf13b8e7e1b0b05961f6d8e3585785da5d","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/943353afbf22bd3b8b555f1f85733e4b70040916e0bf0731d2086502557f97dd","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4e7b845ac63d504d6200c8465639d4c4edb4cbcd29fa6037e3504ad693a8835c","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e1e383c4597a89fa518c1951663b4edba279777ccf91983e598cbf7d253be94e"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8494ac3f9b406cd8cbc5fe965c3bf41267feb814af9c8973f3b1f7576a354244","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d47d1545c3361efe9552b3294c4b333b395e494b83fcbe586685f62da5518007","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f19f3ce78fe004a073033a7fd2fffb15c1c332f8b4224dd8df305057152e0bde","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5cfd172a0bce51bec89e2b50fcdeb99d88606549d7aa4d975ffea58a463fe47f","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a3bec5cd688f4ce7bf18b2c33ab8ae052cc2236f2c089b37328b3061fb74b4af","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/28c84d2b381411c95dc8a43b7f40a041739148a1e772939b058bbf8b2b626a04","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e1076a8da6294c9540af047d07fc86018918f81ea3d028779f99176987d0cd40","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ab28d5a5bd1ac114ec9732ae4ffef7a235210e8d60e6c02ec10380e9ca7918c7"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425027S,\n author={Matier, Chris and Perrault, Louis},\n title={Stress Testing the Government\u2019s Fiscal Anchor and Fiscal Objective},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425027S,\n author={Matier, Chris and Perrault, Louis},\n title={Test de r\\\u0027{e}sistance du point d\u2019ancrage budg\\\u0027{e}taire et de l\u2019objectif budg\\\u0027{e}taire du gouvernement},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2425-026-S","is_published":"2025-01-22T13:57:09.000000Z","release_date":"2025-01-22T14:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Fall Economic Statement: Issues for Parliamentarians","title_fr":"\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne : enjeux pour les parlementaires","internal_id":"RP-2425-026-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This note flags issues regarding the 2024 Fall Economic Statement that may be of interest to parliamentarians.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent document souligne les enjeux relatifs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2024 qui pourraient int\u00e9resser les parlementaires.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"As the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimated last year, the Government\u2019s 2023-24 budgetary deficit was worse than Budget 2024 indicated.","fr":"Comme le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) l\u2019a estim\u00e9 l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement pour 2023-2024 a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus important que ce qu\u2019indiquait le budget de 2024."}},{"content":{"en":"Given the uncertain and volatile global context, the Government\u2019s economic scenarios downplay risks.","fr":"Compte tenu du contexte mondial incertain et volatil, les sc\u00e9narios \u00e9conomiques du gouvernement minimisent les risques."}},{"content":{"en":"The demographic assumptions underpinning the Fall Economic Statement\u2019s economic projection are not transparent, and likely inconsistent with current Government policy.","fr":"Les hypoth\u00e8ses d\u00e9mographiques qui sous-tendent les projections \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne ne sont pas transparentes et sont probablement incompatibles avec la politique actuelle du gouvernement."}},{"content":{"en":"Expenses for contingent liabilities continue to grow and are an increasing source of fiscal risk.","fr":"Les d\u00e9penses li\u00e9es aux passifs \u00e9ventuels continuent d\u2019augmenter et constituent une source croissante de risque budg\u00e9taire."}},{"content":{"en":"The Public Service\u2019s ability to produce timely, high-quality Public Accounts is deteriorating.","fr":"La capacit\u00e9 de la fonction publique \u00e0 produire des Comptes publics de qualit\u00e9 en temps opportun diminue."}}]},"updated_at":"2025-01-22T13:57:09.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-026-S--fall-economic-statement-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-enjeux-parlementaires","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-026-S--fall-economic-statement-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-026-S--fall-economic-statement-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-enjeux-parlementaires"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-026-S--fall-economic-statement-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-enjeux-parlementaires","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-026-S--fall-economic-statement-issues-parliamentarians--enonce-economique-automne-enjeux-parlementaires"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/e22814aa669e188941023816ff341d588091dab3810b968d3a3c14c2f3966e65"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/7f4e4c1445dc7f72d2f02123c754d6ed0ddfc5e23c7f8590bc05e05d3879c22e"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/871af76fcfedec587e0f72d35d6e7208c83f3110e34a2ac3753b64bc3fa2ef4a","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3b2f4b0f0f44cee63642f540f0fc97fe2216b7e2f4550b5a65326e496d1d2607","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7218909e42a43931a0fbc4b3d405cff6e83002aa3702742e8ea03eb7160b08a8","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/660af6632e735a16b73cf1a2a651ce759295eba178c36e26dca9b1fa292ade90","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a84997c3b2d54b57c5bf2030d4e19f1e56ce1f88f09a62570b4c028e41bb6bb2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a7d18edd1edfb22c92f9822f3c2930db25c233e79ed2d6a4b249484e8120b7be","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ac4b3699dbf6a84de996cfbc442161aefaeab297176515c0f8a4187f68182dd7","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f5a1f0e3c21201ba2dc62a095ae0364023f12ed1d5dfea27b17b2080eb9ac6f9"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6a79536fd2e63ecfc1c0f521071fd469a9aa7f05795e01913eaee0d08e2c6fc2","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ee3ab80b6833d81961c9a50a8fe3177c9e64ea1f8e4b37b980723ffcdab76dae","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5abd2d18aaa7fc58cd9d13819000d9b4d24356738c5b2dde591faa739f066aab","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a73660d8cce0ab8fa2269064ed2647eea4bf1e11a35081b55d2e9517f7d51cf8","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/79b95734d043bd35a967a6619605ed5939aab7868db10447f50d8ebd8f7e68b9","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/201597cbaf3d17d2dfd911fe2dc6bf126d3a7e40138e35554201dd3477a77890","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/50ad02df5aeddb34a17359ce74423453512ef994eb208002cdab1b8ee990a2b6","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3eec8c59b6d1259c079936a6d653eb7f9cf5d4fe02fa3b13d23ac9e1a96db8cb"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425026S,\n author={Behrend, Robert and Matier, Chris and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={Fall Economic Statement: Issues for Parliamentarians},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425026S,\n author={Behrend, Robert and Matier, Chris and Nicol, Caroline and Sourang, Diarra},\n title={\\\u0027{E}nonc\\\u0027{e} \\\u0027{e}conomique de l\u2019automne : enjeux pour les parlementaires},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2025,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2425-018-S","is_published":"2024-10-17T12:57:02.000000Z","release_date":"2024-10-17T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Economic and Fiscal Outlook \u2013 October 2024","title_fr":"Perspectives \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res \u2013 octobre 2024","internal_id":"RP-2425-018-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une projection de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour aider les parlementaires \u00e0 \u00e9valuer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires possibles dans le cadre des politiques actuelles.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"PBO projects growth in the Canadian economy to remain tepid in 2024. Interest rates will continue to restrain growth in consumer spending and business investment. We expect real GDP growth will rebound to 2.2 per cent in 2025, as lower borrowing costs provide a boost to consumer spending and business investment, and exports pickup.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que la croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne demeurera modeste en 2024. Les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat continueront de freiner la croissance des d\u00e9penses de consommation et des investissements des entreprises. Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la croissance du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el rebondisse \u00e0 2,2 % en 2025, car la baisse des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt stimule les d\u00e9penses de consommation et les investissements des entreprises, et encourage la reprise des exportations."}},{"content":{"en":"With the ongoing excess supply in the economy, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is on track to return to its 2 per cent target. We anticipate the Bank of Canada will continue to gradually reduce its policy rate until it reaches its estimated neutral level of 2.75 percent in the second quarter of 2025.","fr":"Compte tenu de l\u2019offre exc\u00e9dentaire persistante au sein de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, l\u2019inflation mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019Indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation est en voie de revenir \u00e0 sa cible de 2 %. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que la Banque du Canada continuera de r\u00e9duire progressivement son taux directeur jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019il atteigne son niveau neutre estim\u00e9 \u00e0 2,75 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025."}},{"content":{"en":"We estimate that there was a budgetary deficit of $46.8 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) in 2023-24. For the current fiscal year, 2024-25, PBO projects the budgetary deficit to slightly decline to $46.4 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) under status quo policy. Assuming no new measures are introduced, and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the deficit is projected to resume its downward trajectory, falling to $22.5 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) in 2029-30.","fr":"Nous estimons qu\u2019il y avait un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 46,8 milliards de dollars (1,6 % du PIB) en 2023-2024. Pour l\u2019exercice financier en cours, soit 2024-2025, le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire diminuera l\u00e9g\u00e8rement \u00e0 46,4 milliards de dollars (1,5 % du PIB) dans le cadre d\u0027une politique de statu quo. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait revenir sur sa trajectoire descendante et passer \u00e0 22,5 milliards de dollars (0,6 % du PIB) en 2029-2030."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO expects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to be 42.2 per cent in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Assuming no new measures and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the federal debt ratio is projected to fall to 39.0 per cent in 2029-30, well above its pre-pandemic level of 31.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale au PIB restera \u00e0 42,2 % en 2024-2025. En supposant qu\u2019aucune nouvelle mesure ne soit prise et que les mesures temporaires existantes prennent fin comme pr\u00e9vu, le ratio de la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devrait atteindre 39,0 % en 2029-2030, ce qui est bien sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, qui \u00e9tait de 31,2 % du PIB en 2019-2020."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO projects the debt service ratio (that is, public debt charges relative to total revenues) to rise to 10.6 in 2024-25 from 10.3 per cent in 2023-24. As the effective interest rate on debt edges higher in 2024-25, we project the debt service ratio to increase further and reach 11.2 per cent in 2029-30\u2014well above its pre-pandemic record low of 7.0 per cent in 2018-19.","fr":"Le DPB pr\u00e9voit que le ratio du service de la dette (soit le rapport entre les frais de la dette publique et les recettes totales) passera \u00e0 10,6 % en 2024-2025, alors qu\u2019il s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 10,3 % en 2023-2024. Comme le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat effectif sur la dette est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en 2024-2025, nous pr\u00e9voyons que le ratio du service de la dette augmentera encore et qu\u2019il atteindra 11,2 % en 2029-2030, soit bien au dessus de son creux record de 7,0 % enregistr\u00e9 avant la pand\u00e9mie en 2018-2019."}}]},"updated_at":"2024-10-17T12:57:02.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-018-S--economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2024--perspectives-economiques-financieres-octobre-2024"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/78ce079f881ed107be7389eca371c9c0b21752840065265538f30a75466327d0"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/17e763792632c01620f1be9013979a56278f652c6ac6c3bbbffdfa5c47ba76e7"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2227ae47016244d7fee6979ff55819dcb53a12859eb1cad58eda51e4e02693eb","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f6cc3cc16c055321966c155117bd8575a3b39b5a111db7d24b971fc55f4fae72","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d94c00f588acaf2837e7f7fe9a8074d6d18a092766ac0c0381446bb6bea46cbe","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/71a466f30c420eaa90bc7d53c42a853930242594d1e357e88c47619b3ec85f78","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5d029a2ada90cd0b8ad1e0ff0670fb2699006a85fa494976d25b358ca06e04b5","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/40e014410224941454565d72f05e42781305917f04385a6f96fb9d73cf1f5b99","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0014eeb7527086482703320a87481ebaa58838710c878ba50e918d40eb36e001","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/27a7b5cf8a2a9d6030896935105ed5322d03659942d6302299f901dd4d5e7b58"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9cc31e3071cdd2ed8031d0508f7bc7c32f9d24e16c1a5716cc5036aec5d1e27e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bfdd900a0556836b9c37ce2d272d4ab95b075b4f98e79a55f074bd172129b6a4","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3ef5173adc96a6755a37f3c3423399dc6cd7a0d0d73ad634770a2f17dea8cb04","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4319f07362f23fde8ef5e89ccdd7db90da89fb7088461604dbd28401aa679049","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/16b425b08a6ab3f885215e818f5651d3d1b0a01985d4a7504d6ef10bf16377f3","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a4939d014cfac1a212b106edcb9bbf9c511a4b918191acdf339ca50675152ff8","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c8edc32eaeb43dd766d9732cc6bd78b5b41317afa461077c610a17a27d116b54","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eb1d8dc3dfc3f1729604a2d931f6ee96539be90eac2b435efcc202ad1d019963"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425018S,\n author={Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary and Matier, Chris},\n title={Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2024},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425018S,\n author={Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Dong, Matt and Elmarzougui, Eskandar and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and McGoey, Matthew and Michalyshyn, Katarina and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Robert-Lacroix, Ulysse and Stanton, Jason and Vrhovsek, Zachary and Matier, Chris},\n title={Perspectives \\\u0027{e}conomiques et financi\\`{e}res - octobre 2024},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2425-014-S","is_published":"2024-08-28T12:57:06.000000Z","release_date":"2024-08-28T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Fiscal Sustainability Report 2024","title_fr":"Rapport sur la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de 2024","internal_id":"RP-2425-014-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides PBO\u2019s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.","abstract_fr":"Dans le rapport qui suit, le DPB pr\u00e9sente son \u00e9valuation de la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re \u00e0 long terme du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, des administrations infranationales et des r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"From the perspective of the total general government sector, that is federal and subnational governments and public pension plans combined, current fiscal policy in Canada is sustainable over the long term. Relative to the size of the Canadian economy, total general government net debt is projected to decline steadily over the long term due to fiscal room at the federal level and to rising net asset positions in the public pension plans.","fr":"En ce qui concerne le secteur des administrations publiques consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un tout, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, les administrations infranationales et les r\u00e9gimes de retraite g\u00e9n\u00e9raux pris ensemble, la politique budg\u00e9taire actuelle au Canada est viable \u00e0 long terme. Par rapport \u00e0 la taille de l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne, la dette publique g\u00e9n\u00e9rale nette devrait diminuer progressivement \u00e0 long terme en raison de la marge de man\u0153uvre financi\u00e8re au niveau f\u00e9d\u00e9ral et de l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la situation de l\u2019actif net des r\u00e9gimes de retraite publics."}},{"content":{"en":"Current fiscal policy at the federal level is sustainable over the long term. We estimate that the federal government could permanently increase spending or reduce taxes by 1.5 per cent of GDP ($46 billion in current dollars, growing in line with GDP thereafter) while maintaining fiscal sustainability.","fr":"La politique budg\u00e9taire f\u00e9d\u00e9rale actuelle est viable \u00e0 long terme. Nous estimons que le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral pourrait augmenter ses d\u00e9penses ou r\u00e9duire les imp\u00f4ts de 1,5 % du PIB (46 milliards de dollars en dollars courants, augmentant par la suite au rythme du PIB) tout en demeurant viable sur le plan budg\u00e9taire."}},{"content":{"en":"For the subnational government sector, which includes provincial-territorial, local and Indigenous governments, current fiscal policy is sustainable over the long term. Under current policy, projected subnational government revenues and program spending are sufficient to keep the subnational government net debt-to-GDP ratio below its 2023 level over the 75-year projection horizon.","fr":"Pour ce qui est des administrations infranationales, qui comprennent les administrations provinciales-territoriales, locales et autochtones, les politiques budg\u00e9taires actuelles sont viables \u00e0 long terme. Selon la politique actuelle, les revenus et les d\u00e9penses de programmes pr\u00e9vus des administrations infranationales sont suffisantes pour maintenir le ratio de la dette nette par rapport au PIB des administrations infranationales en dessous de son niveau de 2023 pour l\u2019horizon de 75 ans."}},{"content":{"en":"The current structure of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) is sustainable over the long term. Under the current structure of the plans, projected contributions and benefits are sufficient to ensure that the net asset-to-GDP position is above its 2023 value after 75 years.","fr":"La structure actuelle tant du R\u00e9gime de pensions du Canada (RPC) que du R\u00e9gime de rentes du Qu\u00e9bec (RRQ) est viable \u00e0 long terme. Avec la structure actuelle des r\u00e9gimes, les cotisations et les prestations pr\u00e9vues sont suffisantes pour garantir que la position nette de l\u2019actif par rapport au PIB est sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 sa valeur de 2023 apr\u00e8s 75 ans."}}]},"updated_at":"2024-08-28T15:28:11.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2425-014-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2024--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2024","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-014-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2024--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2425-014-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2024--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2024"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-014-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2024--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2024","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2425-014-S--fiscal-sustainability-report-2024--rapport-viabilite-financiere-2024"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/17e59c636036ab66462ec8f935c66672f417b0049e135c8a3fee279aa33b719e"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/c929dc790c39be70bbf68c688da0acdd6b2e82dff8431f93c42da807d132334f"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5745fff800723f9c46c24f4b335cb13d575250429408f880e64e393aa3241d15","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ac93ab2effb4ce8c070e641ad683a41f407cacc359cf087ca670b846167dd229","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/48d912c1374f66cdecec0570edee2b59af4dcecbb0269636e83229de1eb2b941","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b5ba91d53481df7da8b586481597c7dc5ff28e32962636737bb093212ec0d48b","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f846338280998ff698a07f89abf9f2af88df3c9537f4ca6a35124b6062d21041","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b82e08bf27188b942f2d746679992d10934af4343f85074ebc189f0bd9da2b8c","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/7e03b9657c21d3042718f574a236fe9bd1008b945313f744cdbf724c35d9a9b8","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/39b91dc5dcfc0e2d23a96d1babced62c2c4fa5319c735c35a6570d6444ed08f4"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/aa1c5147ce20f3aa9dd4d014350fddc50a7f6c45de2434f44cbf7a55da88b7ac","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9f2de4edc248bf1f9981090de3bfb30d24a6bdd0ee8999d3fff1059c64fff804","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/16617de4ea5dd5257bd56cec7d387842c190e781084df42e383db37d788c350f","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a1a70b33a7631777879323744d8f4b035cebd9dff99653c6052d5f7a46b80130","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dd236d1ec5b79a8e525f5c4e7c813789016882ee8462dc27a8d39d96b39d2525","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f9b79c819055adbf4c783549b1e79d5db253bce2117032f06970deec8d98ac94","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2740d049ac02ffc3d99fa79442e4d9d7eea9f37e35d52ddb77004132be6054b0","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b7965b744c3a7bd2267bbebd74242b5decaaa626d0ac458fee75f5e27646b355"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2425014S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Fiscal Sustainability Report 2024},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2425014S,\n author={Barkova, Lisa and Cl\\\u0027{e}ophat, R\\\u0027{e}gine and Creighton, Mark and Kho, Albert and Laurin, Marianne and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Rapport sur la viabilit\\\u0027{e} financi\\`{e}re de 2024},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-023-S","is_published":"2024-01-12T13:57:11.000000Z","release_date":"2024-01-12T14:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Income dynamics of new immigrants to Canada","title_fr":"Dynamique des revenus des nouveaux immigrants au Canada","internal_id":"RP-2324-023-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report highlights some recent changes in the relative income of new immigrants to Canada. During the period 2014 to 2018 their relative income went from 55 per cent to 78 per cent of that of all Canadian tax filers. We explore some of the characteristics of that change (source countries, destination province, education and occupation, etc.) and a potential impact on measured productivity growth of Canada.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport met en lumi\u00e8re certains changements r\u00e9cents dans le revenu relatif des nouveaux immigrants au Canada. Entre 2014 et 2018, leur revenu relatif est pass\u00e9 de 55 \u00e0 78 % de celui de l\u2019ensemble des d\u00e9clarants canadiens. Nous examinons certaines des caract\u00e9ristiques de ce changement (pays d\u2019origine, province de destination, \u00e9tudes et profession, etc.) et son incidence possible sur la croissance de la productivit\u00e9 mesur\u00e9e au Canada.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The federal government announced substantial increases in its planned immigration targets: reaching 500 thousand people for the years 2025 and 2026. In this report, we look at some recent evolution of median total incomes of new immigrants so as to inform expectations regarding that policy change.","fr":"Le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral a annonc\u00e9 une augmentation substantielle de ses cibles d\u2019immigration pr\u00e9vues, soit 500 000 personnes pour les ann\u00e9es 2025 et 2026. Dans ce rapport, nous examinons l\u2019\u00e9volution r\u00e9cente du revenu total m\u00e9dian des nouveaux immigrants afin d\u2019\u00e9clairer les attentes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de ce changement de politique"}},{"content":{"en":"From 2014 to 2018 the median total income of new-immigrant tax-filers rose from 55 per cent of the median total income of all tax-filers, to 78 per cent.","fr":"De 2014 \u00e0 2018, le revenu total m\u00e9dian des nouveaux immigrants qui ont rempli une d\u00e9claration de revenu est pass\u00e9 de 55 \u00e0 78 % du revenu total m\u00e9dian de l\u2019ensemble des d\u00e9clarants."}},{"content":{"en":"Trends driving that change include greater pre-landing Canadian work experience, a shift of source-countries to south Asia, and greater family connections of incoming migrants. These trends are discernible from the mid-2000s.","fr":"Les tendances \u00e0 l\u2019origine de ce changement comprennent une plus grande exp\u00e9rience de travail au Canada avant l\u2019\u00e9tablissement, un d\u00e9placement des pays sources vers l\u2019Asie du Sud et un plus grand nombre de liens familiaux des migrants entrants. Ces tendances sont perceptibles depuis le milieu des ann\u00e9es 2000."}},{"content":{"en":"Immigrants from India made the largest contribution to that gain.","fr":"Les immigrants de l\u2019Inde ont contribu\u00e9 le plus \u00e0 ce gain."}},{"content":{"en":"The increase in relative income is dominated by professional groups such as engineers, applied scientists, etc.","fr":"L\u2019augmentation du revenu relatif touche majoritairement des groupes professionnels comme les ing\u00e9nieurs, les chercheurs en sciences appliqu\u00e9es, etc."}},{"content":{"en":"A disproportionate share of the reduced income gap between new immigrants and all tax filers (45% in 2014, versus 22% in 2018) is attributable to those living in Ontario.","fr":"Une part disproportionn\u00e9e de la r\u00e9duction de l\u2019\u00e9cart de revenu entre les nouveaux immigrants et l\u2019ensemble des d\u00e9clarants (45 % en 2014, comparativement \u00e0 22 % en 2018) est attribuable aux personnes vivant en Ontario."}},{"content":{"en":"Lower relative incomes of new immigrants could create a temporary drag on Canadian measured productivity growth through a compositional effect. Though that effect would be removed as the cohort of new immigrants integrate into the labour force, the arrival of new immigrants each year would re-initiate the impact. The recent smaller gaps between the incomes of new immigrants and the Canadian median could reduce that compositional effect on measured productivity. At the outer bound, productivity growth in Canada could be increased by as much as 0.21 percentage points if the gap were eliminated.","fr":"Les revenus relatifs plus faibles des nouveaux immigrants pourraient freiner temporairement la croissance de la productivit\u00e9 mesur\u00e9e au Canada par le biais d\u2019un effet de composition. Bien que cet effet serait \u00e9limin\u00e9 \u00e0 mesure que la cohorte de nouveaux immigrants s\u2019int\u00e8gre \u00e0 la population active, l\u2019arriv\u00e9e de nouveaux immigrants chaque ann\u00e9e r\u00e9activerait l\u2019incidence. La r\u00e9duction r\u00e9cente de l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les revenus des nouveaux immigrants et la m\u00e9diane canadienne pourrait r\u00e9duire cet effet de composition sur la productivit\u00e9 mesur\u00e9e. \u00c0 la limite ext\u00e9rieure, la croissance de la productivit\u00e9 au Canada pourrait augmenter jusqu\u2019\u00e0 0,21 point de pourcentage si l\u2019\u00e9cart \u00e9tait \u00e9limin\u00e9."}}]},"updated_at":"2024-03-21T22:13:20.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2324-023-S--income-dynamics-new-immigrants-canada--dynamique-revenus-nouveaux-immigrants-canada","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-023-S--income-dynamics-new-immigrants-canada--dynamique-revenus-nouveaux-immigrants-canada","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-023-S--income-dynamics-new-immigrants-canada--dynamique-revenus-nouveaux-immigrants-canada"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-023-S--income-dynamics-new-immigrants-canada--dynamique-revenus-nouveaux-immigrants-canada","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-023-S--income-dynamics-new-immigrants-canada--dynamique-revenus-nouveaux-immigrants-canada"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/e44babfd5c3811a7d6abb04890ce04c5cddb1752f3a1d18463c8446d5bfa03ce"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/d19264b2f22d0d1fbef14936f313562a7eb81ac7b5343b7c361bb56b2a737255"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c60cfac989e3f8a8283fb346d2fce754658e56f6eecb0c415bfd7ae7b98e159b","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a2f7d37e3c22a6775a4bc3f44f3ca421015e91985a79708e91bdb8e5377c4b51","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1b412fbd00b394be4184a1ba9263ad3bc48c18f29d75d77e48cd37af0a38728b","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cd84d77ce0803664a687aa2af3851c45abab9104176c70472837dfc272bd94a9","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/de3aef412bfc3b1e1fde7dee277268b519909f6560aa9cfd7b4d57046494c88f","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1f3e213d492e005a204cd637dba5f8fa92ad02ff93dd371576bc4f51bd0ba252","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/751ebeecc61ff571172b528de26ce0937c4c84e150b21577c2c01646937e6300","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c9fa4b4e942b52624af3a173ca6b6c6b9ec4abd15979bd8f33e8e1ea89d919f5"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/18d9890bb6c280820667fe8a89d478ef5f88e95210d45be8970a1f6a0d2db2c4","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/208d933ba0415308bfd51abe56982a5311498e5e76b39931ea65253ecee85482","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d5c6c3fc506b333b1e3d782ab704f9e9ee21b928b34ca3118a6bc21f2e270d42","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/24ec2498f2c3fbf5543bb45c8327424ca0b301237a77b9f7785500bef6d5c60e","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/642fbd22e92c4de1d054fce43e6ae8aabd33aade8ffcc9d106f15384a5444054","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/efcf1ae76fa3712046e617cc65049b4f45d62731b01c65e75ccb5e784298b960","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e990f7d23570a4ae71d3b725391490d58740d62673151621de6ffdbe5358db15","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/58a9998bd7195e468f18d8a52c199108019cd4b84a05c39d4fd2e514d3a6d32b"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324023S,\n author={Bagnoli, Philip and Matier, Chris and Yan, Xiaoyi},\n title={Income dynamics of new immigrants to Canada},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324023S,\n author={Bagnoli, Philip and Matier, Chris and Yan, Xiaoyi},\n title={Dynamique des revenus des nouveaux immigrants au Canada},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2024,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2324-008-S","is_published":"2023-06-14T12:27:03.000000Z","release_date":"2023-06-14T12:30:00.000000Z","title_en":"Fiscal Analysis of Canada\u2019s Support for Volkswagen\u2019s Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing Plant","title_fr":"Analyse financi\u00e8re du soutien du Canada \u00e0 la construction de l\u2019usine de fabrication de batteries pour v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques de Volkswagen","internal_id":"RP-2324-008-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"In response to interest from several Members of Parliament, this report provides a static cost estimate of the entirety of the Government of Canada\u2019s funding support for Volkswagen\u2019s electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant, as well as the economic and budgetary impacts of the plant\u2019s construction.","abstract_fr":"Afin de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat exprim\u00e9 par plusieurs d\u00e9put\u00e9s, le pr\u00e9sent rapport fournit une estimation statique des co\u00fbts de l\u2019ensemble du soutien financier apport\u00e9 par le gouvernement du Canada \u00e0 l\u2019usine de Volkswagen d\u00e9di\u00e9e \u00e0 la fabrication de batteries de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, ainsi que des r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires de cette construction.","highlights":[{"content":{"en":"The PBO estimates that the government will need to pay Volkswagen up to $16.3 billion over the period of the agreement.","fr":"Le DPB estime que le gouvernement devra verser \u00e0 Volkswagen jusqu\u0027\u00e0 16,3 milliards de dollars pendant la p\u00e9riode vis\u00e9e par l\u2019accord."}},{"content":{"en":"This report only examines the economic impact of the new facility\u2019s construction, which is marginal. We estimate that construction of the plant would increase real GDP by 0.01 per cent above its baseline projection by the end of 2027 and increase the level of employment by 1,400 jobs by that same time.","fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport n\u2019examine que les retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques de la construction de cette usine. Ces retomb\u00e9es sont marginales. Nous estimons que la construction de l\u2019usine augmenterait le PIB r\u00e9el de 0,01 % par rapport \u00e0 la projection de base d\u2019ici la fin de 2027 de m\u00eame que le niveau d\u2019emploi, avec 1 400 nouveaux postes d\u2019ici la m\u00eame \u00e9ch\u00e9ance."}},{"content":{"en":"The net budgetary impact of the plant\u2019s construction is expected to be approximately equal to the government\u2019s $0.7 billion contribution.","fr":"L\u2019incidence budg\u00e9taire nette de la construction de l\u2019usine devrait \u00eatre approximativement \u00e9gale \u00e0 la contribution du gouvernement (0,7 milliard de dollars)."}},{"content":{"en":"PBO continues to examine the government\u2019s support and will undertake an economic and fiscal analysis of the production support over the coming months.","fr":"Le DPB continue d\u2019examiner le soutien du gouvernement et entreprendra une analyse \u00e9conomique et financi\u00e8re du soutien \u00e0 la production au cours des prochains mois."}}]},"updated_at":"2023-06-14T12:27:03.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2324-008-S--fiscal-analysis-canada-support-volkswagen-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-plant--analyse-financiere-soutien-canada-construction-usine-fabrication-batteries-vehicules-electriques-vol"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/a3c5d4d96c20f870bb387b5acc23cef9aaffa368c8a7f704d6aff1f7a81fced1"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/edf2a11c09fe6cf48871e0c3396e1e16b0d8e5bc0cf0b02a793a67f869e18aa4"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/cf7a2a6ab7b7654f82939649c7947cb654cebc2fa2ac07eb683e50a814ef10e1","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3506cc4bfabeb05cef520a1426e14486c6706825cd73bbadc7c4fc602102ee71","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6ac12dd95d3a5811d4eee50eb19dc745050b7f15116b0cd68c595a5ea640d089","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/475548b5c45a574e2c86f7af9211562384d26b787d202572b0395ce4c6e4bd4c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/81721d6f5f470082b61e900fcc23cb9880c3adb743b5bbf3352a284adeee062a","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/21af4280a5a9357addaa0c47da5fcafe3dffc68dc2f8fe33cc53d4c4a2a28dca","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/c1fcf55f7b988f2a6a5025c0e02e2dfa7449ae48c6c402e18985df570252cdce","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d47cbd2b5fb693f3ee54cd30e2d09c41c878204687bc0c5b145ff3d77e2544ff"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4bf054e2367ba7376be9b80130b94096a4994d267e4abd1249e59ed65fd92bff","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f14488407d30a33eab6de2a3813e142bf47bcb35e87d1178a978ef4e443816e8","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/fb90b472be5a233ddbcbd05f19955d29e0a694de5b678701b94875f0d69d0552","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f2b883881916e91962325d7986fed2a919b123c5564623598b46a41bc985f74c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/069d2cdab81f32d51dcf659b35ee3c19e21f836fa9e6d4e607a16b73a4867489","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/38fc1724c66539af02bc53e70ac35422fcc1a2586ea4ecb943cb5c66f2a61b96","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/09e21417e79a7008c6c5039c0ccfe1ccb4390ecabf74d3672c9bb9ae4962c76d","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1a9a000087d517f09c75e87554212af83e2fa41128087dc2c9db6e8ee46d996e"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2324008S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Fiscal Analysis of Canada\u2019s Support for Volkswagen\u2019s Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing Plant},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2324008S,\n author={Giswold, Jill and Matier, Chris and Nahornick, Nora and Nicol, Caroline and Stanton, Jason},\n title={Analyse financi\\`{e}re du soutien du Canada \\`{a} la construction de l\u2019usine de fabrication de batteries pour v\\\u0027{e}hicules \\\u0027{e}lectriques de Volkswagen},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2023,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2021-035-S","is_published":"2021-01-26T20:16:02.000000Z","release_date":"2020-12-08T14:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Trans Mountain Pipeline \u2013 Financial and Economic Considerations \u2013 Update","title_fr":"Le pipeline Trans Mountain \u2013 Consid\u00e9rations financi\u00e8res et \u00e9conomiques \u2013 Mise \u00e0 jour","internal_id":"RP-2021-035-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"In January 2019, PBO released a [report](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-1819-392--canadas-purchase-of-the-trans-mountain--achat-du-pipeline-trans-mountain-par) assessing the Government of Canada\u2019s 2018 decision to acquire, expand, operate, and eventually divest of the Trans Mountain Pipeline system.\n\nThis report provides an updated financial valuation of the purchased assets, estimates the valuation\u2019s sensitivity to several key factors, and projects the economic impact of the Expansion Project\u2019s construction activities.","abstract_fr":"En janvier 2019, le DPB a publi\u00e9 un [rapport](https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-1819-392--canadas-purchase-of-the-trans-mountain--achat-du-pipeline-trans-mountain-par) \u00e9valuant la d\u00e9cision du gouvernement du Canada en 2018 d\u2019acheter, d\u2019agrandir, d\u2019exploiter puis de c\u00e9der le pipeline Trans Mountain.\n \nLe pr\u00e9sent rapport renferme une \u00e9valuation financi\u00e8re des actifs achet\u00e9s, une estimation de la sensibilit\u00e9 de cette \u00e9valuation \u00e0 plusieurs facteurs cl\u00e9s, et une estimation des retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques des activit\u00e9s de construction du projet d\u2019agrandissement du r\u00e9seau de Trans Mountain (PARTM).","highlights":null},"updated_at":"2021-01-26T20:16:02.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2021-035-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-financial-economic-considerations-update--pipeline-trans-mountain-considerations-financieres-economiques-mise-jour","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2021-035-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-financial-economic-considerations-update--pipeline-trans-mountain-considerations-financieres-economiques-mise-jour","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2021-035-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-financial-economic-considerations-update--pipeline-trans-mountain-considerations-financieres-economiques-mise-jour"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2021-035-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-financial-economic-considerations-update--pipeline-trans-mountain-considerations-financieres-economiques-mise-jour","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2021-035-S--trans-mountain-pipeline-financial-economic-considerations-update--pipeline-trans-mountain-considerations-financieres-economiques-mise-jour"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/92190f47fd14ad10e711d7e90963c3fbe28d48cfb2dc0195d8387d29694d37e0"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/161c970ff8b8b2005cf4fd3ddf6d3ee1414ecd197cfba82c51bc8b3c3e62d94f"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/951395938d9478621422cf55b938c96cdd80935b","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d0f36b1b017c701914214b466e1ee2eb7d6b3691","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/75881eb8ed36678e45803d39fecc8752482b4193","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/96c5fcd3ef412b8ea7d5364011bd0f9a5a8cd37c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ee964596a931c7bc582ab17502314ecf1233d0f2","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/eec64edb056af750f84324cb8f2062170514efb5","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/a2b99abb409862986eb4ba82a6dd335b18aafc6e","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/92ec358f5e67ca7901f9e70437c2193ffa4577b2"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/9c0e25757529d3e2f4e5acaf8460c653eeccb050","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4d554bb149e2d2211d4b543967fac64100ac4512","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6295b177832f445298c1c99af374d3ca04553742","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/1db2947e807ee5649ce1859e78a7825b1926bfd4","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3366fd4270831225e5f049ed2b5d9ea9e4cb9912","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/2928628f34dc9d30f3fa0e522827ebff9f282400","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e024da9fdfe30bba466ff367212da92c910d8b6f","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/dd4510c9591bf48b6255367070c88e69c97a5fb0"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2021035S,\n author={Stanton, Jason and Wodrich, Nigel and Matier, Chris},\n title={Trans Mountain Pipeline - Financial and Economic Considerations - Update},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2021035S,\n author={Stanton, Jason and Wodrich, Nigel and Matier, Chris},\n title={Le pipeline Trans Mountain - Consid\\\u0027{e}rations financi\\`{e}res et \\\u0027{e}conomiques - Mise \\`{a} jour},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-2021-006-S","is_published":"2021-01-26T20:16:02.000000Z","release_date":"2020-05-26T04:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Reporting of Gains and Losses in the Government\u2019s Financial Results","title_fr":"D\u00e9claration de gains et de pertes dans les r\u00e9sultats financiers du gouvernement du Canada","internal_id":"RP-2021-006-S","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report responds to the Government\u2019s public consultation, *Proposed Changes to Reporting of Gains and Losses in the Government\u2019s Financial Results*. The report provides the PBO\u2019s comments on changing the way that actuarial gains and losses are reported in the Government\u0027s financial results.","abstract_fr":"Ce rapport r\u00e9pond \u00e0 la consultation publique du gouvernement, *Changements propos\u00e9s \u00e0 la d\u00e9claration de gains et de pertes dans les r\u00e9sultats financiers du gouvernement du Canada*. Le rapport fournit les commentaires du DPB sur la question de changer la mani\u00e8re de d\u00e9clarer les gains et les pertes actuariels dans les r\u00e9sultats financiers du gouvernement du Canada.","highlights":null},"updated_at":"2021-07-26T17:56:53.000000Z","type":"RP","slug":"RP-2021-006-S--reporting-gains-losses-in-government-financial-results--declaration-gains-pertes-dans-resultats-financiers-gouvernement-canada","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2021-006-S--reporting-gains-losses-in-government-financial-results--declaration-gains-pertes-dans-resultats-financiers-gouvernement-canada","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/RP-2021-006-S--reporting-gains-losses-in-government-financial-results--declaration-gains-pertes-dans-resultats-financiers-gouvernement-canada"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2021-006-S--reporting-gains-losses-in-government-financial-results--declaration-gains-pertes-dans-resultats-financiers-gouvernement-canada","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/RP-2021-006-S--reporting-gains-losses-in-government-financial-results--declaration-gains-pertes-dans-resultats-financiers-gouvernement-canada"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/b973d5e8d351cfd0216369850a65626372ee20982bd70ae9bbdddc5cab6de5fa"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/f85b6dca0756bc4d928113eb715ab189c51b74f3d41bdbe135afa0e7df65a548"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4c31176dc2e2b521dd0652c2cf7dea5ffc5a7544","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/de542d25da80bae76ac53510896a9ed0f70fec52","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b00965d4c9447371cf0621b815a8767a1fbd374e","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/5404fc9bc2b00a3d9c380b1d255c65b8d1e884f2","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d15951a488191a00e300b95f3e7b4f8a8180e95d","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/d7f3bff9835fe2491d55c913dc9d381aac726434","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6701d5b2f51e91b50d89ce34e1f3518a87901a42","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f2a78d559be7a36135db29f35fd335d224931999"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/b7a12b279bad3cabc34fb9d57e393103c6923739","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/6851ca6fb52e1247a89a63f1fab163ad673aacb8","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4ae88891d3ae60ba22e6676ccc9204b714770ddf","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/4b58036e17451279c3da29363f6d33102583bb1c","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bfc471c158c655a90a21eb97210f78305ebec802","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/decc6cc2cf5e3743f284710a097dd5696f4c28a0","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/914af5bb5be7c68c6f357fbcde292129258dc9c9","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/94fdedf5eaf5dd750cfd4f52797c8f4002f90364"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-RP2021006S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and Matier, Chris and Shaw, Trevor},\n title={Reporting of Gains and Losses in the Government\u2019s Financial Results},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP2021006S,\n author={Jacques, Jason and Matier, Chris and Shaw, Trevor},\n title={D\\\u0027{e}claration de gains et de pertes dans les r\\\u0027{e}sultats financiers du gouvernement du Canada},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2020,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-1819-392","is_published":"2021-06-21T18:23:09.000000Z","release_date":"2019-01-31T05:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Canada\u2019s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline \u2013 Economic and Financial Considerations","title_fr":"Achat du pipeline Trans Mountain par le Canada : consid\u00e9rations financi\u00e8res et \u00e9conomiques","internal_id":"RP-1819-392","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides financial and economic analysis relating to the Government of Canada\u2019s This report provides financial and economic analysis relating to the Government of Canada\u2019s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, Expansion Project and related assets.of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, Expansion Project and related assets.","abstract_fr":"Dans l\u2019\u00c9nonc\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l\u2019automne 2018, le gouvernement du Canada a annonc\u00e9 l\u2019achat, en ao\u00fbt 2018, du pipeline Trans Mountain, du projet d\u2019agrandissement du r\u00e9seau de Trans Mountain et d\u2019autres actifs connexes, pour une somme de 4,4 milliards de 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author={Matier, Chris and Srivatsan, Varun and Stanton, Jason and Wodrich, Nigel},\n title={Canada\u2019s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline - Economic and Financial Considerations},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2019,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP1819392,\n author={Matier, Chris and Srivatsan, Varun and Stanton, Jason and Wodrich, Nigel},\n title={Achat du pipeline Trans Mountain par le Canada : consid\\\u0027{e}rations financi\\`{e}res et \\\u0027{e}conomiques},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2019,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-1819-498","is_published":"2021-08-23T20:32:06.000000Z","release_date":"2018-08-22T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"PBO\u0027s Approach to Measuring Potential GDP","title_fr":"Calcul du PIB potentiel : m\u00e9thode du DPB","internal_id":"RP-1819-498","metadata":{"abstract_en":"Potential GDP is a measure of the sustainable 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It is typically defined as the level of output that can be achieved with available resources (e.g., labour, capital and technology) without creating inflationary pressures. As such, potential GDP provides a natural benchmark for assessing economic performance at a macro level.","abstract_fr":"Le PIB potentiel correspond \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 de production soutenable d\u2019une \u00e9conomie. Il est normalement d\u00e9fini comme \u00e9tant le niveau de production que permettent d\u2019obtenir les ressources existantes (p. ex. main-d\u2019\u0153uvre, capital et technologie) sans cr\u00e9er de pressions inflationnistes. D\u00e8s lors, le PIB potentiel constitue le rep\u00e8re tout indiqu\u00e9 pour \u00e9valuer le rendement au niveau 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author={Matier, Chris},\n title={PBO\u0027s Approach to Measuring Potential GDP},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2018,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP1819498,\n author={Matier, Chris},\n title={Calcul du PIB potentiel : m\\\u0027{e}thode du DPB},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2018,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-1819-497","is_published":"2021-06-21T19:21:45.000000Z","release_date":"2018-08-22T04:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"Status Report on Phase 1 of the Investing in Canada Plan","title_fr":"Rapport d\u2019\u00e9tape sur la phase 1 du plan Investir dans le Canada","internal_id":"RP-1819-497","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report a status update on Phase 1 of the Government\u2019s Investing in Canada Plan, which was announced in Budget 2016 and intended to provide a short-term economic boost to the economy.","abstract_fr":"Le pr\u00e9sent rapport fait 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author={Haile, Negash and Matier, Chris},\n title={Status Report on Phase 1 of the Investing in Canada Plan},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2018,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-RP1819497,\n author={Haile, Negash and Matier, Chris},\n title={Rapport d\u2019\\\u0027{e}tape sur la phase 1 du plan Investir dans le Canada},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2018,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}} {"id":"RP-1819-377","is_published":"2021-09-21T15:05:05.000000Z","release_date":"2018-05-22T13:00:00.000000Z","title_en":"The Impact of a Pan-Canadian Carbon Pricing Levy on PBO\u2019s GDP Projection","title_fr":"Incidence sur le PIB d\u2019une redevance pancanadienne sur le carbone : Hypoth\u00e8se du DPB","internal_id":"RP-1819-377","metadata":{"abstract_en":"This report provides additional detail related to the economic impact of the carbon pricing levy presented in PBO\u2019s 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of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Though the agreement is extensive, its impact in aggregate on the Canadian economy is likely to be small in comparison to NAFTA. Nonetheless, for individual sectors the impact could be significant since there are quite a few sectors whose goods currently have tariffs that exceed 10 per cent.","abstract_fr":"Le DPB s\u2019est pench\u00e9 sur l\u2019incidence pr\u00e9vue de l\u2019Accord \u00e9conomique et commercial global (AECG) sur le Canada. M\u00eame si l\u2019accord est de grande envergure, il ne devrait pas avoir une incidence globale importante sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne par rapport \u00e0 celle qu\u2019a eue l\u2019ALENA. Certains secteurs pourraient n\u00e9anmoins \u00eatre touch\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re consid\u00e9rable, notamment ceux dont les biens se voient actuellement appliquer des droits de douane sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 10 %.","highlights":null},"updated_at":"2021-06-09T13:02:10.000000Z","type":"LIBARC","slug":"LIBARC-1718-340--the-canada-eu-comprehensive-economic-and-trade--laccord-economique-et-commercial-global-entre","permalinks":{"en":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LIBARC-1718-340--the-canada-eu-comprehensive-economic-and-trade--laccord-economique-et-commercial-global-entre","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/en\/publications\/LIBARC-1718-340--the-canada-eu-comprehensive-economic-and-trade--laccord-economique-et-commercial-global-entre"},"fr":{"website":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LIBARC-1718-340--the-canada-eu-comprehensive-economic-and-trade--laccord-economique-et-commercial-global-entre","preview":"https:\/\/www.pbo-dpb.ca\/fr\/publications\/LIBARC-1718-340--the-canada-eu-comprehensive-economic-and-trade--laccord-economique-et-commercial-global-entre"}},"artifacts":{"main":{"en":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/18a9f9d0042ed120fe7eda7b9417e663f5996f1a2813421a9cacf03340aba51a"},"fr":{"public":"https:\/\/distribution-a617274656661637473.pbo-dpb.ca\/df887704af47fec7345b635af933fe85c5e82dfa6341cac387fffcb1e637b7db"}}},"coverpages":{"distribution":{"fr":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/de9bca75035f8fbbd0493069243b8ae813ba2681e02285ce5b89e33f469564aa","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/34742430960b4ed51254d95830579ed50eff4b91b170b3d7097b8c8dc61af6d9","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/619e153f702bb8fc2b801f6afeee8ddd3a842140e5d10d7de97615f8a01a530c","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f9f267b58d2cca6f130c299952845eb45b23cd8ec170c3733ea7fa7ed6d8f447","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/f29d4f8eac4bf35bb70033504d5279cc767080f307ed463612babffa77459f49","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/66db67736d1f7a66ae3a30659bc56362a9e645fe3a9b0e74161913a400dbd58d","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/16438ae7982f5efaa57222e312692f19eb2fd067d8ac2cb4734ee4b2cb4279d3","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3939d63827da88f802ed29df0a04478b5ff3af651f609e7fc2f7f0c0454f7293"},"en":{"small":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8d42b9255a815cb3f989af42e39cb36e6b6dc65126ca48641db6958ff933799e","large":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/3df07e8f4b7d2a4a119699ec4b06b85746b5f5ad69deea4813f06a772a5432eb","h150_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/0b62efc631511c951650ebb19a6f0f76e4ff1d142d27f1eafc798e316defc8a7","h150_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/e651ed18548574312feabc7d94f94a833b825af55def62fa40e7f0884ecee7a5","h300_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/8a87896a0c6201d560ffa072104c637d148d8e984fbd79321125fc648c5735dc","h300_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/bff262395ad9d52bd76817df71323f1f06834929b11aeeab669ace00f2f3cd81","h600_png_optimized":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/56d34ed86747a01972f6cc52f266b89e95e6f2f0ad8fb0a75011b34e0ea52742","h600_webp":"https:\/\/distribution-i696d61676573.pbo-dpb.ca\/ff7b608341e28e9f491e8368641ea6b1c60c3c87efea15bb384c23fdb87e3e5e"}}},"bills":[],"bibtex":{"en":"@techreport{PBO-LIBARC1718340,\n author={Askari, Mostafa and Bagnoli, Philip and MacDonald, Duncan and Matier, Chris},\n title={The Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement: A Prospective Analysis},\n institution={The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer},\n year=2017,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}","fr":"@techreport{DPB-LIBARC1718340,\n author={Askari, Mostafa and Bagnoli, Philip and MacDonald, Duncan and Matier, Chris},\n title={L\u2019Accord \\\u0027{e}conomique et commercial global entre le Canada et l\u2019UE : Analyse prospective},\n institution={Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget},\n year=2017,\n \n address = \u0022Ottawa, ON\u0022\n}"}}